ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 2, HOLY SAINT

FIRST RACE

First post is 12:25 ET. Remember 12% takeout on Pick 5 wagers. GOODLUCKCHUCK has won three of his last four on dirt and looked good stretching out around multiple turns for the first time when wiring them at Charles Town. Forged to the front along the inside, took pressure from 9 to 1 shot Itgot Grandma, put that one away on the third bend, then rebuffed the stretch challenge from odds-on favorite V.I.P. Ticket. Doesn’t need the lead to win and is proven over the course. Note he was listed as a vet scratch here on February 7. EVEN THUNDER also ships in from out of town after scoring around two turns at Penn National. Broke okay, prompted a three-ply pace along the rail, tucked to the pocket, seemed outpaced outside, but re-rallied nicely to prevail. That wasn’t a strong field, however, and he’ll have to pick up his game a bit against these. COLONEL JUAN was stymied by a lack of pace two back when a solid third going a one-turn mile. This is a better distance for him and he should get something to run at here. Faced razor-sharp Iywaan (won last three starts) in most recent outing at Penn National. JAMMINWITHBRANDON saved ground in recent two-turn win at Parx, eased out under urging on the second bend, dropped back inside and surged clear to defeat next-out 82-Beyer performer Sambam (entry-level allowance at Parx).

SECOND RACE

HOLY SAINT exits a super-live race last month. All four of the horses that finished ahead of him in that sprint returned to win (The Walk came back to earn a 77 Beyer when dominating starter-optional claimers by 7 1/4 lengths). By Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Ghostzapper from the family of Pimlico Special winner Devil His Due, he should get the mile and can get close to the pace. SCORESWHENHEWANTS finished with some interest in first start over the circuit when third to odds-on Great Go Go, but that race hasn’t come back very strong just yet. Has back ability and he switches to aggressive rider that might put him on tilt early. Both of his career victories came at a mile. Weighed in at 1,018 lbs. on Feb. 7 (weights should be posted on the simulcast feed during the post parade). BLUE SKY PAINTER (947 lbs. on Feb. 4) steps up sharp after overcoming a glacial pace to beat “two-lifers” in last-to-first fashion. Trainer John Robb went 7 for 14 (50%, $4.96 ROI) between Jan. 30 and Feb. 15. KORCZAK is a big horse (weighed in at 1,111 lbs. two weeks ago) and he couldn’t recover after being placed in very tight along the rail sprinting. He pushed fast paces in his last two and might not have to exert himself as much to control the issue this afternoon.

THIRD RACE

Taking a guess with first-time starter SEBASTIAN, a half-sister to debut winner Millie Child out of a mare that won her initial outing by 13 1/4 lengths on dirt at Colonial in 2009. Trainer Katherine Voss is 3 for 12 (25%, $3.55 ROI) over the past five years with debut runners in maiden claiming races. Jevian Toledo was aboard all three of those winners. CRYING FOR MORE set a fast and contested pace along the inside on New Year’s Eve, moved clear under urging on the turn while trying to bear out and tired in the stretch. Expect Cortez to be aggressive. MR. SHADES OF GRAY ($60,000 yearling), half-brother to Grade 3-winning turf router Ezmosh, came close to the Beyer par in lone start at this level, then acted up behind the starting gate before his tough-trip effort on January 9. Once they sprang the latch, he stumbled badly at the start, rushed up to track the slow pace in a tight spot along the inside and failed to threaten. Both UNCOMMON VALOR ($1,000 weanling RNA; $7,000 yearling; $18,000 juvenile) and RIBBONS AND MEDALS drop out of the special weight ranks for Mike Trombetta. The former was in too tough against 17 1/4-length winner Dee Jay (returned to finish second with a 72 Beyer in a Pennsylvaniabred allowance on turf). Ribbons and Medals is a half-sister to stakes-winning synthetic sprinter Sweet Souper Sweet. BAKENEKO is a half-brother to Grade 3-winning turf router Customer Base (won debut sprinting on synthetic) and stakeswinning dirt sprinter Hyperlink. Red-hot does good work with first-time starters. CHAUFFEUR ($65,000 yearling RNA) is another that would appreciate the drop in class.

FOURTH RACE

FIVE CARD DRAW pushed very hot fractions along the inside and was the only part of the pace still standing at the end of recent 6 1/2-furlong affair (Big Boots and Ticker Tape Parade came from sixth and last, respectively, after the first call). Trainer John Robb is 13 for the last 47 (28%, $2.57 ROI) with older low-level claimers in dirt sprints. Think he can get close to the pace while in the clear. HIGHER PURPOSE might be the one to catch and beat after dueling 9 to 2 shot Zitarrosa (finished ninth of ten) into defeat in return to this class level. Could have an easier time of it up front in this heat. JACK STRAIGHT finished ahead of a couple of these when benefiting from hot splits up front. He was a bit late to change leads that afternoon, but the ten-time winner usually packs a late wallop and the barn is going very well right now. Twelve-time winner SPOKANE EAGLE steps up after beating a weaker group at Charles Town. He has the speed to stay close.

FIFTH RACE

WINGS OF FIRE looked professional in belated career debut at Aqueduct on Dec. 13. She hustled up to track the favored uncontested leader from the outside, advanced under a confident ride late on the turn, seemed in hot water when the chalk briefly spurted away, but wore that one down in the final sixteenth. Willing to forgive her first start against winners as she was bounced around leaving the gate, rushed up

to push the pace from the inside, was shuffled back into the pocket and tired over that wet track. The third-place finisher from that race returned to score by 5 3/4 lengths in a $16,000 “non-winners of two” claimer at Aqueduct with a 67 Beyer. Expect her to get close to the pace. SCAMPER ALONG (968 lbs. on Jan. 30) was under early pressure on the backstretch to keep up, saved ground turning into the stretch and finished evenly behind gate-to-wire winner Keeper in Spite. Steps up slightly off the claim, but both starts over the circuit were solid. ELOQUENT LADY was very competitive at this level two and three back, then ended up in a hot pace duel over the quirky Charles Town surface last month. Good tactical speed should have her in a nice spot behind the speeds. LOOKIN FOR CANDY experimented with “blinkers off - cheek pieces on” three weeks ago and never made an impact after chasing a hot pace up front. Reverts to blinkers and might have an easier time of it on the lead.

SIXTH RACE

Perhaps a drop to the bottom level will make the difference for APRILNESS, who underachieved in her last two starts for $16,000. Set a solid pace over sloppy going two back, came off the rail turning for home and tired late. Although she chased a hot pace last time out, those horses didn’t come back to the field and Aprilness faded badly in the final furlong. It’s disappointing that she hasn’t finished off her races, but might work out a good trip tracking Cookies and Cream while in the clear. Want to use EGG NOG in multiple-race wagers as the filly drops in class after chasing fast fractions in a race that produced Keepyourskateson (next-out 50-Beyer winner at the $25,000 level). Expecting a good trip just off the speeds. COOKIES AND CREAM (947 lbs. on Feb. 6) continues to drop in class and looms the speed nearest the inside. GYPSY’S IMAGE tracked in a pretty tight spot in between rivals before faltering in the lane. Expecting improvement dropping to this level. third-finisher returned to graduate with a 67 Beyer) and can get close to the pace for first start around two turns. Expected to last the distance as a daughter of Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Paynter out of a half-sister to Seminole Native, thrice stakes-placed at nine furlongs. MIT MAZEL shook loose on the lead to defeat $40,000 claimers and has the tactical speed to stay close to the pace. She’s won at a mile in the past. MARVELLA NASTY would benefit if the early pace is fast.

EIGHTH RACE

PLOT THE DOTS had the misfortune of chasing sharp Dixie Drawl in his last three, but gets away from that rival here and think he’ll appreciate cutting back slightly in distance. Tracked the quick pace from a loose pocket last time, couldn’t match the winner’s acceleration on the second turn and held second while no threat to Dixie Drawl. Consistent Beyers, but might need Closer Look and Shotski to tangle up front. Don’t think the margin of victory told the entire story in DUDLEY SQUARE’s local debut as he was hung out four wide every step and still had enough to wear down the pacesetter. Trainer Todd Pletcher is 16 for the last 32 (50%, $2.90 ROI) with older last-out winners returning in optional-claiming dirt routes. Nice combination of tactical speed and upside potential. MCELMORE

AVENUE has won four straight since being switched to dirt. Steadied from in between horses on the turn last time, he made a four to five wide bid in the stretch and gamely got up at a short price. Handles any surface. Grade 2 winner SHOTSKI is game and dangerous, and he should benefit from his recent return from a lengthy 321-day layoff. Expect good speed from the opening bell. The runner-up from the last Aqueduct race returned to finish second with an 88 Beyer.

NINTH RACE

MICE AND MEN makes third start following lengthy layoff with improving Beyer Speed Figures on display. Saved ground in the early portion of most recent start, ended up in behind rivals turning for home, and wove his way through traffic to finish ahead of four of these with a nice gallop-out. He did receive a hot pace to attack in that spot, however, and might need a similar situation this afternoon. A bit concerned that BAPTIZE THE BOY (1,025 lbs. on Jan. 30) is getting a bit sour as he acted up behind the starting stalls before his last two races. Might receive some hidden class relief here as the runner-up from Jan. 30 returned to beat optional claimers with a 90 Beyer while the thirdfinisher came back to down starter foes at Charles Town with an 80. STONE COURAGEOUS a rallying type that took advantage of those quick splits to finish just behind the top pick. Think he has a bit more tactical zip than shown in that race. BAND ON TOUR has speed and drops into the restricted ranks for third start after 205-day layoff. Should be in prime position when they swing for home. FORFIFTYFIVEROCKET was placed in a tough twoturn heat in first start off the Dilodovico claim. Fifth-finisher from that race returned to place third in a $25,000 optional with a 72 Beyer. Seems more comfortable at these shorter distances.

TENTH RACE

Although he finished ahead of four of today’s rivals, perhaps LIFESPAN found 5 1/2 furlongs a bit sharp in second start off the claim. Stalked the pace in between, went after pacesetter Distant Thunder in earnest and finished evenly while trying to get in a bit. It’s disappointing that he hasn’t punched it in lately, but he has several numbers that exceed this Beyer par. Can sit close to expected pacesetter Pardon the Pun. Trainer Ben Feliciano is 7 for the last 20 (35%, $2.75 ROI) with older (4-yearolds and up) dirt sprinters. NEVERFOLD might have moved up on a wet track as he showed improved speed to push Pardon the Pun. He was under a drive on the turn when failing to keep up and drifted out when tiring in the stretch. Think he’ll appreciate turning back in distance and others might do the dirty work for him early this time. DAY OF HONOR might be racing himself into top shape as he makes his third start following a 148-day layoff. Worked out a nice inside-out closers trip in a fast-paced sprint two back. Three weeks ago, he broke slowly, raced outside in midpack and churned on late to finish behind the top pick. TALE OF DIXIE has upside and is another going third off a lengthy layoff in solid form. Ran fine off the break two back when finishing well with a healthy gallop-out. Outsprinted behind a quick pace last time, he was running on again. Don’t discount from off the pace. PARDON THE PUN has blown clear stretch leads at odds of 13 to 10 or less in his last four. He’ll likely make the front and it’s possible this shorter distance will aid his stamina woes. WAR LIGHT takes huge class drop after making debut at a demanding two-turn distance. Ran into a field that included Galilean Moon, a gelding that returned to win for $40,000 with a 67 Beyer. Expect improvement as he plunges to the bottom. Class relief also for UNION CHARM, who finished last in all four starts. In against House Arrest at Monmouth (returned to win two in a row with Beyers of 67 and 75, respectively).