ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 7, MADAME BARBARIAN

FIRST RACE

QUINNIE returns to the course on which she scored all three turf wins, also returning from a two-month respite with a history of firing fresh. She ran well last out in her first start off the claim by Vladimir Cerin, missing by a neck at this $25k claiming level. She has tactical speed, she can finish, and merits horse-to-beat status. Veteran 8yo SUGARY showed signs of life last out, runnerup in a low claiming race on dirt that was flattered when the winner jumped multiple levels and won again. The last two times SUGARY was ridden by Kent Desormeaux, she ended up in the winner’s circle. SEASIDE DANCER parlayed an easy lead into a front-running upset last out, while finishing in front of the top choice. Though unlikely for the same soft trip, she does have the win habit (6-for24) and has run well from a pressing position. NOBLE CONTESSA is a candidate to the pace, or at least pressure SEASIDE DANCER.

SECOND RACE

Veteran gelding TWO THIRTY FIVE drops to $32k claiming for his first start in more than two months. He runs well with time between starts; his runner-up finish two back for a $40k claim tag at Keeneland would be fast enough for this cast. He was listed as a vet scratch from a starter allowance Jan. 8. ONCE ON WHISKEY, G3 winner in summer 2018, returns from a layoff of nearly two years while making his first start since being gelded and first time entered for a tag. Whatever he is capable of doing these days, he is likely to do first start back. SYNTHESIS is speed, facing a softer pace scenario than last time when he and front-runner Zestful hooked up and set it up for a closer. SYNTHESIS might be loose on the lead in this small field. Come and catch him.

THIRD RACE

Slight drop from maiden special-weight to maiden-50, and return to two turns, makes AVISSE the one to beat. Her runner-up finish two back in a MSW route, and her third last out in a MSW turf sprint, are the fastest by any in this field. Low odds likely. BASIL FLAVOR got into trouble early last time, and did not make a run in a tougher spot than this. Wheeled back in two weeks and dropping in class, the two-start filly should look better against this easier bunch. FLAG SALUTE is speed. She led to deep stretch last time in a Cal-bred MSW turf route; parallel class move to open maiden-50 and the one to catch under seven-pound apprentice rider Jessica Pyfer.

FOURTH RACE

MARIAH GIRL moves up a notch to N3L claiming after a decisive N2L claiming win. She was Group 2-placed early in her career in Argentina, and has returned to form in the low claiming ranks in the U.S. This mile race includes distance-challenged sprinters who may or may not stay the trip. Expect ‘GIRL can reel in the speed. However, SAVING SOPHIE merits a look on the stretch-out, first off the claim. Her two-turn ability is uncertain, she might be best as a closing sprinter. However, she is in peak form now and this field is not particularly deep. MISS KITNESS is the speed of the speed, stretching out for the first time with theft on her agenda.

FIFTH RACE

WICKS AND CHAPPIES is faster than his rivals in this six-runner maiden-20 sprint. The speed figures he earned in all three dirt sprints are higher than any figure earned by his rivals. It’s a simplistic argument in favor of the chalk, but speed figures always are important in low-level maiden claiming races. MY GIRL PEARL drops to the bottom level for the first time. She improved both recent starts, but those were turf. Her ability on the main track is unproven. One certainty is that this is the easiest field she has faced. NAANSENSE backed up in at even-money in a two-turn race. This sprint is a better distance for her. IT’S A RIDDLE is a 13-start maiden with nine in-the-money finishes. Someday, maybe.

SIXTH RACE

STRIKE ME DOWN shortens from route to sprint, and returns to familiar footing (turf) after a decent runner-up finish first start in California and first on dirt. ‘DOWN was a respectable turf-synthetic specialist back East and in Canada, but typically lost his punch late in races longer than this six

furlong stakes race. He might have limitations regarding distance, therefore this six-furlong trip should be just right. The pace will be quick enough to run at, his figures compare favorably to the typical figs of his rivals. In a wide-open turf sprint, STRIKE ME DOWN gets the call second start for trainer Phil D’Amato. REAL NEWS is in from the Midwest, where he was claimed last out by Peter Miller, who has had much success with similar claims (Hembree, C Z Rocket, Shashashakemeup). REAL NEWS ran against the top turf sprinters in Kentucky last year, and ran okay while in slightly over his head. He fits perfect in this non-graded race. Not sure if wheeling back in 18 days and shipping from Louisiana is a recipe for success, but off his best recent races he figures as a contender. MR VARGAS is pure speed. From the rail post he will bust to the lead and take them as far as he can. Respect his gas, the challenge is running two alike. He earned a 103 Beyer last out on dirt, and also has run a triple-digit fig on turf. STRONGCONSTITUTION always seemed like he might prefer one turn, though he did win a minor route stake three back.

SEVENTH RACE

Veteran MADAME BARBARIAN enters this $12.5k claiming sprint as simply the “best horse” in the field. A 12-time winner, with 34 in-the-money finishes from 75 career starts, her most recent sprint at Santa Anita was a runner-up-by-a-neck finish for $16k that would crush. She can be excused for her last-out sixth, since it was a route. She is best as a closing sprinter. Down a notch in class, back to one turn, off the pace and into the winner’s circle. The only knock is she could be heavily favored. TIZ TOFFEE is fast enough for this level, but she has not started in more than four months and might prefer shorter than seven furlongs. But she has the winning habit, four of her last six, and her stable consistently delivers. From 2014 forward, Rosemary Trela has won 32 races from 122 starters, a 26-percent win rate. TIZ TOFFEE is speed. FLYING BUSINESS, whose recent starts have been in age-restricted races, has posted decent figures and should be forwardly placed while taking advantage of the seven-pound apprentice allowance.

EIGHTH RACE

The conspicuous pattern of improvement by CAERULEAN since switching to turf gives him a slight edge in this starter allowance, non-winners of three. Although his figures are lower than habitual bridesmaid/potential favorite QUICK FINISH, at least CAERULEAN knows how to win. He followed his maiden score three back with a starter allowance win two back, followed by a third last out in a Cal-bred allowance. His pressing style could lead to a good trip with three front-runners drawn to his inside. He can sit just off the pace, get first run, and win outright if he holds off the rally of the aforementioned QUICK FINISH. The latter enters off a pair of high-figure runner-up finishes vs. open N1X allowance foes. The rivals he faced recently were better than the statebred rivals CAERULEAN faced. The difference is QUICK FINISH lacks the knockout punch. Since his most recent win in autumn 2018, he has nd zero wins and seven in-themoney finishes. TENURE arrives from New York, first start off the claim by Robert Falcone. He lost his chance at the break last out, but his previous starts put him in the hunt. Adding blinkers and an apprentice rider, expect him to show speed from the rail. But he will be hounded by BAD BEAT and LETS REJOYCE. CITY RAGE and COAST OF ROAN will rally late, their best races have been two turns.