ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 5, CAPO MAFIOSO

FIRST RACE

EXULTATION prefers finishing second (one win, five seconds), but his solid comeback over this course at this level stamps the habitual bridesmaid the one to beat. He broke slowly, dropped off the pace and finished well. Three works since indicate he holds form, the extra half-furlong of this six and a half-furlong turf race helps. BENCH JUDGE returns to the level at which he was claimed from a runner-up try three back. Both subsequent starts were okay, in the money as the favorite, but he fits better this level. Like the top choice, six and a half is just about right. HARTEL ran super in the same race as the top choice. HARTEL sped to the lead, set a fast pace and held third. If he rations his speed second start back, he could wire the field. SIGALERT is first-time tag; FOOTHILL returns to a turf sprint as an upset candidate.

SECOND RACE

BIG WELL can post a mild upset in this Cal-bred maiden-50 dirt mile following a better-than-looked fifth vs. Cal-bred MSWs. He uncorked a rally into and through the far turn, hit heavy traffic in the lane and was forced to alter course, then ran on to finish only a length and a half behind the runnerup. That race was turf, this is dirt, BIG WELL ran okay on dirt two back. He can wear these down from off the pace. GABBY HAYES figures to vie for favoritism, stretching out for the first time with an even-paced style that suggests he wants two turns. With a seven-pound apprentice allowance, he is likely to be forwardly placed on the stretchout. Logical lower-odds contender. BIG FRANK DA TANK drops and switches to dirt; FUNKENSTEIN missed by a neck in his debut, a low-rated sprint. Tough to win a route race off a single sprint.

THIRD RACE

CIDER APPLE ran well in her U.S. debut, a thirdplace comeback prep that sets her up for a maiden win while shortening to a mile. She produced no speed her first local start, trailed the field, split horses at the top of the lane and produced a strong late rally. With that race under her belt, she should be tough rallying from behind. However, sprint-toroute SHVERE ARBETER is worth consideration on the pace angle. First time long, she is quick enough to make the lead, her pedigree is fine for a mile. Expect her try to wire the field. SWEETEST ANGEL finished second last out, in front of the top choice. It was the best effort of her seven-start career; she hit the board all four turf starts against maidens. HYLAND HAVEN has a productive trainer-jockey combo in her corner; JIBBER JABBER makes her U.S. debut as the unknown. Euro-imports from this stable occasionally pop at a price.

FOURTH RACE

MOTOWN MUSIC meets easier in this starter allowance than the N1X he faced last out. He also benefits by a quicker pace scenario. The allowance he exits was a slow-pace affair won by the pacesetter; ‘MUSIC chased and was outsprinted late. His best races are rallying from behind; he can get that trip due to the speedster in post No. 5. RONAMO returns from a layoff of nearly four months for a trainer whose comebackers typically are ready to fire. RONAMO finished a clear second at this N3L starter allowance level last out. DR. TROUTMAN is the aforementioned post-5 front-runner. He returned to form last out with a sharp third in a fast-pace turf mile. He will take the field as far as he can.

FIFTH RACE

CAPO MAFIOSO ran much better than the line looks last out in a similar maiden-50 turf sprint out of the chute. After he leaped in the air at the dirt crossing and again when the chute joined the turf, he leveled into stride, but then got shuffled and lost position into the turn. He re-rallied through traffic, then ultimately lost his punch and finished fourth by less than four lengths. He would have finished much closer with a clean trip. Rider switch to the meet leader, and an additional halffurlong, he can win as “best bet” on the card. OX BRIDGE returns from a long layoff as a first-time gelding dropping in for a tag. Fresh face merits respect. CHIPPER also is first-time tag. Uncertain

if turf is his preferred footing, but the competition certainly is easier.

SIXTH RACE

STIR THE POT ran the best race of his career last out, his first at the maiden-20 level. He sped to the lead, set the pace to deep stretch and held second. Solid front-running effort at six furlongs. Now he shortens to five and a half and looms the one to beat with an up-front trip. COUNT ALEXEI returns from a four-month layoff while running for a tag for the first time in the ninth start of his career. His speed figures on turf are highest on this field, uncertain if he can reproduce the numbers on dirt. Win or lose, expect ‘ALEXEI to vie for the lead. SYNSKY returns from a layoff as a longshot candidate from off the pace. He split the field both starts last summer; he figures to be outrun early and pick them up off late. NOTRE DAME also shows up at the bottom for the first time. He could influence the pace.

SEVENTH RACE

BLACKOUT is back doing what he does, which is sprint on turf. He opened a crazy five-length lead last time racing a mile, and wilted in the stretch. Now he cuts back to six furlongs, is reunited with the jockey who him to his last three wins, and his versatile style allows him to tuck in behind the abundant speed. CASTLE is arguably the “best horse,” a Cal-bred stakes winner who is 6-for-16 overall. However, he raced only once the past year, and now returns for a low $25k tag. This stable can fire with comebackers, just not certain where CASTLE belongs class-wise at age 8. BEDROCK, stablemate of the top choice, is worth considering first off the claim by Peter Miller, gelded since raced, with a closing style that suits the likely tempo. Though unplaced four previous starts on turf, he might be a better horse for his new connections. Look for him late, at a price. STRIKE IT LUCKY ran the best race of his career the last time he sprinted on turf. Off-the-pace upset again?

EIGHTH RACE

FASHIONABLY FAST seeks his second straight Tiznow Stakes victory, the figures say he is as good as last year. His comeback third in the fastpace Cal Cup Sprint was solid for a horse making his first start in five months. He actually earned a higher figure finishing third in this year’s Cal Cup than last year when he won. ‘FAST worked well since raced, and figures for a cozy trip right behind the speed. BRANDOTHEBARTENDER, in his sixth season of racing, ran well both recent routes and probably benefits by a cutback from nine furlongs to one mile. A reliable and consistent gelding, he might prefer one turn, but he is always good for a piece in Cal-bred stakes. MARGOT’S BOY looms the upset candidate. He merely ran around the course last time, non-competitive, but that was a strange race that unfolded at a blistering pace. This is an easier spot for ‘BOY, who figures to be positioned closer to the leaders. SURFING STAR is speed, second start back. If his Feb. 6 comeback was merely a prep, he fits with these. DESMOND DOSS moves up the ladder in sharp form. He won a Cal-bred N1X last out.

NINTH RACE

WHISTLER’S STYLE drops from maiden specialweight into a relatively soft maiden-50, while switching to the leading rider. ‘STYLE improved last out in her first start on turf. She set the pace into the lane before tiring to fifth while racing beyond her preferred distance. She shortens from a mile and one-eighth to a mile, and can ration her speed more efficiently under Prat. MALIBU HANNAH also drops, from MSW sprint to maidenclaiming mile. She has speed, even without blinkers, and looms a contender on the front end. JUDY WITH GRACE finished an okay fourth last out, missing by a half-length in her first at this level. She will rally late. AVISSE tossed in a complete dud last out, fifth at odds-on without a visible alibi. Just a poor effort from which she was claimed. Her November-December form would be good enough.