ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 8, SOUTHERN GRAYCE

FIRST RACE

The card Thursday is highlighted by a first-level allowance sprint for 3-year-old fillies that drew Ava’s Grace, the third-place finisher from last year’s Grade 2 Adirondack at Saratoga. She is starting her season. In the opener, DANZIG STAR must overcome the wide post but should be sharp for the task on the move from six panels to a mile and a sixteenth. She also gets in lighter than some of these under apprentice Morales. ELLA’S MY GIRL has a start over the track and reason to move forward in her second race since September. SPILLED PERFUME moves to two turns off the solid debut and gets pedigree support for the added distance demands. More than capable.

SECOND RACE

SPOTTED BULL can make a real impact with a repeat of the Beyer Figure of 75 he earned three starts back for a runner-up finish for this price at Remington. EASTSIDE COOL invades from Fair Grounds, and like that he’s moved forward with each of his starts. He also brings speed to the table. BODE’S LIGHT meets winners for the first time, but owns the field’s best last-race Beyer Speed Figure.

THIRD RACE

STREET TOLL raced over a wet track for the first time last out and popped a career-high Beyer Speed Figure. AWESOME CHARGE owns the field’s best last-race Beyer Figure, for a promising effort in his career debut. SKYWAVE could take these gate to wire, or perhaps track KING HENRIK.

FOURTH RACE

TOWN CHAMP was second last out to a Grade 1-placed runner riding a two-race win streak. This one is a horse-for-course, with a 4-for-6 record at Oaklawn. His two defeats here were second-place finishes in what overall is an outstanding body of work in Hot Springs. D’ RAPPER is a consistent sort with back class to call upon. He’s also appealing for his natural speed. GORDY FLORIDA is a talented sort who draws a post that might give

Eramia options. This one ran a big race off the bench last time and would seem to have reason to move forward in his second start since last March.

FIFTH RACE

DAIGLE is on the also-eligible list, but would be a chief player were she to draw into the body of the race as she has turned in a series of consistent performances against steeper. RACHIE RACH, like top choice, makes the meaningful move to the maiden claiming ranks for the first time. FRANKIES MOONSHINE ran a credible fourth in her debut last out and is a logical choice back.

SIXTH RACE

PICK UP THE FONE was fourth last out in a race that has become a key one. The runner-up came back in her next start to account for a conditioned allowance at MVR with a Beyer Figure of 56, and the third-place finisher, an optional $20K claimer at Haw, with a Beyer of 74. AWESOME INDRA has natural speed and owns the field’s best last-race Beyer Figure. BEAUTY DAY exits same race as AWESOME INDRA. This one has proven to be a consistent sort as a rule. Another of interest is FRENCH ROSE.

SEVENTH RACE

MOTOWN GIRL is from a stakes-winning mare who ran out $317K and who has produced a Grade 3 winner in Name Changer ($567K). VILLAREGGIA was third against similar last out and the race was her first since November. She would seem to have reason to move forward. SHE’S XTREMELY HOT cuts back to one turn, site of her closest finish on form.

EIGHTH RACE

SOUTHERN GRAYCE met winners for the first time last out and the Beyer Speed Figure of 81 that she popped is the best career number in this race. She was prominent over a laboring kind of track and before that had won her debut on a

fast track. EXOTIC WEST is back in the overnight ranks following the Grade 2 start at Santa Anita and for this trip will be first Lasix. EKATI’S HIT exits same race as top choice, and did not get the break that day. AVA’S GRACE launches her season after a promising start to her career last year that included a third-place finish in the Grade 2 Adirondack at Saratoga.

NINTH RACE

RARE FORM put up a Beyer Figure of 91 last out and a repeat of that number might make him tough to contain in this spot. He is making his first start since November. HIDDEN PROMISE shows some strong local works for his first race since December. He spent the latter half of last year running in Southern California, but is proven on the surface here at Oaklawn. BALANDEEN, who has seen steeper, is making his first start since August. Becker wins at an above average rate with runners returning from layoffs of more than 180 days, according to statistics from Daily Racing Form.