ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 4, SPILL THE TEA

FIRST RACE

Another 5-day week ends with a 12-race Sunday card that starts at 12:10p ET, with dry conditions and low-80s temps expected to prevail once again, which means all six turf races most likely will be ON. Figuring the drop out of one of those absurdly tough MSWs held here Holy Bull Day can immediately awaken JARLIAN in the first of the day’s grass races; one under the belt for a Mott trainee who’s part of a puzzling opener. ARROWHEART also got beat a pole in his latest, although the muddy track is an obvious excuse; as with the top pick, he’s got valuable experience in a lineup replete with unraced 3yos. MR. EINSTEIN, a firsttime gelding, gets the hedge and Irad for a team always motivated to move ‘em along.

SECOND RACE

No doubt this N2L-claiming dash goes thru the inside-drawn filly and that 76 BSF she was assigned in her Saffie unveiling, but let’s forget that for a second when opting instead for HOLD THE APPLAUSE, a decent 2nd at this same level behind a next-out winner; filly has been competitive on a number of occasions and offers a smidg of reliability for a trainer (Crichton) whose subpar championship-meet numbers are partly reflective of the huge meet he had over at Calder (19 for 55). Obviously her chances will depend on LUANN not running back to her debut; fact she’s right back for this same $12.5k tag (as opposed to a more substantial class jump) is something of an eyebrow-raiser; we’ll resist the 4-5 or whatever absurd number Irad helps her be. COOKIE COVE, already a 7-time runner-up, tends to run on for part.

THIRD RACE

Seems like you’ll see Chad debuting his young ones in turf routes more often than not, but the fact a 3yo such as PUBLICLY AVAILABLE is sprinting on the dirt at first asking suggests he’s a quick one; gray Liam’s Map colt has had 16 timed works, dating to late Sept. at Saratoga, in preparing for this, including a two-back Payson bullet; many will back on blind faith alone. Right alongside, CORRADO comes an obvious threat under similar logic, with the last 10 of his 15 official works having come for Shug at GP and Pay; Courtlandt homebred has a right to be fast, too. AMERICAN PRINCE and the $700k TAP 2yo purchase DUPUIS deserve long looks as well.

FOURTH RACE

After they all go speeding into and thru the turn, SPILL THE TEA can be sitting a chilly ground-saving trip under Jose when exiting that 2-turn turfer; call her the day’s best despite this appearing to be a very competitive MSW turf dash for soph fillies. NEVER AT ALL stands to benefit in a big way from a likely-needed-it debut in which she was a 3-1 ‘good thing’; outer post and Irad don’t hurt. CANDY JAR was a late-flying 2nd when getting 1st Lasix and is one of several additional considerations, along with another last-out runner-up, FIRST HOUR, and the Clement first-timer, TREVISE.

FIFTH RACE

See no reason why QUENANE can’t win right back at this starter level when retaining Irad off that Jan. 28 romp over some of these same grizzled veterans; 14 wins and 8 2nds for a 7yo who seems to know where the wire is. DANVILLE has been

transformed from an okay turfer into one even more effective on the main; outer box often a plus out of the long chute. CREATE AGAIN has been odds-on in his last two; hit-or-miss as to whether that kind of popularity at the tote translates into success on the playing field.

SIXTH RACE

No fewer than 14 works since mid-October in Chad preparing the $335k yearling purchase SOUTHERN DISTRICT for this debut going long on the grass; tote often provides a clue as to how a beginner like him might fare, and that probably applies here; be no surprise for the uber barn. CELLIST outran his 49-1 odds when prominent throughout his Jan. 16 debut; inclined to believe that wasn’t a fluke. WARN and SPOTTERS HILL both ship down from Payson as well-bred, well-connected firsters from high-profile barns and therefore merit full respect.

SEVENTH RACE

The Rainbow 6 (projected pool guarantee of about $600k) gets started with a bottom-level N3L spot in which SAINT LARNED looks as good as any, especially given how he’s liable to trip out nicely behind an abundance of speed; note the 10-for24 record compiled last year by the trainer who takes over; outer box can help Jaramillo get him into a smooth early rhythm. PURECRAZIDUDE has finished in the money in half of his 18 starts; can sit a trip from just behind IT’S A RISK, who’s stretching out when having to deal with other forwardgoing types such as MIDNIGHT WHISKEY, CHILL HAZE, and the class-dropping COOL HAND COOP.

EIGHTH RACE

This second division of the MSW turf route (with race 6) looks equally bewildering, but we’ll give the Amerman homebred, ADVANCED PLACEMENT, a solid chance when getting first Lasix following a decent pair of outings; improvement is required, obviously, but that seems a distinct possibility at the right kind of price. To the far outside, AVIANO figures among a core of lukewarm choices after having run respectably in all 3 priors; TAP reaches out to Irad to complete the job. The Maryland-bred MEGAYACHT could be a live one when coming unwrapped by the turf master Clement; he’s one to further consider, along with other fringe players such as HE’SPUREGOLD, ALEXANDER VALLEY, MY SEA COTTAGE, and POTUS.

NINTH RACE

No Thoroughbred stable on the planet has been hotter in the last week or two than that of Peter Walder, whose 1-2 finish in the 2nd race here Wednesday capped a remarkable 7-race win streak; now he’s got one of his faster steeds, CORY GAL, in off an eye-popping 98 BSF when sure to take an immediate fight to these other 5 filly-mare sprinters; trying to strike one more time while the iron is white-hot. EVE OF WAR returns after 7 months away for an HOF-to-be barn that excels with long-layoff types (26 pct. wins, $2.06 ROI), among most other categories; sure to be sharp and eager when lurking stealthily under Irad. SOUND MACHINE (blinkers off) exits a couple of graded stakes for Saffie and the Edwardses.

TENTH RACE

Gaudy 45-percent strike rate for David with his first-off-claim runners seems reason enough to like HURRICANE BREEZE in what seems a wellmatched N2L-claiming turf mile, especially with her staying put for this same $20k; stands to benefit from her latest as well, which came after a 3-month rest. GHOSTLY BEAUTY has been 2nd/3rd in 8 of 18, which compels you to use her ‘under’ in your verticals; just missed as a 9-5 fave in this same kind of spot when having Irad up six weeks ago. The NY-bred FREDDYMO FACTOR was part of the 3-way photo (with ‘Ghostly) when being dropped by Hennig into the key 1/16 race.

ELEVENTH RACE

Eight-length blowout debut earned BIG RINGS back-to-back stakes berths, and although she acquitted herself in decent fashion when wellbacked, she wasn’t quite good enough; now back in the allowance ranks, and with statebreds at that, she and Irad ought to find the company far more to her liking. NO DECAF loses Irad when getting Paco from the openair outside box off a couple of solid efforts; prominent from the start once again, you’d think. JADE EMPRESS jumped up to a 74 BSF in breaking her maiden with first Lasix last out for her HOF conditioner.

TWELFTH RACE

Ending another highly eventful GP week (and February) with the Wilkes filly KEITANY, whose two-back wakeup was followed by a change of tactics (and decent late run) on the last day of January; seems as good as any in a deep finale. NOBLE NAME debuts for Clement, who tends to waste little time in spotting his maidens realistically; one of a handful to seriously consider. STARSHIP NTERPRISE adds Lasix when in for a first-ever tag; has shown herself capable of doing better than her latest.