ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, SHIKAKA

FIRST RACE

A 10-race Thursday card likely to be run under dry conditions (at least that’s what the weather folks were promising early this week) will start at 1:10p ET sharp and the first of 5 scheduled grass races matching 7 3yo fillies dashing a quick fiveeighths. Nodding to the last-out maiden-breaker, VERY SAVVY, even though she admittedly didn’t beat much in that off-turf heat earlier this month; Saffie stepping in with a few live ones today, as usual. NEVER MY LOVE thrashed slow main-track maidens up at Tampa late last month for Cibelli in what amounts to a confidence-builder; filly who’s never tried the turf comes well drawn for a trainer who tends to do her best work with grass sprinters. HEART OF GOD and ROMANTICAL NOTE are pick-em-up-late possibilities.

SECOND RACE

A so-so third at 8-5 for a slightly lower tag than this, GAGA OH LA LA comes well-drawn in the open-air outside box when taking the requisite raise into this $25k mdn.-claiming sprint off the Bob Hess claim; her improving enough to win straight off the claim is a distinct possibility. PIPER finished well clear of the top pick in that key Feb. 3 race and likely comes favored here, for good reason; be no surprise. ECLIPTICALS CAROL showed little when debuting as a 10-1 shot, but worth noting that Irad sees fit to take the call; plenty of blind support for one of three first-Lasix fillies in here (with PLAYERA and first-timer HELLO PRINCESS).

THIRD RACE

Looking for an effective late run here from GREENWOOD DRIVE as she goes turf-to-dirt while turning back from a mile; enough opposing signed on to perhaps lead to an up-front meltdown; up to her to finally kick on after young Liz raced her into shape. LYRICAL comes the apparent one to catch along the fence after surely needing her latest; Arindel homebred been allor-nothing thus far. KIRBY faltered badly in her 1/21 comeback but does have the kind of speed to factor in a long way this time.

FOURTH RACE

Perennially well-backed at the windows, PAPA’S LITTLE GIRL surely will continue that trend when picking up top jock Irad in her first try for new connections; returning to a more suitable mile after just missing for this same bottom-level tag earlier this month will require a savvy ride; right man for that job. LET’S BE HONEST plunges to the very bottom after Team Navarro was unable to get her to muster up much in her first two post-Saffie sprints; outer post should have her sailing away on this stretchout. DONT GET SMART was OK vs. these open types last out after clearing her N3L condition last month.

FIFTH RACE

Unusually deep group of maidens in this Fla-bred category finds a number of 3yos who one day might be able to graduate at this level, although only one will get it done today, barring a rare deadheat; thinking the encouraging 1/28 debut showing from TWICE TOO MANY will be enough to get him home, given how he was pounded down to 11-10 and now has that valuable experience under him; outer box can help Luis trip out well. Right alongside, MAJESTIC STREET merits a very close look after taking some Team Casse regrouping; was regarded highly enough last summer to be tried in open company at the Spa; Irad and the comfy post are plusses. JOSHY JAK carries the look of a deserving favorite in a ‘regular’ state-bred MSW sprint, but again, this came up extra-tough for whatever reason.

SIXTH RACE

With those 2 solid efforts in this same type of N2L-$20k turf sprint under her belt at the cham

pionship meet, SHIKAKA and Zayas should be able to work out the right kind of stalking trip from just behind a few speed types before moving along; call this mare the day’s best for the underrated Nagle barn. GET N TIPSY gets Irad following the 19-month layoff, and that’s just fine, given that Rivelli wins with this (and pretty much any) kind; crafty trainer might well be taking a base on balls with this kind of class drop. K’S RUNNING FREE came smoking home to break her maiden last out besides the poor start; let’s see that again, huh.

SEVENTH RACE

Quite the sizable jump here for both CODRINGTON and UNA LUNA, going from easier ‘beaten’ races into this starter, but it sure seems like the race shape will favor something to come from off it, given how JABUTICABA and Irad figure to face pressure from the get-go from a couple of 5yos to her outside, KATIELEIGH (stretching out from 5-panel dashes) and the NY-bred SHORT POUR, whose natural speed probably will be further enhanced by the 3-month-plus layoff. Nice wakeup from the NY-bred Codrington in that Feb. 3 score, which perhaps gives her the edge over ‘Luna; both should be able to save enough ground to be able to pounce when ready.

EIGHTH RACE

Still basking in that 29-1 upset last weekend by Queen Nekia in the G3 Royal Delta, the Saffie barn can take no prisoners in this state-bred 1x alw. dash with an uncoupled entry, both of whom will take plenty of tote action. LORILOUPIES perhaps the more likely victress of the two, having badly needed that Feb. 4 race in which she was pounded down to odds-on favoritism prior to getting legweary while otherwise performing creditably; if not, then her prodigal stablemate, MIDTOWN ROSE, can save the day; evidently Saffie really wanted her back after losing her for one start; reverting to the Xmas eve effort while picking up Irad doesn’t seem implausible. DAHLONEGA fared okay going turf-to-dirt last out and now makes her KJB debut from a cozy post.

NINTH RACE

First couple of grass attempts by the then-2yo AMALFI PRINCESS suggest she’s capable in this nominal feature after being regrouped by Maker following that closing-day MSW tally to end the Churchill fall meet; nice set of Palm Meadows works and a typical Tyler ride should find her in a good spot once this well-matched bunch of 3yo fillies turns for home. Right alongside, LA LIBERTEE comes a viable threat following that solid return here 1/29; she’ll be looking to turn the tables on another Maker filly, CAN’T BUY LOVE, who edged her for second in the key race.

TENTH RACE

Favored in each of her last two, TIME SENSITIVE stands to make amends when catching what appears to be a fairly soft group for this level; Saez stays put, as well he should, after this filly ran respectably enough in defeat in each of those last two; a little more follow-through would do. MOTHERS DAY JEWEL merits a long look when adding Lasix on this subtle class drop; the Bush barn tends to excel with younger turf types such as her, and the price ought to be right. ITALIAN TWIN gets fitted with her first tag and logically stands to improve over those first two disappointments for The Family Ingordo.