ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 8, SHALL RETURN

FIRST RACE

Thought DUDES LAWYER ran a solid race in defeat in that bow, seemingly with run on the turn but forced to try to find some room into the lane, and then closing ground late; should be well spotted behind a potential duel behind likely speeds CODE METTLE and SARJENALLI. The former is the 9/5 Morning Line favorite despite the fact that her lone start to date came on the turf, and she’s dropping in for a tag off the layoff, but she has been working well and she doesn’t meet the deepest of fields; the latter is also moving from Maiden Special Weight company into a maiden claimer in her first start off a break, albeit a shorter one, but she is inside her main pace rival and she also has been training well toward her return.

SECOND RACE

MADAME ROUGE benefited greatly from the advantageous race flow in that maiden score but she has to be respected off the Beyer she posted there, as she posted a 55 where the average winning figure for the class and distance is 46; could be the controlling speed in this first start vs. winners as well. DANGEROUS CURVES has been turfing, and her lone career win did come on the grass, but while she was up the track in her only dirt sprint try thus far she was in against much better there; ran off on the lead in that return from the layoff, in a turf route, but she has license to improve on this turnback. CAJUN DELIGHT could be the favorite here despite having posted single-digit figures in each of her last two starts, and the fact that she is dropping in class for her only her second start in about 16 months; surely can win this but certainly not the right value play.

THIRD RACE

TICKET TO ALASKA won a slow maiden sprint race in his local debut last time but he did rally strongly to get up in the last jump, and while the dam was a sprinter she did produced a couple of runners who scored going long, if not on turf; might be worth a stab at a playable price for the meet’s top connections. JEHA took to the turf in his own debut on the surface, and trainer Mike Dini scores at a solid rate (22%) with last-out winners; he benefitted from a clean trip behind a contested pace in that score but there’s enough speed in here to create a similar set-up. Trainer Gregory Viands is represented by two runners in here, JUST NOD AND SMILE and ALPHA CHI RHO, both making their turf and route debuts; the former had pace excuses in two if his last three but the latter has speed and better figures on the main track.

FOURTH RACE

MALIO’S is widest but he looms the controlling speed in this sprint for Bennett and Camcho; he was caught up in a duel in his latest, putting away his pace rival before yielding to the closers, but he could well shake loose and set his own pace today. OX TROT has some tactical speed and an inside post, and he could be the one to get first run on the top pick; worked a bullet for this last week. KELA BREW turns back from a route to a sprint but he has enough positional speed to stay close from the start, which could be an edge if the pace is in fact controlled.

FIFTH RACE

LORD BYRON was off the board under similar conditions last time out but he made a couple of premature moves in that race and that cost him late, as he gave way in the lane; he’s winless in seven turf starts thus far but his best grass figures put him in the mix with these. FEISTY KITTEN had a very tough trip in that seasonal debut last time out, caught very wide on the first turn and then running into traffic in the lane; has lots of room to improve today given a better trip. ANGEL’S ENTRY ships to Tampa for the first time for trainer Kathleen O’Connell and is a threat by default, as he meets an average field for the class level; clearly has upside in only his second career start on this surface.

SIXTH RACE

FRENCH KISS ME was in a tough spot in that last sprint, as it was a race that was a little light on pace yet the final time came up quick, a scenario that makes closing ground difficult; as a horse

who was looking to rally late there he should be expected to improve off that race, just as next-out winners Consilium and Mozano, who were also off the pace, did in their returns. SECRET MAGICIAN was run down by Consilium in the late stages after making the lead in mid-stretch in his latest, but that effort clearly makes him a threat today under similar conditions; needs pace but should get it. ROARING RIVER is kin to two starters, both of them winners; barn scored with firster Bionic Bottle (10-1) in a maiden claimer here on Christmas Eve.

SEVENTH RACE

D’CRAZINESS benefited from a closer-friendly race flow to win that last one but he did impress with a determined inside rally to get up in time, and the resulting Beyer gives him strong credibility in this return try at the same class level; logical enough if he’s able to run to those steady recent figures. HOT AND HEAVY scored in an off-the-turf race last time but there’s little doubt that he’s at his best on the grass, and that win may have simply signified that he’s in good form, and fits well with the locals; worked a bullet for new trainer Tony Wilson since that score, and though he’s wide here he has the tactical speed to get position from the start. CAMMACK disappointed in his first start off the layoff but he stands to improve here with a race under his belt and with the class drop; back Beyers make him easy to like.

EIGHTH RACE

SHALL RETURN settled for the show behind a two-speed exacta in her first start off the layoff, a sprint which came up on the fast side, but she can make amends today given a more favorable race flow; that’s a likely scenario, as there are confirmed speeds to her inside and out in the form of FIFTYSHADESOGRAYCE, MARCHING IN and PAPA’S ISLA DOLL, and she figures to be in an ideal stalking spot behind those rivals. STORMY BOSS cuts back to a sprint for her first start since the summer but she does have a win at six furlongs to her credit; she’s another who stands to benefit from the expected pace scenario. BUSTIN HEARTS was behind the top pick last time out but she had even more to do late after sitting a little further off the pace than that runner; figures to be running late if the race flow develops as expected.

NINTH RACE

PRETTY PRINCESS finished off the board last time when she was unable to sustain her bid for the lead but that was a good effort in defeat, and she could well move forward today if she’s able to make a better-timed run; needs to stay a little closer to the pace, it seems, especially given the lack of obvious speed in this finale. PATSY’S BIG GIRL will be a handful if she’s able to scratch into this race off the AE list, as she ran a strong race in defeat when last seen, closing through the lane in a race that was light on speed; obvious contender if she gets to run. LOVELY TROPHY GIRL is a threat by default in her debut, as meets a seemingly average field, and trainer Michael Stidham’s success with firsters — particularly in maiden claimers — only adds to the appeal; pedigree lacks punch (she’s the first starter out of the dam, who was winless in two starts, both dirt sprints) but her strength lies in her connections.