ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 10, ITS A BOY

FIRST RACE

Who else is there other than than the first time starter in here? AUNT RUTHIE is by a 16% debut sire. Her dam went 16-1-2-2 and earned 83K. Both sibs won including a multiple winner. Gap in works is troubling along with rail draw going 6 1/2 panels but we actually like Diodoro with debut maiden claimers IF they take some early money. BODE’S BEST has some tactical speed and goes third off the layoff. This filly went favored in her debut in SoCal but has only beaten a combined three horses home in her career. STREAMING TIGER did show speed two back and is dropping in class. Your race favorite?

SECOND RACE

MOONLITE GRAHAM is a Triple A A A homebred that ran well in his debut all while getting play at 2-1. He gets an extra half furlong to work with today and is more likely than not to improve second time racing. A better break would help also (broke last in debut). BOLD COWBOY is knocking on the door and now goes third off the layoff. Class drop is marginal due to state-bred versus open but this gelding has speed and draws outside all for a rock solid barn. LOTSA LOOT is the inside speed. This horse drew the rail in his second start and it wasn’t a problem so maybe that bodes well today. Added half furlong helps theft chances.

THIRD RACE

SIX NINETY ONE continues to enjoy good health and that didn’t change with the barn switch. Versatile style is a plus but we think this guy guns from the rail if able to break well. Recent work is noted as is 19% with repeating winners for this barn. SON OF ELEANOR might be the value. He has won 20 times while hitting the exacta in half of his local starts. More of a stalker in this spot but that is fine. SORRISO just won wire to wire but we thought there was a lot of pace in that race so hats off to connections. What we didn’t expect was this guy to be sent off at 8/5. The Metz barn is 11% with horses that won their last race. A new jock is named as veteran rider and all around good guy Scott Stevens was injured last week and is now retired. Let’s all wish him godspeed in his recovery.

FOURTH RACE

CARRIE’S SUCCESS just won nicely for Evans and did so as the favorite. So what is going to change in this spot? Hot jock stays put and barn finds a logical spot all for a runner that loves this distance and goes second time this dirt. HIT IT TWICE was feeling great until trying the turf and two turns in her most recent. Hey, she beat three home and did so with marginal grass breeding. This spot makes perfect sense but race flow is average at best. Insist on a good price...9/2, right? JUST CLASSY is in good form and is used to switching barns. Team Mathis is 0 for 12 off the claim but that sample size is small. Kate Fales gets a leg up and she is 33% when riding for this barn. SHEZA DANDY R F exits a key race where 2 of 4 returned to win with figs of 64 and 77.

FIFTH RACE

MAXX EFFORT never fired last out and now hasn’t won since 2019. Now he drops to the bottom. Bleak? Not so fast. He is only a 6YO and puts three races together for the first time since April of 2019. Was that effort two back all that bad? Stakes foes simply too much last out but we can’t blame connections for taking a shot as that race wasn’t very good. Connections name a little used jockey to help muddle the waters but the bottom line is that this gelding is just better than these. AWESOME IMAGE has won half of his local races. Class drop coincides with third off the layoff. This gelding should be content to chase an average pace. SOLID GOLD BAR didn’t break well in his last two while efforts 3, 4, and 5 back all fit. We will give him one more shot but if we don’t see a better try then will wait for a circuit switch.