ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 8, CIMPL MAN

FIRST RACE

ARABIAN STORY simply faced much better in all six of his Indiana starts and ran well in every single one of them. So what happened last out? He got very little play at 14-1 and only had two local works all while going two turns on the dirt. Class drop is just right as is the cut back to an elongated sprint. This race didn’t come up that tough either. HEAVY FAVOR has some speed and there isn’t much pace in here. He has won here before and has some well spaced works all for a barn that is 22% with their claimers. HERZEN is feeling good and has won at this tricky distance. At times, this gelding has some tactical zip but we expect Shannon Uske to have this horse off the pace in the early running.

SECOND RACE

WILMAS IRISH ROVER is on a roll as he has won three in a row but you can see that, right? Well, he draws nicely for this and has a local work. We like that his regular rider gets a leg up. This barn is 25% with horses that won their last start. The only knock is that this guy hasn’t tried the local dirt before. JIMMY D has done all of his winning on the turf but that isn’t an option here as the turf course is closed for another week and a half. This gelding is just better since the barn change/circuit switch. Lack of speed hurts. RATE FOR ME has won his last couple and at double digits for both. We have seen some Los Al shippers win here early in the meet. UNLEASH THE BEAST finds the front end but after that .....

THIRD RACE

JANET’S MAE simply faced better the last three times that she ran on this dirt (4, 5, and 6 back). Her Canterbury tries weren’t nearly as good but some horses just don’t like that dirt. We spy three horses with some speed so drawing outside all of them is another plus. Hot jock/barn combo is noted. B C Z MIDDLETON has hit the exacta on this dirt in 10 of 17 starts so there it that. This mare wants to pass horses and if things break just right then she will get a legit pace to chase. A better price than some we would think. SPUN LINE is feeling great. She didn’t beat much in recent Reming

ton win when sent off at 3 to 10. Rarick is large and in charge now so pay attention to 3 for 4 tab off the claim.

FOURTH RACE

SWEET RYAN has some decent Beyers and doesn’t face much in this maiden claiming affair. New barn and a change of scenery can only help. Local works are well spaced. HOMEMADE LOVIN has tactical speed now and then. We like that she draws outside the two speeds today. She is capable of a Beyer in the high 20’s to low 30’s and that certainly fits in this race. We would be hard pressed to take the favorite in this race. SWEET REGARDS goes second time this dirt and is the inside speed. For some, that will be enough. A quick turnaround is noted. CAT IN THE PULPIT is by a 0 for 51 debut sire (8% with all starters). Her dam went 7-1-2-1 and earned 61K. Both sibs failed to win. This 6YO gets a late start to racing. Why is this mare the 2-1 morning line favorite?

FIFTH RACE

ZIPZAPZOOM has a few tries that fit at this level but that isn’t why we are drawn to her. She lands in a new barn and we really like the way Shawn Davis does things. This filly showed improved front speed last out and that is a big plus. If she can find the front end then that would be huge. MESANGE did face better in Indiana of late. Even her recent Turfway try was solid. Yet to run here and we don’t see a local work as of this writing. Lack of speed at this level is a small knock. She still holds a Beyer advantage over all of these. LADY MECHANIC drops way down in class. Homebred has a new trainer for this in Vitali (a storied career to say the least). This filly gets in light with the apprentice up and should have no problem getting two turns.

SIXTH RACE

SHINNY tried easier in his last two and ran better. Yet he is now a gelding. He should have a good running style for today’s elongated sprint and draws fine. The Evans barn is having a good meet and that is no surprise. MO GEE goes for Diodoro and drops in class. A no brainer, right? This gelding tries the dirt for the first time but that alone won’t dissuade us. He has some tactical zip and draws inside for a good trip. LATIGO RIO has some speed and draws mostly outside. There is other speed in here but they might be content to let this one go early. BEA’S BOY exits a key race where 3 of 6 returned to win with figs of 73, 81, and 67 (another finished 2nd with a 70 Beyer).

SEVENTH RACE

BECKHAM JAMES is bred to run all day and tries two turns for the first time. Second time with new barn can’t hurt nor second time Stevens up. This colt will be forwardly placed today. Not sure we will get 3-1 morning line though. EQUIVOCATOR has improved his Beyer in every start. First Lasix can’t hurt. This barn is a nice 34% second off this type of layoff. There is no racing at Golden Gate right now in case you were wondering why this colt shows up here. SATURDAY VALUE is by a 10% debut sire. His dam went 12-1-2-2 and earned 5K. One of two sibs won but only once. Work tab is perfect and we love those longer works for today’s debut route. GOLEM exits a key race where 2 of 8 returned to win with figs of 30 and 49.

EIGHTH RACE

CIMPL MAN has a grinding style that often works well in an elongated sprint. The class drop from SoCal/NoCal open claimers to Turf Paradise restricted foes is big. The Wong barn is shipping in live runners. OLYMPIC EXPRESS did win his only try at this distance and did so beating special weights at Zia. Works are well spaced and he escapes stakes foes. Trainer stats are rock solid across the board. CONQUEST SMARTEE is better of late. He has won at this distance before. When feeing great, he is capable of a Beyer in the 80’s and that certainly fits here. The rail draw going this distance is a small knock though.