ANALYSIS

FIRST RACE

Comebacker MISS LADY ANN is well-placed for her first start since April in this low-level N2L claiming sprint. This is her first try at the bottom level, her speed figures in late 2019 and early 2020 are fast enough, she runs well fresh and trainer Dean Pederson won with his most recent comebacker off six months or more; that was $25k claiming N2L runner Raul Rojas a year ago with Tiago Pereira aboard. Same connections this time; MISS LADY ANN will not need to be Fashionably Fast to handle these. RANEEM has a current racing advantage over the top choice, recent runner-up at this level. It was a slow race, but she ran okay and figures for another forwardly placed trip in a race likely to unfold at a tepid pace. BELLA RENELLA drops to the bottom for the first time and will pick them up late; IT’S A RIDDLE needed 14 starts to finally win a maiden-claiming race, but “lightbulb-on” maiden winners can win right back at the bottom N2L claiming level.

SECOND RACE

This maiden-30 sprint is a good spot to take a shot at a price with LULU D’ ORO. She worked better than she ran first time out, perhaps the race was merely a prep. She was rated, appeared uncomfortable early, dropped back and ran around the track. It was odd, because she reportedly had outworked her stablemate (drawn to her outside this race), but it looked like ‘ORO was only pepping. Two easy works since, blinkers on, tab for an odds-beating effort. Trainer Victor Garcia is 5-for-16 with second-start maiden-claiming runners the past five years. BEST OF SHOW, third both starts, will rally late first start off the claim by Steve Miyadi. The knock is she appears to have zero early speed. Look for her late. BIG AL’S PRINCESS, aforementioned stablemate to the top choice, set the pace and tired to fourth in her debut. Improvement possible; the same high-percent trainer stats that apply to ‘ORO also apply to ‘PRINCESS. CHROME OF OUR OWN drops to maiden-claiming, goes route to sprint, turf to dirt, and adds Lasix.

THIRD RACE

FENWAY and HARBORED MEMORIES are tough to separate in this special-weight route for 3-year-old maidens. In a close call, the edge goes to the colt with two-turn experience. That is FENWAY, who improved a ton second out. He set easier fractions and held second. While he certainly benefitted by the tepid pace, he is headed the right way and with two routes under his belt might have the edge over the high-figure stretch-out. That is HARBORED MEMORIES, a sibling to multiple route stakes winner Galilean and stretching following from a pair of fast runner-up finishes in races won by subsequent Pasadena Stakes winner Rock Your World and probable San Felipe (Saturday) starter Dream Shake. ‘MEMORIES earned a strong 86 Beyer last out, finished more than three clear of third and ran like a colt that wants two turns. STAR SAILOR adds blinkers following three successive in-the-money finishes; HUDSON RIDGE stretches out and switches to dirt after a speed-and-fade debut. He is quick enough to make the lead if he wants.

FOURTH RACE

Runner-up his recent comeback, at the same class/ distance/surface, CITY RAGE is the one to beat. He actually ran a winning race in his return, rallying to the lead in the stretch and finishing clear of third. Good return from a three-month freshening. The only real knock is that this race is short on pace; ‘RAGE runs from behind. Another late-runner is RAGER, who took advantage of a fast pace to finish second in his comeback. He will not get the same fast splits here, and he is racing over his conditions (eligible to N2L starter, this is N3L starter), but he is in form and he will finish. ONE FLEW SOUTH looks like the one to catch. He pressed his way to a fast $25k claiming N2L win last out, and was claimed. Up in class, quick enough to make the lead in a race without true speed, he could be gone. QUICK FINISH misfired last out, without an apparent alibi. But his two previous starts against better company put him in the hunt.

FIFTH RACE

Two turns on dirt is new for COMPLETE CONTROL, but the Cal-bred maiden-50 gets ideal circum

stances to try. Assuming he is asked for speed, the stretch-out sprinter could make the lead from the rail. His sprint form is decent, he gets a sevenpound weight break, and might be gone. Ten of the last 23 dirt miles were won by the pacesetter. HERE

COMES RALPHIE ran the best race of his career last out in his first route. Perhaps two turns is what he has wanted all along. HALF HOPING could go favored based on his 59-Beyer runner-up last out that was validated when third place ‘RALPHIE returned to finish second. This is the first route for ‘HOPING, whose dam won multiple routes but whose sire gets mostly sprinters. The main knock on ‘HOPING is price. His high figure means he will likely start at relatively low odds.

SIXTH RACE

MY TIGRESS should be tough at low odds based on her highly rated runner-up debut at this Cal-bred maiden-50 level. The filly that beat her returned to defeat winners. MY TIGRESS is drawn outside, has speed, and the top figure. ELGOFRANCO is a 12-start maiden adding blinkers, returning to dirt and returning to the level of her runner-up finish in November. She has gas to keep the top choice in her sights. FURSACE debuted against allowance winners, and actually ran okay. She pressed/ chased the pace to the furlong pole before she tired and finished fifth. Not bad considering the competition. She drops into a maiden race and should improve vs. easier competition. Inside post no bargain, of course. TWENTY SEVEN TROUT S showed ability in her runner-up debut, way back in summer 2019. This is her first start since.

SEVENTH RACE

LI’L GRAZEN could be tough to catch in this Calbred N1X/optional claiming race is otherwise void of speed. The front-running mare figures to make the lead against a field of closers, and be gone while taking a significant class drop from $25k claiming starter. Northern California-based SING IN THE WIND is an honest mare who defeated open N1X foes last out. The challenges facing the sixtime winner include a pace scenario that does not favor her closing style, and uncertainty regarding surface. Most of her starts were on synthetic; two dirt starts produced one third. KRISTI’S TIGER finished second as the favorite both recent starts at this state-bred level. She is not a true “frontrunner,” but might have enough early zip to be positioned second behind the top choice. JAN JAN CAN defeated race-1 contender Raneem last out. TIME FOR EBBY will be rolling late.

EIGHTH RACE

NOBLE THOUGHT drops from $40k claiming starter to $25k claiming after a modest sixth his local debut. A 12-time winner in the East and Midwest, his autumn wins at Belmont and Aqueduct are fast enough to defeat these. FRENCH GETAWAY has not won in more than a year, but he has been running well against similar company. He will rally late. The off-the-pace styles of the top pair might be a challenge considering that the last four turf races at this mile and one-eighth distance were won by the pacesetter. The short-term profile benefits longshot MO BOB, who is potentially outclassed but a possible pacesetter in a field short on speed. Come catch him. FABOZZI also has some speed. He also seems outclassed, but merits a look on pace.

BEST BET: RACE 6, MY TIGRESS