Daily Racing Form National Digital Edition
ANALYSIS
FIRST RACE
UH OH LUCY was crossed entered in a race on Monday with a lot of speed but this race is almost the opposite and just easier. Works are perfect and we mean perfect. This filly can stalk if needed but we think they gun in 4YO debut. Scott Stevens is named to ride but he was hurt was last week so we wish him a speedy and full recovery. BURNADEBT got some play in her return try but just didn’t fire. This barn is 22% second off this type of layoff and they show a flat bet profit. A more seasoned pilot gets a leg up with Corbett at the helm. TRANS MISSISSIPPI was stuck on the rail in local debut previously but won anyway and did so at 9/2. What if she just likes it here? Class jump is big and recent Beyer below par but difficult to toss this barn (Vitali).
SECOND RACE
HENNESSY’S SQUIRT is set to improve second time this dirt. Notice that this gelding didn’t get that much play last out even though his Beyers of late were solid. He might have needed that race as do many shippers from New Mexico. There is no panicky drop as 21% barn gets much better race flow today. MEET JOE is the outside speed or outside stalker either of which is a plus. This gelding has hit the board in three of four local tries. Second time this level can’t hurt and this horse gets a veteran jock today. HERZEN can pass runners and that is a good fit for this jock. Current form fits and this gelding did go favored only two back.
THIRD RACE
MR RIGHT NOW continues to improve and gets a stern test today as this field came up tough. We know an improving young horse when we see one and that is this guy. Lone poor try came two back versus stakes foes and notice how far back this guy was early on as if something went awry. He certainly bounced back in his most recent when winning with something left at almost 2-1. That field was solid too. This colt gets good race flow and figures to save all the early ground. We like that he has worked between starts. It would be no surprise if this guy was 4th choice or better. BLACK OPS exits the key common race where 2 of 4 returned to win with figs of 80 and 76. Leading barn and jock make this guy an automatic contender plus he can pass runners. GATO GUAPO goes second off the layoff for Diodoro and with sharp recent works. Recent bullet work is especially nice. With Stevens laid up a new jock will be named.
FOURTH RACE
REAL GOOD DEAL loved the class drop last out when winning at 3/2. This mare got good pace in that race and gets the same today. New barn is 42% off the claim and they get the leading rider in the process. Can you say back to back? MOMS FAVORITE is in good form, draws inside, can pass runners, gets good race flow, and turns around quickly. For the first time in four starts this mare doesn’t start from the rail. MISS WINE TOPPER has some speed and draws inside so why not go for it. You never know when the other speed is just going to take back. That front running try two back was OK and this mare figures a good price.
FIFTH RACE
ISHKA BAJA broke dead last in her debut and then did little but we can forgive anyone’s debut. She clipped heels in her second start and again that is easily forgivable. Three of six sibs beat winners and they came every other sibling and if that holds then it bodes well for this one. This barn is 29% with new runners and notice that they own this horse. The rail going only five furlongs isn’t so bad. LEMON DROP KIT KAT ran OK in her first two starts and gets off the rail for this. She gets
in light and might have some sneaky speed. MISS
REBEKAH faced better in SoCal. She has speed but so do a few others. She will have to ship and win today as we don’t see a local work. Second time Lasix is a plus. JAZZ FOX is by a 3% debut sire. Her dam was un-raced and this is her first foal.
SIXTH RACE
AVALON KING is bred to love the grass with his 335 turf Tomlinson. He tried the local green for the first time last out and ran great when third by a length at 15-1. Today’s pace isn’t nearly as fast so this guy should have more late energy. The absolute one to beat. VODKA TWIST will be a price. New barn wastes little time finding this guy a turf race so maybe the claim was all about that. This horse faced special weights at Santa Anita when last seen on the green. Turf Tomlinson is actually good at 330. This gelding did get some play last out at 2-1 only to run poorly but it was his first race in Arizona. FISHEL ran OK off the layoff and does have grass experience. What if this horse just didn’t like Colorado over the summer? OUT ON SATURDAY is by a 5% debut turf sire. His dam never tried the green nor did lone sib. PREACHINATDINNER is by a 0 for 16 debut turf sire. His dam never tried the green nor did three sibs to this gelding.
SEVENTH RACE
COUGAR COUNTRY has some speed and goes third off the layoff all while drawing more inside than out. Our advice: gun, gun, and then gun some more. The last two times that this gelding won were front running tries. We love that recent bullet work. Double digits anyone? PROOF IT is the one to beat. Evans takes over while first call rider gets a leg up. KING PARKER has some speed and drops in class. That 70 Beyer only two back stands out. Horse for course is another possibility.
EIGHTH RACE
BLUE AZUL is feeling great and we like his versatile style. His most recent was better than it looks. This horse loves this dirt and gets more time between starts than previously. The leading barn helps chances but hurts price. BIG BARREL draws inside main pace foe which is the 7 (Evans other runner). This gelding got a taste of winning and liked it. Note the recent work which is always a good sign. We like that connections find a spot where this horse can’t be taken. MATSON is in good from and jumps in class all while drawing nicely. What if this 4YO is still improving? A better price than many of these.
NINTH RACE
THATSMRRFTTOYOU did try better before the long layoff. His return try was OK but he still lost as the big chalk. He has worked twice since so maybe, just maybe, he needed his return try to some extent. Added half furlong helps while this barn is 21% second off this type of layoff. DIIACHI ran OK off the layoff and did so at 17-1. Here is another where an extra half furlong can only help. We would like this gelding more if he had some front speed. WRITE ITINTHE DUST broke 9th of 12 in his return try and that had to hurt. This guy had speed before the long layoff. This is a great spot to find it.
TENTH RACE
TOP OF THE ROCK is by a 12% debut turf sire. His dam was un-raced and this is her first grass foal. Connections liked this colt enough to try stakes foes last out where this horse beat half the field home. He should love two turns on the grass with only knock this outside post. MONUMENTAL SEVEN is a proven turf router that has a good work tab. Long layoff is the X factor. GO TIME just won on this sod. He lands nd in a good barn but may need a start to settle in. The Davis barn just has to heat up soon but we have been writing that for a while but to no avail.