ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 7, TIMED OUT FIRST RACE

MR. BUCKLEY was only second-best in a race that came back fast - and hasn’t really panned out subsequently - in his debut early last year, then ran a much-improved race second time out when chasing wide and finally fighting his way to a short lead late in a race that collapsed; missed more time after that race last summer and returns to face open company, but this is a field more full of questions than anything else and MR. BUCKLEY won’t be the favorite. STRAFE a War Front filly facing colts first time out for a trainer whose firsters win often enough, just at underlaid prices; half to three graded stakes winners worked quickly from the gate last month and has continued to progress from there. O’TROUBLE the one to beat with all of the figures on the way in, but also 0-5 already without many excuses to point to - though he did face some good horses early on - and he has yet to reach par for this level; would be no surprise, especially if the firsters can’t run, but he is not my kind of horse at a very short price.

SECOND RACE

AIR ATTACK was part of a fast pace two back going a mile, then tried to cut back last week to no avail while catching a wet track; all three wins to date have come around two turns and like his stretching back out from his inside draw as he makes his second start off the claim. EKHTIBAAR didn’t get the greatest trip last time when dropped all the way down following two poor performances off the bench, but he still only went evenly in the stretch once clear and was no threat to a pair of rivals he will meet up with again in this spot; has the back races to be very hard on this field and expecting him to show speed as he steps back up off the claim for Atras. SUPER DUDE dropped to this level to win two back in the slop, then caught another wet track off the Rudy re-claim and tired after dueling with the eventual longshot winner of that race; handles the added distance and can easily rebound with a better effort in this spot.

THIRD RACE

ROYAL KAZ showed speed in his first three starts

at Penn National without winning, though he did earn two of the better figures in this field in his first two starts sprinting; cuts back and drops back down after stretching out on short rest when last seen to contest the pace ahead of his winning entrymate. HEREISSIO a firster landing in the right kind of race for a good trainer, and he has some pedigree behind him as a son of Mission Impazible (wins with 10% of his first-time starters) and debut winner Dehere Miss, whose first three foals are all multiple winners. BRICKYARD is 0-3 on dirt on the way in, but hr didn’t run poorly two back at this level in a race that fell apart late; cuts back and has more speed than it may appear.

FOURTH RACE

BLITCHTON LADY dropped in class for the first time here 12 days ago and easily handled that field on the cut back en route to a new top figure; right back in a logical spot off the claim for an excellent trainer while kept to the distance of both career wins. BUYER’S REMORSE alternated between turf and dirt since arriving east and was competitive without winning while catching some fast-paced races; went out of town most recently and had all the best of it on the lead while dominating Parx maidens with a new top figure. BONUS BABY concentrated on turf once dropped in class last summer and ran a couple of improved races on that surface, though the competition likely had more to do with things than the surface as she returned to dirt last time and buried maiden claimers after a perfect trip; steps up.

FIFTH RACE

FOUR OF SWORDS got loose when posting his lone career win at Gulfstream nearly a year ago and immediately missed time; ran better than it looks at this level last time when chasing a sharp winner while wide throughout and getting outfinished by closers late. BIG BOY MO missed by a nose and earned a career-best 79 Beyer the last time he faced claiming company; starts back at the right level after facing better in his final three starts prior to the layoff and his ability to race from off the pace may give him an edge in this race. BULWARK seemed to be in position to run well off the layoff last time while drawn to the inside with speed over a track featuring a strong rail, but he gave way readily after showing brief speed vs. better; class drop helps and he has the races to strongly contend here.

SIXTH RACE

LORD CAMDEN switched to dirt for a pair of closely spaced starts last summer and settle for third both times while earning two of the better figures in this field; returns from the layoff with a positive trainer change and picks up Carmouche. IMPERIO D has his the board in half of his starts and has consistently earned competitive figures along the way for Rudy; has already had his chances but appears to be a contender once again. SECOND FORTUNE has yet to come close in four dirt starts and was most recently seen showing brief speed and getting left far behind going a mile in the mud; lightly-raced gelding cuts back after catching wet tracks in his last two starts.

SEVENTH RACE

TIMED OUT was competitive vs. MSW rivals at Monmouth over the summer before taking a shot on turf; had a lot go right in her return to the main track when last seen, but she also looked strong throughout that race en route to dominating that field through the stretch and earning a 66 Beyer that stands out in this field in the process; the horse to beat off the claim for Rudy - past five years, first after claimed by, maiden winner last, dirt sprint: 3 for 5 (with two seconds), $7.76 ROI. TARGETED RETURN debuted sprinting at the MSW level at Churchill and couldn’t keep up from early on for top connections; went turf to dirt last time and did better, with the drop in class making the difference, though that was not exactly an impressive win; cuts back with lasix on and does not land in a particularly tough spot. PONCHO SONG appeared to need his debut sprinting at the end of last year, and he really seemed to benefit from that run when parlaying a perfect trip into a maiden win over a mile in his second start; keeps improving and is getting significant class relief for this as he cuts back in distance.

EIGHTH RACE

OPEN LENGTHS ran a race two back breaking his maiden that is going to make him tough in here, and did so over this track and trip; drops back down after getting in too tough over a wet track last time. ALLIED INVASION couldn’t cope with a strong pace going a mile last time and wasn’t a factor in his first start off the claim; first two dirt starts weren’t bad and he should handle this added distance. SUPER WICKED CHARM’s pone career win came over this course and distance last year, and he continued to race competitively in spots after that while switching between turf and dirt; not impossible at a square price but his recent lack pf speed is a drawback.