ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 2, BURNIN TURF

FIRST RACE

Saturday first post, 12 noon. I WILL NOT gets the nod in a perplexing Cal-bred N1X sprint, based on his solid current form and versatile running style. ‘NOT figures to be forwardly placed behind the speed, from an outside post in the clear. Assuming two front-runners duel, ‘NOT could get an ideal trip tucked behind the leading flight. BRACE FOR IMPACT is speed, and though he needed seven starts to finally win a maiden race last out, he certainly did improve late in his 4-year-old season. Now 5, he will set or press the pace from the outside post. Depending on how much speed his main pace rival produces, ‘IMPACT could get brave. RINSE AND REPEAT has a style similar to the top choice. JETOVATOR is a turf specialist in peak form, but uncertain if he is as effective on dirt. SHADY EMPIRE also is speed, he could get in the way of BRACE FOR IMPACT.

SECOND RACE

BURNIN TURF is poised for a maiden win. His thirdplace comeback in a similar Cal-bred maiden turf mile was solid. He pressed the pace, made the lead, then got swallowed by a pair of late-runners. With a comeback under his belt and blinkers off, he should make a forward move. If he starts favored as expected, an interesting trainer stat applies. Dan Blacker’s last seven turf-maiden favorites produced four wins, three seconds. ‘TURF is the most probable winner on the card. SECRET CLUB finished in front of the top choice last out in his first on turf and around two turns. His turf-route improvement was no surprise considering he is by Clubhouse Ride. Look for ‘CLUB to roll late. MAMBA COOL compromised his own chances when he lugged in through the stretch last out. Gelded since, improvement possible. FLY BUDDY FLY makes his first start in four months. He finished an okay fifth last out in his initial turf route. He is a sibling to seven-time winner Fly to Mars.

THIRD RACE

Tons of speed in this N1X for Cal-bred 3yos benefits route-to-sprint closer MISTER BOLD. He won his first two starts in sprints, then lost his punch last out at two turns. Back to one turn, Lasix and blinkers on, ideal pace scenario, he can mow them down. SWIFT AS I AM improved each successive start. Although eligible to an easier starter allowance, he enters with the top figures. He showed off-the-pace versatility both SoCal starts. ROCKTILLYOUDROP is speed on the rail. His winning debut in October was solid; he ran two pace rivals into the ground then was purchased privately and transferred to trainer Peter Miller. He might be the speed of the speed, with blinkers on. But he will be under severe pace pressure breaking from the rail with lots of speed to his outside. Comebacker PAPPY BOYINGTON will rally late in a race that should unfold at a quick tempo.

FOURTH RACE

Six furlongs is shorter than she prefers, but WARREN’S SHOWTIME enters this $150k Cal-bred turf stakes the class of the field. G3 winner last year vs. her age group, plus four restricted stakes victories and G1- and G2 placings, the daughter of Clubhouse Ride enters as the “best hose” in the field. But she needs pace to run at, and there isn’t much of that. Also, the SA course at six furlongs has kinder to front-runners/pressers than closers. This is not an easy spot for the likely favorite. LEGGS GALORE does have speed, and the field includes only one other front-runner who is not a confirmed starter. LEGGS GALORE is 3-for-3 on turf, aimed specifically to this race, and should be positioned one-two early. The front end might not be particularly crowded. SHEZA GIRLY GIRL has a shot at a price. She did not care for the Del Mar turf last out according to her rider, but won her only start on the Santa Anita turf. Although the pace scenario does not flatter her closing style, doubledigit odds might justify the risk. She could hit the

board at a big number. SHE’S DEVOTED is twofor-two and being tested for class. MO SEE CAL is the front-runner that could keep the pace honest. If she starts, ‘CAL would be wheeling back in six days. If she scratches, LEGGS GALORE might be loose on the lead.

FIFTH RACE

Seven-start maiden COMPLETE CONTROL returns to the maiden-50 class level of her two runner-up finishes in fall, and faces an apparently ordinary field. Standout, based on figs. WINTER STAR improved second out, runner-up by a by a head. Her pattern is going in the right direction. MEDUSA’S GAZE also improved second out; she flashed improved speed and finished third. Trainer Kristin Mulhall is on a roll; she won with her last four SA starters. Second-time starter LATER DAYS is eligible to improve off a midpack debut. The truth is, if the top choice does not win, this is anyone’s race.

SIXTH RACE

This turf mile stakes for Cal-bred fillies is a good spot to take a shot with the maiden WARRENS CANDY GIRL. Her runner-up last out was wild, in a good way. She took up sharply into the first turn, losing position and losing ground, she lost ground rallying wide on the far turn, was about eight-wide into the lane, finished super and missed by a nose. With a different trip, she would have won by open lengths. Each race better than the race before, the Clubhouse Ride filly can upset with clear sailing. CLOSING REMARKS drops into the Cal-bred ranks after a tough trip in a G3. She was blocked into and through the lane, and never had a chance. Her fourth in an open stakes (not Cal-bred) two back is as fast as any of these. SENSIBLE CAT could go favored, based on a sharp maiden win over the top choice two back, and a decisive stakes victory last out on dirt at LRC. No knocks on a good filly, except potentially low odds. GOVERNOR GOTEVEN, sprint stakes winner last summer on dirt and runner-up last out in a dirt stakes, switches to turf. However, her pedigree leans toward dirt.

SEVENTH RACE

THE CHOSEN VRON faces a tall order in this route stakes for Cal-bred 3yos, but his debut was so fast (86 Beyer) and margin so big (six+ lengths) he gets top billing despite a challenging pace scenario. ‘VRON faces other hurdles as well: wheeling back in three weeks, just his second start, first route, and first time vs. winners. But he is the fastest in the field, and if can avoid a duel with his pace rivals, he can be gone. Would be wary backing him at a short price, but recognize he is the one to beat. GOOD WITH PEOPLE pressed and faded last out in his first route, and also faces a tall order due to his up-front style and two-turn uncertainty. But he is a two-time stakes winner drawn outside the favorite, and could get a comfortable pressing trip. WARRENS CANDY MAN, full sibling to multiple stakes winner/race-4 favorite Warren’s Showtime, will be rolling late in a race that could set up for his style. He is a maiden, but getting better and gets an ideal pace setup. POSITIVITY was overmatched in the G2 Los Alamitos Futurity. Back with Calbreds, off-the-pace contender.

EIGHTH RACE

Fourth by two lengths in the Grade 2 Hollywood Turf Cup equals horse-to-beat status for ACCLIMATE in this Cal-bred turf stakes. The frontrunning veteran was a top horse prior to his oneyear layoff, and came back super in the Turf Cup. He is a front-runner facing other potential speed, so it is mainly a question of rationing his pace. If he can, the two-time graded winner in 2019 can lead gate to wire. NORTH COUNTY GUY was no match for the top choice last out, but if one bad race can be thrown nd out, he fits perfectly. The best race of his career was two back at this ninefurlong distance, over this turf course. Must use for this season’s bridesmaid stable. Richard Baltas entered the week with two wins, 10 seconds. That ratio will change soon. WARD ‘N JERRY is a veteran due to win this stakes race. He ran third at 69-1 in 2017, runner-up last year as the favorite. Already a G3 winner on this course, SA turf is where he has done his best running. MARGOT’S BOY is a Clubhouse Ride newly turned 4-year-old whose best races are still in front of him. They were for his sire, who became a G2 winner and G1-placed at 5. ‘BOY is not fast enough yet on figs, but his pedigree suggests he has room to improve. Price play.

NINTH RACE

LOUD MOUTH turned things around when trainer Steve Knapp shortened him to sprints. He enters this Cal-bred sprint stakes off a pair of highly rated wins including a similar Cal-bred stakes last out in which he beat a good horse (Take the One O One). ‘MOUTH is fast on numbers, the current leader of the Cal-bred sprint division, with an adaptable style. He has a current-racing edge over last year’s top Cal-bred sprinter FASHIONABLY FAST. But this is the first start since August for ‘FAST, a four-time stakes winner with the deepest resume. The question is, how big will he fire first start back? This is a tough field. An upset contender is high-odds closer CLUB ASPEN. He was given a race in his comeback three weeks ago, preparing for this stakes race. A closing sprinter in a race with tons of gas, his stablemate insure speed to run at. Similar to the longshot in race 8, ‘ASPEN is newly turned 4yo by Clubhouse Ride with room to improve. He is already a stakes winner and twotime stakes-placed. Lightly raced TIGRE DI SLUGO ran the race of his career last out in his comeback, a highly rated N1X win vs. open company. The aforementioned stablemate for ‘ASPEN is speedball BRICKYARD YARD. He is a virtual Quarter Horse who will take them as far as he can and/or set it up for a late-runner.

TENTH RACE

ANOTHER EDDIE broke slowly and finished well for third in a promising career debut on dirt. Excellent first start for the Square Eddie filly, who should improve on turf based on pedigree. Trainer Ben Cecil’s last three second-start maidens produced two wins and one second. ‘EDDIE is a full sibling to veteran Cal-bred stakes winner An Eddie Surprise. OMG IT’S JESSICA finished more than three lengths in front of the top choice last out, and could vie for favoritism. The speedster ran super first out setting the pace and tiring to second. Long gone second out? SQUARED SHADY underachieved so far in her five-start career, but she is slowly getting better and returns to her preferred footing (turf) while adding Lasix. MISS BAYLEE is a comeback maiden returning for new connections. He was a highly regarded 2yo early last season, sold privately, and making a comeback. His best is still ahead.