ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 7, HANDR’SDREAM

FIRST RACE

Late-running maiden winner BIG TALKER and two-for-three sprinter HOCKEY DAD are tough to separate in this N1X turf mile for Cal-bred 3-yearolds. The pace scenario favors BIG TALKER, who improved since he was gelded late last year. He followed his runner-up comeback with a solid come-from-behind maiden win; he could get a similar pace scenario. Front-runners in posts 1-4 suggest this turf mile will unfold at a strong clip. HOCKEY DAD is the fastest and most accomplished in the field, already a two-time winner with the top figures. He remains eligible to this turf race because his N1X sprint win last week was dirt. The challenge for ‘DAD is to reproduce his sprint form around two turns while wheeling back in seven days. He is versatile, and could tuck into a cozy trip positioned fourth behind the speed. DISCRETIONARY DAY defeated the top choice last out when able to establish the lead on his own. He faces more pressure here; CROSSWORD and SEATTLE BOLD both have speed.

SECOND RACE

PUBILIUS SYRUS improved since switching to dirt in autumn, though there may be reasons beyond footing for his improvement. Regardless, the “back class” veteran (stakes winner in 2017 and 2018) has won four straight on dirt while gradually climbing the ladder. He gets the call to make it five in a row. He scratched Feb. 5 when he got sick, but recovered quickly and posted two works since. From last to first, again? He will have to catch SYNTHESIS, who finished 11 lengths clear of third (small field) last out and was claimed for $32K by Jeff Mullins. The front-running gelding is likely to make the lead from the inside post, and therefore will have the jump on the top choice. Close call between two in-form veterans. KENZOU’S RHYTHM has not won in two years, but his recent form is solid including a runner-up finish last out vs. easier. He finished one-two in seven of 11 starts at Santa Anita. MONGOLIAN WIND will rally late; SELF TAUGHT has enough speed to keep the pace honest.

THIRD RACE

IRISH AURA could find herself setting a relatively soft pace in this turf sprint for older fillies and mares. Her debut two back was an okay fourth, she ran better second out although her speed figure dropped slightly. She set/pressed the pace, and finished second behind the odds-on winner. This is only the third start for the 5-year-old mare, who gets the call largely due to the absence of other speed. THAT’S AMARE, a Cal-bred facing open, showed promise her only start last summer. She rallied from fifth to second behind a winner that led gate to wire. The winner was stablemate Leggs Galore, who won three subsequent starts including a stakes race. The point is, ‘AMARE got beat by a good rival. First start since August, working well for a hot stable, ‘AMARE figures as a logical contender. KALON finished a promising third in her debut three months ago. Look for her late.

FOURTH RACE

Lots of question marks in this $10k claiming route including top choice FLIP THE COIN JAN, who actually finished well for fourth last out while stretching to two turns at a level higher. The 6-year-old might be coming around, he drops slightly in class and gets a seven-pound weight break under apprentice Alexis Centeno. SIX POINT RACK missed by a nose last out while running better than the figure suggests. He was wide the entire race (so was the winner), and finished a clear-cut second. Good effort by a gelding who has returned to form. IMPRESSION would crush this field if he reproduced his runner-up finish two starts back. Trouble is, he was claimed from that race and did not maintain form for his new outfit. He finished a dull fifth last out with no visible alibi. A standout off his late-2020 form, he is suspect based on his only start in 2021. TERRIBLE TED and STUDLY PERFECT stretch out and help insure an honest pace.