ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, PERSPIRE

FIRST RACE

A 10-race Thursday card is expected to be run amid continuing dry and pleasant conditions (high temps near 80) and with a Rainbow 6 (R5-10) jackpot offering a pool guarantee somewhere around $1 million. Looking for Irad to take any edge they’ll grant him in the 1:10p ET opener aboard MIAHSOLOMIAH, whose turn of speed simply looks superior to the rest; stayed fit with that 2/7 off-turf try, even though she tired late; won’t be much price, but still. OUR WEST INDY takes an interesting cut-back in distance for KJB after tending to show early interest in 2-turn races at a similarly low level; outer box helps Jaramillo with his stalking endeavors. TALEGA DINERO wasn’t too bad first out.

SECOND RACE

Jose D’Angelo of Jesus’ Team fame is throwing everything at once at the newly acquired BIG FRANK — first gelding, first Lasix, blinkers on, a subtle off-the-claim class drop, and perhaps even the kitchen sink; trying to improve off Saffie following a layoff of more than 9 weeks can be tricky, but it’s not like this Fla.-bred hadn’t already rounded into decent form; we’ll fall for it. LOAD UP MOE is woefully slow thru the early stages, but that’s been versus classier types; now adds blinks and gets the outer-box advantage when looking to steamroll ‘em late. ULTIMATE GIFT, a $350k yearling, now goes for $12.5k when likely to be underlaid for the Irad/TAP axis; no thanks.

THIRD RACE

In what’s one of several extremely competitive grass races on the day, we’ll try to get CONVICT PIKE through this N3L condition at what should be a square price after the 7yo showed signs of life with that last-out late surge; two-time winner has racked up nearly $250k in earnings, so that tells you he’s got a tinge of class to him; why not. BIG MAN BOB ran pretty well behind the top pick in his first try since coming under the Ms. Danner fold; 4yo has some ‘try’ to him. CAIRO CAMPAIGN, never worse than 3rd in all 5 career starts, matches up well with a handful of other logical contenders here, although Irad will squash the price.

FOURTH RACE

Third race in the form cycle for the West homebred VEGAS WEEKEND, along with the drop from a pair of $50k mdn.-claimers and the turn-back to this more preferred distance, perhaps the keys to victory after she was a fading 3rd as the favorite last out; three-time bridesmaid primed to knock the door down. NUSCAA, third in all 3 career starts, comes well drawn in an outer box as a likely pace presser; looking for a best yet. JAMSSTAR was a solid runner-up for her first tag and merits a look here, too.

FIFTH RACE

First leg of the 20-cent Rainbow 6 looks about as difficult as they come; not many throw-outs in this field of 9 filly-mare turf routers grouped under a starter heading. Slight nod here to the hedgedrawn WICKED MERCURY, who’s been competitive in every start since last summer; could use a nice ground-saving trip before punching home. On the other end of the gate, CANDY FLOWER comes a timely claim for Saffie and Zayas, both of whom are enjoying a huge meet; forward factor after loading-n-going. SENGEKONTACKET, CAMELLIA GAL, and MY LIPS ARE SEALED are all compulsory plays on a serious Rainbow ticket.

SIXTH RACE

PERSPIRE sure to be proclaimed a bingo-freespace type by many multi-race players, especially once you examine the dreary form of her five opponents in this ‘beaten’ upper-tier claimer for filly-mare milers; the December comeback for the Arindel homebred in a tough allowance should prove highly useful toward this 2nd try,

and now Irad comes aboard; again, this is a very weak group for the level, so let’s call her the day’s best. ALIZEE adds blinkers in her first Saffie start; former Navarro trainee been hit-or-miss over the last year or so. TIME TO TWO STEP is better than her latest.

SEVENTH RACE

Here’s Irad with a big-foot move in picking up the mount on KATAMA MOONLIGHT, who’s been on the threshold of leaving the maiden ranks for some time now; somehow blew a big midstretch lead in her latest, but that’s what Irad has been hired to correct; wire-job a definite possibility. REGAL PASSAGE gets a fresh start for DeVaux to build on those decent autumn efforts in Ky.; steady PmM work slate has her sitting on go. LOOK ME OVER met pretty tough customers in NY; Beyers say she’s a player here.

EIGHTH RACE

Play-back of the Feb. 10 race won by SOLDOLLIE in a photo over GAME BOY BENNY definitely in play here, with Irad getting the call from new trainer Levy three weeks hence; given the obvious flaws of the other six in here, a run-it-back exacta would surprise absolutely no one. UNPUBLISHED could mess up that plan with his best, but the 4-plus month layoff makes him suspect.

NINTH RACE

Doesn’t take a super sleuth to recognize that VIVIDLY might well have won her stateside debut if she hadn’t blown the break, as she came steaming home to be part of a cavalry charge in that Jan. 23 turf mile; fact that Irad steps up an additional clue that this British-bred ought to be very live here. DROP A HINT, by the uber-hot Into Mischief, lost a heartbreaker in the off-turf Suwannee River, but it’s her solid effort in the Sands Point last fall that points out her potential here; multitude of trainers since leaving the TAP barn does temper the enthusiasm. NORTH BROADWAY was pretty wellregarded when with Chad; duly regrouped, let’s see how she does now with Ms. Lewis, a 30-plus-year veteran.

TENTH RACE

Know better than to rely solely on stats to suggest Tom Bush is a zero with turf sprinters such as CLAMOR, as we’re all aware the veteran trainer tends to do his best with this kind, and the samples on display in his PP are pretty small; seems this NY-bred been doing just fine up in Boynton, and the $20k could hit him right between the eyes; decent price play to end the day. SURPRISE FACTOR turns back and gets Irad in his first try for Ms. Danner after barely missing at a mile; has an obvious inclination to settle for 2nd/3rd, but yeah, surely this gray dude will come favored here. GOING FOR GOLD led most of the way before settling for 2nd in this same type of race off a year’s layoff for Loooch & Anth; similar effort lands him in the mix.