Daily Racing Form National Digital Edition
ANALYSIS
FIRST RACE
MY BROTHER NEIL raced very greenly in his sprint debut when finishing a distant third behind an odds-on winner and has since traded decisions with FULL MOON FEVER over a mile while fighting for the leftovers; looks like the main speed stretching out again here after contesting the pace and staying on pretty well last time with blinkers and Lasix on. FULL MOON FEVER also raced green;y while debuting in the same race as the top one, then ran well when second-best behind a talented winner in his second start; lack of speed has been an issue thus far and added ground may not be what he is looking for, though he has gained late ground every time so far. RUMDUM BYDA SEA has failed to get involved behind the top two in his first couple of career starts, both of those over wet tracks; bred to handle the added ground.
SECOND RACE
MENTAL MODEL earned a couple of Beyers early on that stand out in this field while racing for top connections, and has not run back to that level since being claimed; caught a wet track and failed to run behind the streaking Doubly Blessed (now three for three on dirt in his career after returning to win twice more with Beyers of 93 and 97) when returned from the layoff in January; back after another couple of months on the sidelines looking to rebound. UNBRIDLED JOHN wired maiden claimers to get the overdue maiden victory over this track and trip in his final start of 2020, then came right back to run pretty well vs. the aforementioned Doubly Blessed in his next start; dueled and tired in a race that went to a closer last time. BULWARK has speed stretching out for the first time, and there are a couple of races from early last year to suggest that he can factor here; races since returning from the layoff have been less than inspiring.
THIRD RACE
TAPIZEARANCE caught a sloppy track when wheeled back on short rest off the claim last week and chased up close before tiring late in a race that held together in front of him; back quickly again cutting back slightly with efforts two and three back that look pretty good here. MONEY IN THE BANK has been in the exacta in all five dirt starts to date and goes off the claim for Englehart with figures that contend; settled for second each of the last two times in races that came back fast for the level. TRUEBELIEVE didn’t run well behind MONEY IN THE BANK when dropped in class last December, and he didn’t do much better in his next start when trying a mile; improved off the claim for Arriaga last time when contesting the pace all the way and just failing to hold.
FOURTH RACE
MR GHOST debuted last week on a day when the rail was likely a real advantage, though that was really a speed track, and he couldn’t get forward at a big price; was racing on some late and has the pedigree to stretch out as he cuts in half for his second start. LOADED JOE is just about out of chances after 19 starts, though he has run a couple of good ones, be it on turf or dirt, usually when he is able to be part of the pace; projects to be on the early lead in this spot. KITH’s dirt debut last October wasn’t a bad effort while rallying from out of it, and he has caught wet tracks in two of his three dirt starts since; needs some pace.
FIFTH RACE
INDIAN COUNSELOR is not one to trust at a short price he ships in and switches from turf to dirt off the trainer change, as he lacks early speed and tends to do his best running when the race is already over, but he does appear to be properly spotted for his NY debut and has consistently earned some of the best figures in the field. DANGEROUS EDGE posted his lone win to date a year ago almost to the day and he has held his form since then without scoring again; last couple of one-turn miles are both solid efforts and he might be able to do better with a more well-timed ride. COLORMEPAZZI is slow on the way in but he has some speed in a race that may not be run at a fast pace, and he is dropping slightly in class for this as he goes third off the layoff; just missed to next-out stakes winner Chowda over track and trip as a 2yo, though that was a rated pace.
SIXTH RACE
MISS MI MI ran well to close down Rude Awakening off the layoff in December, then caught a wet track and didn’t run as poorly as it may appear two starts back; tough go last time while chasing 3-to-4 wide throughout on a day when the rail was a big advantage. MALIBU MISCHIEF won six in a row starting last June while using her ample early speed and earning some solid figures, the first three of those coming in NY, and her last two starts have come vs. some much better horses; drops back down for hot connections. FLAT AWESOME JENNY didn’t fire after a wide trip over that wet track two back but she rebounded over fast dirt to score easily off the claim last time; probably best over a fast track and she has plenty of races that make her tough in here.
SEVENTH RACE
TIMELY TRADITION hasn’t been asked to go beyond sprint distances in over two years, though she has won a couple of races over this distance in her career; put together a solid 2020 campaign while winning four of eight, and running well in the races where she didn’t come out on top; figures tough in here if holding her form with speed from the outside. PERSISTO started out with some promise while facing some solid competition, but her figures have not been trending upward since finally picking up her second win last October; can make some excuses for her recent efforts, and thought she ran well last time even while unable to get by GRACETOWN on the lead; cuts back. GRACETOWN held off PERSISTO last time after cutting a legit pace around two turns in what may be an underrated effort, that after stretching out to a one-turn mile two back to post an easy win at Laurel; has tactical speed and won twice over this track early on.
EIGHTH RACE
BIG TONY’S GIRL got bet and ran well to just miss on debut last November and has run well in her two starts at this level this year, including that last one when caught chasing from the outside on a day when the rail was the place to be; one ore try. NEW YORK BANKER was pressed by a 1/5 favorite before fading on the drop two back, then raced off the strong rail going a mile last time; cuts back with speed. WHAT MIGHTAVEBEEN chased wide and tired vs. MSW rivals first time out, then contested it over a mile last time before giving way; cutting back with Lasix and blinkers on.