ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, IMPAZIBLE DONNA

FIRST RACE

ROSIES SURPRISE has been competitive in both prior start vs. maiden claiming competition and may rate one more chance dropping back down for this after getting outrun by better last time; had a chance to get over to the strong rail in that last one after breaking alertly, but didn’t take the opportunity (can’t blame the rider since it was the first race of the day) and was on the outside all the way to no avail. EMMA AND I has concentrated on turf so far, with the lone main track attempt coming in a race that was rained off; didn’t run poorly over that sloppy track two back in a race that was dominated by the 1-2 finishers and will appreciate getting this class relief. ROSEY’S PEACH and MARIA’S GIFT finished in a photo for second behind a clear-cut winner last time over a wet track; no excuses for them in that spot but the winner of that race is likely better than anything they face here.

SECOND RACE

MIND OF GOLD has improved from race to race so far and backed up a strong try at Monmouth after chasing all the way two back with a clear-cut win in her NY debut when last seen; has been laid up since the claim and now returns for a reduced tag but she is supposed to be tough in here with anything close to her good race. TUFF BIRD was running races at Churchill that would make her very tough in here, but she has not reproduced that form since arriving in NY for her last two races; got wired over a wet track last time and di have to alter course in the stretch to get clear. CHARLOTTE WEBLEY chased off the strong rail when facing tougher two back and she may rate the benefit of the doubt for that last one considering her only other race over a wet, sealed racetrack; effort three back was solid and would give her a real chance in here.

THIRD RACE

PERCEIVED has had trouble staying on the racetrack but he has run well in all three dirt starts to date and will now put races together for the first time while looking for three in a row; far from a standout in here but he does have more room to improve than most. DOUBLY BLESSED started out on turf with middling success; finally moved over to the main track last time and looked good winning that race easily in the mud with a new top Beyer; contender right back but is facing tougher this time. GRIT AND GLORY’s lone win since arriving in NY came going longer at Saratoga, and he got a great ride to win that race; has been close a couple of times since then, including that last one when battling out the pace and falling to a closer late.

FOURTH RACE

Both wins for STUNNING MUNNINGS so far have come in races where he got in as an MTO in races rained off the grass, but he appeared to take a step forward off the Kantarmaci claim last time when pulling away in the slop over a distance that he had struggled with previously; Kantatmaci, second after claimed by, winner last: 7 for his last 26, 27%, $3.47 ROI, 5 for 16 with dirt sprinters in that sample (31%, $2.84 ROI). CITY TEMPER caught a wet track for the third straight time on dirt most recently and showed speed before tiring in the stretch off the layoff; 2 for 2 vs. claimers in her career and dropping back down for this. HALAMA faced better in her NY debut last time and could do nothing with a good trip after getting over to the strong rail early on; drops right away and is going to be tough if able to repeat that winning effort at Churchill two back.

FIFTH RACE

BELLA PRINCIPESSA a bit of a guess debuting here from the rail. Constitution (10% with first time starters) filly is out of a dam who won three times sprinting on dirt in her career, and this is the female family of top NY-bred sprinter/miler (and Grade 2 winner) Pat On the Back; Sciacca just 4 for 64 with first time starters in dirt sprints over the past five years, but those wins came at odds of 7:1, 13:1, 15:1, and 40:1, three of them over this track. MY ALLURING LADY debuted at Saratoga ver the summer and tired after taking a run to

challenge the eventual winner on the lead; $300k yearling went back to the drawing board after that and starts back in an easier spot. BLAME IT ON

MARY just missed in the Lady Finger with a 68 Beyer early on, which prompted her connections to take another stakes shot in the Breeders’ Futurity against colts in her next start; chased away from the strong rail last time and was no match for a good winner after taking a brief lead coming to the stretch.

SIXTH RACE

IMPAZIBLE DONNA ran well in each of her first two well-spaced starts at Saraotga, then worked hard to earn that maiden win in October after battling the pace all the way; good try last time while only second-best to an odds-on winner, earning a new top figure in the process. ELOQUENT SPEAKER was game to break her maiden off the layoff last June and there are excuses to be made for each of her starts since, with the nine furlongs being the obvious one as a follow-up to that first victory; laid down a strong pace before tiring late before the layoff in August, and she could not clear to the strong rail despite showing speed last time, and she tired from her early efforts in the stretch. WAILIN JOSIE up against it at this level vs. horses like the top two, but she ran well last time while trying a long, wide run form last and then just missing second at the end.

SEVENTH RACE

Considering her pedigree, it’s probably not a great sign that FUNNY BONES FLAG debuted on the turf - where she actually ran pretty well - nor that she was dropped in for a tag when returned from the layoff on dirt for her second start; still, she ran fine for second last time while chasing a horse that really improved on the surface switch. GHOSTGHOSTGHOST finished behind the top one last time but may rate the benefit of the don’t for that effort after falling behind early while appearing to stride a bit greenly, and then racing wide on the turn; showed more speed in her prior dirt starts. UNDETECTABLE gave way behind the top two on New Year’s Day but she was making her debut in that spot over a tough distance, and she wound up getting involved with the eventual winner on the lead.

EIGHTH RACE

WONDERWALL was dropped in class last month after failing in her first three starts and she responded to bury maiden claimers in a much improve performance; was claimed out of that race by a dangerous trainer and paid immediate dividends while crushing allowance rivals around two turns with a big Beyer improvement; interesting shipping in to shoot for a bigger prize. COFFEE BAR a NY-bred who appeared to be prepping when rallying to just miss 2nd in that sprint first time out; was expected to improve with the added distance last time and did just that, slipping through on the inside to take over and then drawing clear with a good finish; threat right back for top connections. DIAMOND ORE improved when stretched out for the first time at Woodbine two back, then went to Tampa to break her maiden in her dirt debut; half to Arrogate was on the outside all the way en route to that victory last time, and she was without lasix that day while the top two were adding it for the first time in their recent wins.

NINTH RACE

WHICHWAYTOMALIBU finished a game third off the layoff early on over this track then came back two starts later to be second behind the talented Jerry the Nipper; hasn’t come back to form since returning last summer but two of those races came on turf and slop, and the other two were vs. MSW rivals; one more chance. RETICENT debuted at Parx and looked like he might have needed that race behind a repeat winner; couldn’t get involved over this distance last time but that was a much tougher field for the level. Z’FINALE was no factor behind a couple of these last time, but that race was over a wet track and it was a decided step back from his previous start; perhaps he can rebound back over fast dirt.