ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 3, V K STAR

FIRST RACE

UNCLE HAL is easy to like and also easy to knock, having run 2nd in each of his last three starts, but his Beyers are steady and fit well with this group; tactical speed another plus. GETTININTOMISCHIEF hasn’t hit the board since July but he does come out of some strong races for the class levels in his last couple; another with enough early zip to get involved from the start. MULLED WINE is a stone closer in need of pace and if the top two — and/ or others — were to hook up in the early stages his stock would rise; against the race flow in his latest.

SECOND RACE

DRAKESBORO WILDCAT moved prematurely before weakening in his first try on the turf, two back, and the resulting Beyer wasn’t all that bad; addition of blinkers figures to move him up, particularly if that sharp breeze on February 6th is any indication. GEORGIA PINES ships over from Gulfstream and could be the one they have to beat; best turf figures certainly put him in the mix, and though his last was sub-par it was on the main track and is easily forgivable. SWIFT KID is stuck on the AE list but if he gets to run he has to be strongly considered based on his best recent efforts; as always, his lack of speed is his biggest issue, but if the fractions are honest he could make an impact late.

THIRD RACE

V K STAR ran her best race yet last time despite finishing off the board, as she was under pressure from the start and the splits were quick, and it’s no coincidence that was her first start with Lasix; may be able to steal this if able to shake loose on an uncontested lead this time around. AIR FORCE PINK closed for 2nd in that same race, a beneficiary of the duel up front, and she obviously has to be respected here off that running line and Beyer. PATSY’S BIG GIRL had some traffic trouble in that same race; she has enough speed to stay close, which could prove an important consideration if the pace is in fact controlled.

FOURTH RACE

SARJENALLI didn’t have the cleanest of trips in that last one, when she was in against several of these same rivals, as she lacked racing room at a crucial point; she did close well and then gallop out with interest and she can surprise these with a clean trip, and perhaps a more forward trip. MY SISTER’S KEEPER is clearly a top contender after beating most of this field in that last one, benefiting from a terrific ride from Antonio Gallardo, who saved ground early and tipped out to rally late; would be no surprise if she were to repeat here. SUZIE’SSTEPPINOUT cuts back to six furlongs and this may well be her best distance; Beyers fit well as she drops in class but she does need pace, and this is not a sprint busting with speed.

FIFTH RACE

SECLUDE makes his first start against winners but he comes off a sharp maiden score, as he drew off smartly against a seemingly decent field, and he had a pace excuse in his debut; certainly fits here if he can run back to that maiden-breaking figure. TIME FOR TROUBLE scored on the dirt last time, in an off-the-turf event, but he is at least as good on the turf, and he is eligible to run these all down late given a quick pace and a clean trip, as he has some of the better Beyers in the field. THAT’S BUCKBEAK was against the race flow in each of his last two starts but if he can shake loose in the opening stages and then back it down some he has license to hang on for a share, at a price.

SIXTH RACE

LARGE makes his first start off the claim for trainer Jose Delgado, which makes him a threat by default given the barn’s success with such runners; he also has appeal as an upgrade candidate off his latest, as he had little chance to close against that two-speed exacta. MOBEATYABAD makes his first start since April and returns as a gelding, complete with a couple of nice works; will look to

steal this for trainer Eoin Harty, who does well with horses returning from an extended break. QUICK

STEP ED is another off the layoff, albeit a shorter one; he has back figures that fit well with these, and he also has the tactical speed to stay close from the start.

SEVENTH RACE

CONNAGH’S QUAY settled for the show in his local debut but that was a fine try, as he did well to rally and make up some ground late in a race that was light on early zip; that was also a deep field, and while this is another solid group he’s more than capable of making the last run here given some pace help up front. COMMON BOND makes his career debut for trainer Michael Stidham, who of course wins at a strong rate with firsters, especially on the turf; lone sibling posted his lone career win on the green. HACHURE —kin to a slew of turf winners in the U. S. and abroad — was no threat in his debut, on the grass, but he returned to run a nice race in his first start off the bench; while that race was on the dirt it was also his first start with Lasix, and he’s likely to run better here than he did in his first career start with medication added.

EIGHTH RACE

SIX CIDER was off slowly in his latest, then made a couple of separate mid-race runs before he flattened out late; he was also off the board in his prior try, his first start off the layoff, but he had a race flow excuse there, and he may be able to surprise these with a late run if he gets a quick, contested pace to chase. HIGH FIVE COTTON was at tactical disadvantages in each of his last two starts, both losses, and while some may look at those declining Beyers and think he’s going off form it’s a much better bet that the pace scenarios he encountered there are to blame; fully expecting a rebound from him here, as he was very sharp at the end of 2020. ELGAR ran very well in each of his last two and now drops from $20,000; in-form closer has a decent late kick but he also has the positional speed to work out a favorable trip, regardless of how the race shape develops.

NINTH RACE

MISS WROTE is wide but speedy, and she meets lesser after failing to last in her three starts against winners at Gulfstream; this appears to be a below average group for the class level, and if she can get clear without much issue in the opening stages she’ll be tough to reel in. STRICT VOW could be the one to fear late; she has certainly had her chances at this elusive second career win but she has been closing with interest of late, and her Beyers put her in the middle of this fairly wide-open week finale. PASSIONFORTREASURE didn’t break well last time and that cost her position, which is a big part of her game; will be just off the pace today with a clean getaway, and that should mean she’s well spotted just off the top pick from the start.