ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 9, GRAZEN VALOR

FIRST RACE

PRINCESS OF CAIRO tried much tougher in her return try versus Del Mar grass foes but still got a solid 75 Beyer speed figure. It was her first turf try on top of that. This filly tries easier today and gets good race flow all with veteran pilot Scott Stevens at the helm. She won’t pay much but it beats the alternative. BEACH GETAWAY tried a tough seven panels at CD two back and then simply didn’t like the synth surface at Turfway in her most recent. Or she is simply off form. Of course, if she was off form then why do connections find an easier spot where this mare can’t be claimed? Her last race came back key when 2 of 6 returned to win with figs of 75 and 76. She is proven on the dirt going two turns and now goes third off the layoff. Works for us. SMART SET has speed and could find the front end for new barn. Work tab shows bullets and this filly has a nice 395 distance Tomlinson.

SECOND RACE

SQUARED STRAIGHT has some speed and today’s pace is average at best so advantage this guy. Turf breeding is actually solid and this gelding finds his easiest spot to date with the move here. Added distance helps front end try if that is what connections want. This is the first grass race in a while and it should play fair. MACEDONIAN RULER just missed in his most recent and now goes second time this sod. But so do a few others in here. We like that this guy has worked at least twice since his most recent. A Hall of Fame barn calls the shots in Drysdale. JUROR is one of four that come out of the common race. He got good play in said race when sent off at 3-1. If the 1 and 4 gun then race flow is fine but that is a big IF. An even run to hit the board is what we are thinking.

THIRD RACE

NORWEGIAN gets good race flow. One of three to come out of the common race but this gal might be the best price. The rail draw in most recent wasn’t a problem so double that for today. Second time this dirt can only help and this jockey is riding well (Vigil). OLD TOY is an Old Pro. This mare loves a shortened sprint at 9-3-3-1. We were shocked that she was sent off at 6-1 last out. Don’t sleep on those minor track tries and she was facing the boys. More speed this time around if looking for a knock plus her price plummets today. SASHAYING SIS just won nicely and that race came back key when 2 of 2 returned to win with figs of 55 and 63. This mare draws inside main pace foes but at this distance that is fine. This barn shows a flat bet profit with horses that won their last race.

FOURTH RACE

STEVE’S BABE DOLL might find the front end and if so an early breather awaits. At this level, simply finding the best speed horse is often enough. Will this mare like this dirt and can she put good races together are the X factors. THECHAMPISFLORING drops in class and gets a new pilot. Expect this filly to stalk the speed something she couldn’t do last out when stuck on the rail. CURRENTLYMYPROBLEM did run better last out and now goes third off the layoff. With a little luck, this mare might get some pace to chase and at a better price than some of these.

FIFTH RACE

DUDLEY STUDLEY was facing open foes at Emerald before the break and those are simply tougher than these restricted foes. Plus, she is a hard trier that has hit the exacta in 24 of 67 starts. Also, she is a four time winner on this dirt. She might not find the front end but she won’t be that far off whomever does. Works are well spaced. C C N’ WATER is the outside speed. Yet to win on this dirt hurts a tad. DRINK TIL YOU DROP exits a key race where all 8 runners returned to finish at least third. Two won with Beyers of 82 and 58. Two more placed with figs of 72 and 64. That leaves four show runners with figs of 79, 73, 64 and 66. This gelding drops the most. Lack of speed and drawing outside mean a fast pace is needed.

SIXTH RACE

ISLE BE GABBY has the best upside in here. She broke her maiden going two turns three back. She got the show dough in her most recent and now goes second time this dirt which can only help. Time for the Summers barn to heat up. CEEYA LATER just ran better and it was her first start on a real dirt surface. Second time here helps doubly so then. Race flow and level are fine. CEDE’S DREAM has a nice even running style when sprinting so maybe she will like two turns. This barn is 23% sprint to route. Outside post hurts a little going a flat mile.

SEVENTH RACE

TIZ BRILLIANT ran better when switched to a flat mile at Emerald starting four back. New barn and dirt for his most recent so cut him some slack. He draws better and drops in class. GO NOW GO is feeling good. He has some speed and just missed on this dirt in his most recent. Outside runner makes for a good target as he is quicker. A better price today? If all stay in then we would think so. BRICKBAT is stuck way outside but maybe that is a good thing if it forces a front end try. We think this guy is quickest. Can new barn keep this guy at the top of his form cycle like Evans did?

EIGHTH RACE

ROCKY BOY INDIAN drops a notch and goes for Diodoro. That’s enough, right? Well, he draws nicely and has won three times on this dirt. Before his return try, he was facing better here. Martinez is 33% when riding for this barn. CREATIVE ART is a grizzled vet that keeps cashing checks. Where would the racing industry be without horses like this guy? The half furlong cut back should help and this guy does have some tactical speed. Stevens often gets the most out of this gelding. ROMAN RUSH just ran better and has every right to improve second time this dirt. New barn is 25% off the claim. This gelding has some tactical speed but will have to break in a new jock today.

NINTH RACE

GRAZEN VALOR actually ran well in lone turf start as she was only 1 1/2 lengths back at the 1/8th pole before tiring late. She is bred to love the green with her 351 turf Tomlinson. We like that she puts two races together and goes for a barn that shows a flat bet profit on the grass. ZEN YETI is by a 3 for 6 debut turf sire (5 for 36 with all turf starters). Her dam was un-raced. Both sibs beat winners but neither tried the grass. Here is another that puts races together without a layoff. BLUE LIZZY has run OK on the grass three times even if all were going short. Recent maiden breaker came versus easier but a confidence boost nonetheless. AMBERS STORM is by a 2 for 6 debut turf sire. Her dam never tried the grass nor did lone sib to this mare.