ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, FLYING TO THE LINE

FIRST RACE

GIVE EM HECK BECK goes for the leading barn and leading rider but that isn’t what we like best. The drop in class? Rider switch? No and No. This gelding gets an extra half furlong to work with and that is especially good for this barn. But more than anything there is a lot of speed in this race and this guy figures to sit off all of it. Let’s move on then. BECKHAM JAMES is feeling good. He tried first time winners and first time turf in his most recent and ran fine. Now he cuts back to an elongated sprint where he figures to come from off the pace. TONY’S TAPIT has won half of his eight starts so there is that. He can stalk if needed but likes to be forwardly placed and that could be a problem in here. His only loss in his last five starts came on a muddy track at Mountaineer where he still finished 2nd. Is four races in seven weeks a bit much? We shall soon find out.

SECOND RACE

OLYMPIC EXPRESS faced a salty group last out and even got good play at 5/2 but alas those foes were a bridge too far. Class drop looks scary but this gelding hasn’t won since March of 2020 and is a...gelding. Negron gets a leg up and that tells us this horse just needs a confidence boost. A nice stalking trip behind the speeds is almost unfair not to mention that a route of ground might be a better fit. BE GONE DADDY gets to save all the early ground while getting good race flow. Here is another that drops in class. This field actually came up tough for the level and might be worth remembering. FIVE STAR KIP ran well when routing 1 and 3 back. Second time this dirt can only help and you get the leading barn in your corner.

THIRD RACE

BELLA FIGURA didn’t fire last out but that was on the dirt and she did show some speed before spitting the bit. Layoff lines are scary as is class drop but local works are well spaced and this mare gets back to the turf where she is obviously much better. Curious as to price though. Too high and we would take caution. TIPARILLO is speed. The rail runner has zip also. Lone turf try which came two back was quite good. This filly is bred to love the green with her 336 grass Tomlinson. Her upside is best and we like how connections find a logical spot to face first time winners. SUNRISER can pass runners and gets a good pace to chase. Will she need a race before she settles in to her new barn? The Davis barn is 0 for 15 with new runners. POLAR ROUTE is by a 0 for 16 debut turf sire. Her dam want 4-1-0-1 and earned 28K on the green. Two sibs failed to hit the board on the sod.

FOURTH RACE

SACAGEWEA has never seen claimers and we like that. Beaten favorite angle applies today and we like that regular rider tags along. We love her recent works. Here comes a better effort second time this dirt. PIRATES CROSS has never run poorly. Here is another that has worked between starts. Second time with Stevens up can’t hurt and this filly figures another stalking trip. QUATRO is the inside speed. Her most recent was a Beyer top and it came first on this dirt. Was it too good hence a bounce today? Maybe early tote action lends a clue.

FIFTH RACE

FLAME AND CITRON only beat five home to break his maiden but that race has come back key when 2 of 5 returned to win with figs of 56 and 47. The Rollins barn could have opted for $3,500 foes but instead choose today’s $8,500 and we like the confidence shown. What we like more is not one but two recent works. ARUGULA is a hard trying sort that goes second time this dirt. Added distance might sharpen front speed. Speed to the inside and out hurts but this gelding does have

some upside with this being only her 6th start.

WILL YA WIN SUM seems to try hard when Shannon Uske gets a leg up. Race flow is average so that neither helps nor hurts. Maybe this gelding takes a step forward second off the layoff and second time this dirt.

SIXTH RACE

FLYING TO THE LINE was facing better on the grass in SoCal before the break. A dirt sprint two back was a simple prep for going longer which is what she did in her most recent and it was a better effort. Now she goes third off the layoff which tells us that she is feeling good and also a great time to return to the green. The blinkers go ON and that is normal for when this mare is running on the weeds. TEQUILA MARY is just better on the grass. This mare gets good race flow and goes third off the layoff. This mare just likes to win as she has visited the winners circle eleven times. DIANKA has hit the exacta on this sod in 7 of 11 starts. Her tactical speed helps the trp. Form cycle hints at better and Stevens knows this mare well. LOOKOUT TAYLOR is by a 0 for 6 debut turf sire. Her dam went 4-0-0-0 on the green. Lone grass sib is 9-1-1-1 and earned 11K.

SEVENTH RACE

REFORMER is by a 15% debut sire. His dam went 12-3-3-0 and earned 43K. Both sibs beat winners (139K, 170K). Homebred has a solid work tab and is bred to win early. LOOKN BIG is by a 17% debut sire. His dam went 12-4-2-2 and earned 193K. All 7 sibs won with 5 having beat winners. We spy two sibs that won their 2YO debuts. Work tab is fine and this barn is 1 for 1 with debut types. LIMITED OFFER is often right there and knows this dirt well. Recent work was a bullet best of 43. Maybe she is just better as a 4YO. SECRET’S DOUBLE is by a 3% debut sire. His dam went 23-5-5-2 and earned 56K. Two of three sibs won. DREADNAUGHT exits a key race where 4 of 11 returned to win with figs of 60, 56, 61, and 61.

EIGHTH RACE

TENGA’S GOLD goes third off the layoff and adds a half furlong. Combine that with this outside post and you should get a better trip. Those Los Al races going 870 yards are better than you think. It is always nice to see a recent work but in this case more so. ETERNAL KINGDOM exits a key race where 2 of 6 returned to win with figs of 70 and 56. Second time this dirt can only help. Race flow is average so no help or hindrance there. DOMINANT FORCE went favored 2 and 3 back before going off at 8/5 in his most recent so someone likes him. This gelding showed good speed last out but we expect a more patient approach today with the jock switch to Ms. Uske.

NINTH RACE

DYNA CAT has some speed and adds a full furlong today. Not sure if he is quickest but he will be forwardly placed with a veteran jock at the helm. Better tries 2 and 4 back bode well for today. CASABLANCA HOT has hit the board going this distance in 6 of 8 starts. Second time this dirt can’t hurt. Class drop is the main selling point. JEN LORS LEGACY comes in fresh and maybe that sharpens his tactical speed. He draws best going this tricky distance. Distance tab is fine at 4-1-1-0. Those longer works will help with the long layoff.

TENTH RACE

CROW MOON showed his usual zip last out but still spit the bit in an off the turf affair. New barn is 2 for 2 on the green and 3 for 6 with their claimers. This gelding draws best and should have more than a legit shot to find the front end where an early breather awaits. THORN HILL CAT got Beyers of 75, 74, and 80 the last three times that he tried the green. This gelding goes second time with new barn and should improve with the move to the weeds. TEDDY TIME made a nice middle move two back that didn’t show up on the charts. Then he ran second, on the dirt, at 24-1. Now he goes third off the layoff and gets back to the green. Race flow is only OK though. SUNSCREEN is by a 0 for 1 debut turf sire. His dam never tried the green and this is her first grass foal.