ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 1, STRONG POINT

FIRST RACE

STRONG POINT took some money for her sprint debut and appeared to gain some useful experience there after getting bumped at the start to wind up last, and then coming through on the inside to brush a rival again into the stretch, before finishing evenly in a relatively fast race (78 Beyer for the winner); half-sister to several multiple winners from this dam, including multiple Grade 2 winner Spelling Again, can build on that experience as she stretches out. TEKILA improved second time out following a short layoff to split a pair of nextout winners in her first start with Lasix; can be right there with another step forward and is bred to get the distance. COAL SHAFT went the mile in her dirt debut last time and couldn’t get up over a front-running, longshot winner despite having every chance from the top of the stretch; was tired late in that race after making an early move and just lasted for 2nd over the closing IAINTFRAIDANOGHOST.

SECOND RACE

CADEAU DE PAIX the lone three-time winner in the field and she is probably better than her overall record indicates, as she was unlucky more than once early on while trying to break her maiden; overcame a stumble at the start to win easily two back and she was in way too tough last time vs. better and had the added disadvantage of racing wide on a day when speed and the rail were strong. DIAL ME UP has been in the exacta in three of her four dirt starts to date and looks like the main speed of this race from the rail; couldn’t find the excuse vs. two-life claimers last time while loose on the lead on a strong rail, but the winner of that race is pretty good and was never far away. MIND OF GOLD was an easy winner over NY-bred maiden claimers last September before going to the sidelines, and she returned with an easy win over much weaker last time while improving her figure again; steps up to face better.

THIRD RACE

TENDERFOOT has improved significantly since being claimed by Baker and exits a game run in the

Jazil last time, where he was only second-best to Mr. Buff; like him cutting back for this with tactical speed. CHESTERTOWN might have the advantage over TENDERFOOT going longer but at a one-turn mile he will likely have to improve in that face of that one’s recent form; well-bred colt keeps getting better and won convincingly over this track and trip two back with a solid figure. ZOOMER took advantage of a clear lead on a strong rail to earn a new top figure going longer two back, but he backed that race up pretty well last time over this distance; off the claim for a dangerous trainer while in form.

FOURTH RACE

FRENCH TOAST debuted for a tag despite being a $300k purchase from the family of Union Rags, and did so over a tough one-turn mile, but he ran well in that spot while contesting the pace between horses most of the way and briefly surviving, before ultimately getting tired to finish third in a better field for the level; on the outside for his second looking tough if he can run as well vs. this field. AJHAR has made one prior start vs. maiden claimers and was disqualified from purse money after narrowly prevailing over a wet track at Parx, then just missed to an in-form horse in his next start going longer; clearly the horse to beat as he drops back down but he really isn’t that good. ZUZUDINI raced at this level for the first time off the layoff last month and never got involved behind FRENCH TOAST; closer needs some pace but deserves another chance and can do better in his second start back.

FIFTH RACE

ELEGANT ZIP dropped to pick up a long-overdue win off the layoff but her form was not as bad as it may appear during the losing streak, as she spent a lot of time either facing stakes company (often going longer than she prefers) or on turf; backed that cheaper win up nicely last time to close down a better field and she can pull the right trip here as she looks for three in a row. SIRENIC was only second-best to INVALUABLE in her first start off the claim, then appeared to not care for that wet track all in her 2021 debut; benefitted from an aggressive ride over a speed and rail-favoring track last time, but she looked like a different horse there while dominating that field with top

Beyer in this field. INVALUABLE has been right there in six straight starts while steadily rising in class and her two most recent losses have been narrow ones, first to next-out Grade 3 winner Mrs. Danvers and then to the in-form colt Tenderfoot (see Race 3); tough if continuing to hold form with speed from the outside.

SIXTH RACE

REED KAN returned from the layoff in form last summer to win three of his first four off the bench, and he may not have run as poorly as it seems last time when caught up dueling early with classdropping Happy Farm and paying the price; looks like the clear speed in this spot. SQUARE SHOOTER defeated three of these same rivals off the claim last time to make it three solid efforts in a row; handles either fast or wet dirt and steps up for this after having the claim voided last time. THE SICARII is a little light on figures when compared to the top two but he is versatile in terms of running style and is cutting back for this.

SEVENTH RACE

HONOR UP hasn’t quite been at his best since finishing third in the Grade 1 Carter back in 2019 while enduring more than one layoff; got really good once returning to dirt for Nevin and his most recent start is better than it looks with a bit of trouble in that Commentator; has to be ready off the layoff. WICKED TRICK found himself as a dirt horse back in the summer of 2019, winning six in a row with ascending figures while steadily rising in class; did get to the good rail early in that last one, but he ran through the stretch to get second in a promising return from the layoff. T LOVES A FIGHT lost all chance when blowing the start behind WICKED TRICK last time; consistent NY-bred hasn’t won in a while but he is more than capable if he gets some pace to run at.

EIGHTH RACE

ASK NEAL has faced better in each of his first four starts without factoring and is not one to place a ton of confidence in, but this is clearly the easiest spot he has landed in as he drops again and cuts back to sprint. SINASHACK is also dropping to the lowest level yet out of that $50k maiden claimer going a mile last time; has speed and rates to benefit from the return to a sprint. YEROSILVERBIZ has shown some speed in both starts to date for Atras but he has run two slow races and was no match as the favorite last time; cuts back.