ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 9, SETHAMEE STREET

FIRST RACE

ALEXBABE was a beaten favorite when last seen but she ran a strong race in defeat, closing nicely for the place despite racing behind slow early fractions; should get a much better race flow today. BAHAMA KITTEN made the lead in mid-stretch but failed to last in her second start off the layoff, a good effort, and one which makes her a threat in this opener; another who should benefit from a lively pace up front in this one. PAYNTER FEST is one of the likely speeds, and she has the benefit of the rail; down a notch in class after facing nonwinners of two in six months in her latest.

SECOND RACE

FOREMAN was game in defeat in the Pasco Stakes last time out, as he was caught up in a race-long duel and only weakened late; distance a question but if he can shake loose this time around he could prove tough to reel in. SOUP AND SANDWICH is clearly the one to beat off that debut effort and figure; could be overbet some after posting that 89 Beyer but he’d clearly be no surprise despite stretching out to a route for the first time. TOP GUN TOMMY certainly moved forward with the addition of Lasix and he’s a threat here on the strength of that figure; proven ability to rate a big plus.

THIRD RACE

CLADDAGH’S RUN looked beaten at the 1/16th pole in that last run but she had another gear and pulled away from her rival, who seemed to have all the momentum; this mare was flattered when that runner returned to run another solid 2nd in her next start and she seems to fit with this field in her first start vs. winners. LEXOPHILIA was overmatched against allowance runners in her first start off the claim but her prior try, at this same level, gives her strong credibility today; has the speed to stay close from the start. BOASTFUL CONTESSA didn’t run badly at all off the long layoff; if she can avoid a regression in her second start following the break she’s a threat, especially if she gets fast fractions once again.

FOURTH RACE

PURPLE PEOPLEEATER should appreciate this cutback in distance after she weakened in the late stages going a little longer in her most recent; meets a seemingly average field for the class level and she’s a prime threat to steal this under jockey Antonio Gallardo. DONTLOSETHATNUMBER has some speed of her own and should be prominent from the start on the move back the main track; first start for a tag on the dirt. TETON THAI is also quick, but she can also rate and make one run; that versatility could mean she’s well spotted off the leaders.

FIFTH RACE

A K’S SONG didn’t have the cleanest of trips when last seen and now adds blinkers for her third start off the long break for trainer Graham Motion; will need to work out a clean trip from the hedge but perhaps the equipment change will help her stay closer to the pace today. CURLY RUTH was behind the top pick two back but she did have some traffic trouble there, and she returned to win impressively in her next try; note trainer Arnaud Delacour’s stats with horses coming back off a win in their last starts. DON’T BLAME JUDY makes her local debut and could be the one to beat based on her best back figures; this is only her 2nd start since October, however, and she does have to deal with a wide post, which makes taking a relatively short price a little dicey.

SIXTH RACE

ROGUE RAGE made a nice run to contend for the lead on the turn and battled all the way to the wire with the winner in a promising dirt route debut in his latest, posting a Beyer that stands out with these; prior form was muddied a bit due to unfavorable race flows. STRUM AND PLUCK was a beaten favorite two back, his last try on the dirt, but the pace scenario was squarely against him there, providing a legit excuse; main threat to the top pick, though it’s worth noting that he hasn’t

run all that well in his other route tries, albeit on turf. NELSON LEGEND adds blinkers and stretches out, which makes him a pace candidate for trainer Hernan Parra; tough post in that first start off the layoff, making that a better effort than the running line might indicate.

SEVENTH RACE

FOX ROX stayed in the race last time even when it was rained off the turf, and though he didn’t run badly he did confirm that he’s a professional turf sprinter at this stage of his career; he should get a rapid pace to chase in his 101st lifetime start and he may be good enough to pull off the upset with the right set up and a clean trip. IMPRIMIS is obviously the main danger, coming off a big effort at Gulfstream Park in her most recent and a clear excuse for the off-the-board finish in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint prior to that; by all means the most likely winner but the price will be light. TURNED ASIDE has speed but can also rate, and that versatility has been a big reason for his success; away since November but sporting some swift breezes for this seasonal debut.

EIGHTH RACE

OX TROT drew off nicely for the win at this same level in his latest, and when runner-up Tony Small returned to win this weekend this gelding’s stock rose; in line for a repeat score given another stalking trip from his outside post. WAR GIANT rises in class and price off a perfect-trip score in his latest, which makes him a candidate for a regression, but he could fall into another ideal set up today, as his tactical speed always makes him a threat. PAPAJUDGY makes his first start off the claim and could be the controlling speed under jockey Jose Ferrer; rises in class after beating non-winners of three but perhaps good enough to last for a share if able to back down the fractions sufficiently enough.

NINTH RACE

SETHAMEE STREET has won two straight and she’s looked good doing it, powering home each time and winning going away; gets tested for class here but if she gets pace to run at she’s going to be tough to stave off late, as she’s undefeated in turf sprints, aside from when she lost her rider at the start three back. PAYNTDEMBLUESAWAY has won six straight, and seven of her last eight, using her speed to her best advantage; trainer Jane Cibelli excels with turf sprinters and this mare nd has to be considered a threat, especially if she sits a perfect trip off the speeds. ODE TO JOY lost all chance due to traffic trouble in her latest but with a clean trip she can be expected to be a presence late; draws wide in this Lightning City but she has the tactical speed to get position in the opening stages.