ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, PATSY’S BIG GIRL

FIRST RACE

Thought HE HAD A SECRET held well after sitting close to the pace in that last try, surrounded by closers on the wire in a race which set up nicely for the ralliers; has the rail and enough speed to shake loose against this short field, which appears to be light on pace. PAPA RALPH J returns to a sprint and this does seem to be his best game, which makes it easy to dismiss his last two tries here; has enough early foot to stay close in the opening stages, and if the pace is in fact controlled that will give him an edge on the stone closers. HAY HAY MY MY also could benefit from a forward trip; no threat in his return from the layoff but he may have needed a race, and today’s turnback should help his cause.

SECOND RACE

HEATHER HILLS has speed but she has also rated effectively in the past, and that versatility should come in handy in this abbreviated sprint, which features a good amount of pace; takes the blinkers off, which figures to help her to relax some early on. BERBERSLILBRIEBRIE, on the other hand, adds blinkers for her local debut; Penn shipper had a pace excuse in her latest but should be very well set up in this sprint. PAPA’S ISLA DOLL was against the flow in each of her last three, and things don’t get any easier for her here in terms of pace, but she has license to improve coming off three straight races where she was close up from the start in races where the closers held the edge.

THIRD RACE

Gulfstream shipper V. I. P. WHO seems to catch a soft field for his local debut; he comes off a decent try for the place in his first start on the main track and he’ll be tough to beat if he can run back to that figure here, though he may need pace help and this is a race lacking obvious pacesetters. BEACH BANDIT may be close-up from the start, as his only two dirt tries to date were sprints; forward trip would give him an edge on the ralliers if the pace is mild, as expected NEFARIOUS FELLA is dangerous on the drop, as he’s never raced this cheaply; he’ll be looking to come from off the pace but he has enough early zip to stay close enough from the start.

FOURTH RACE

ATLANTIC PRINCESS was claimed out of her latest, a sharp score against maiden claimers in a race that came up quick, and though she was off the board in her first and only start on the turf to date she was left with a lot to do after racing well off a mild pace; expecting a good effort here in her first start for the meet’s top connections. PRINCESS NINA and BEAUTY GENIUS ran 2nd and 1st, respectively, when they met back on December 5th, and while the latter beat the former PRINCESS NINA was at a tactical disadvantage, as BEAUTY GENIUS was able to shake loose and control the tempo; it looks like this rematch will feature a different type of race flow, which could well help PRINCESS NINA turn the tables. BEAUTY GENIUS was off the board in her first start against winners but that was against males, and she didn’t run badly at all; gets Lasix for the first time today.

FIFTH RACE

FUN PADDY was run down in the lane after making a mid-race move to gain command but that was a nice effort, and she earned a Beyer which gives her an edge on these; looms tough in this spot if she can make a better-timed run. LEDECKY didn’t miss by much in her last try on the main track, albeit in a sprint and against a step lesser, and though she had the race flow in her favor there she figures to get ample pace to set her up for a late run here as well; dangerous in the lane with a clean trip. BIG BASE tried better off the claim but was outrun; obviously a threat back in with claimers, as she was a good 2nd at this level two back.

SIXTH RACE

PATSY’S BIG GIRL showed determination in the lane in that promising turf debut, closing well to finish third behind only the two speeds in the

race, who controlled the race from the start; given a contested pace up front she’s going to be very tough to hold off late if she’s able to run to that first try on the grass. LOWER FOR LONGER is clearly a threat at this reduced level, and for trainer Chad Brown; those two factors also mean a relatively light price however, despite the wide post and the fact that there’s speed to her inside.

ESTILO DE MUJER weakened late when stretched out and switched to grass last time but that was no easy trip, as she was engaged in a race-long duel; will be a factor from the start once again and if she can shake loose this time she has license to go much further.

SEVENTH RACE

STAR JUANCHO was caught much further off the pace than usual in the opening stages of his latest, thanks to the wide post and the presence of several speedy sprinters in the field, and while he was aided by the race flow he did close with interest; he was against the flow in his prior try but he has posted steady Beyers since the start of the meet. RAOFTHESUN comes off turf sprints against much better, and he’s at least as good on the dirt; he draws wide but he has tactical speed and is perhaps the one to beat in his first start on the Tampa dirt. MINES MADE UP lost his best chance at he start last time; has upside given the excuses he had for his two starts off the layoff, as a race-long duel cost him two back.

EIGHTH RACE

One more shot for SWIFT KID, who may have finally found the right spot. He was off the board as the favorite last time but that was hardly his fault, as a slow start and a controlled pace left him with too much to do, and he ran a strong race for the place two back; needs pace but should get it here. DISCO’S BRIDGE is one of the expected pacesetters; he missed by less than a length last time when able to shake loose early on and he’ll be tough to reel in if he’s unpressured in the opening stages once again. IT’S ME AGAIN is a potential longshot play for the exotics, as he faced much better and raced wide on the turn following a bumping incident at the start in his turf debut, and that was a race where the two speeds completed the exacta.

NINTH RACE

ROBIN TEAM SHOW was moving well late through the lane in his most recent try, and while he was no threat to the top pair, who were close-up from the start, he was flattered when fellow closer Millburn, who was third, came back to score in his next start; figures to get a much improved race flow in this finale, which seems to feature a fair amount of speed. GENERAL closed well himself in his first start since March, and he galloped out nicely past the wire; certainly a threat to make the last run if he doesn’t regress in his second start back. UGLY DUCKLING fits well with these based on the two Beyers he posted in his first two starts going long on the grass, and he’s another who stands to benefit from the expected pace scenario.