ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 7, DISAPPEARING ACT

FIRST RACE

Runner-up last out, more than three lengths clear of third, CLEARLY GONE is the one to beat in this $25k claiming turf mile for fillies and mares. Her numbers have improved since trainer Peter Miller claimed her last summer, she is effective in slowpace races such as this likely scenario. It rained this week, CLEARLY GONE has run well on turf with “give.” SUGARY trounced similar by more than five last out. The veteran mare does not always run two alike, but when she fires, she is tough at this level. She won the last two times she was ridden by Kent Desormeaux. QUINNIE, fifth in the race the top choice exits, would benefit from a tepid pace. This race might unfold accordingly, and she will be forwardly placed. WIND TARTARE needed her comeback a month ago. She can improve at a price, second start back.

SECOND RACE

Unraced since June, DR. HOFFMAN runs well fresh and returns in a maiden-20 against a field of career maidens. Either of his starts last spring, runner-up at this level and fourth in a productive maiden-40 (three next-out winners) would be fast enough. TWIRLING DERBY is a 12-start maiden with in-themoney finishes four of his last five and speed figures that suggest he should be second choice in the betting. He was foiled by his trip last out, fifth in a similar maiden-20 route after being caught four-wide throughout. TIGER’S SONG, runner-up four of his last five, has more speed than the top two. A nine-start maiden, TIGER’S SONG has a chance to steal it depending on how much speed LORD VADER produces. The latter is a Northern California-based gelding who has lost several times at lower levels. But he has some speed, which is an attribute for any maiden-claiming runner at any distance.

THIRD RACE

ON MARS often finds trouble; her past-performances routinely include the words stumbled, shuffled, checked, steadied and bobbled. Nonetheless, she won three of her last six, and finished second last out in a highly rated turf mile similar to this despite stumbling at the start and her rider losing his stick at the head of the lane. The deep-closing Cal-bred meets a field with speed to flatter her closing rally. IPPODAMIA’S GIRL, stakes winner early in her career and graded stakesplaced in 2019, returns from a 16-month layoff for her fourth trainer. She is now trained by Richard Baltas, whose comebackers generally are ready to fire. The mare’s form two years ago is fast enough for this field. LAURA’S LIGHT, multiple graded winner last year against 3yo fillies, makes her first start since summer. A five-time winner from eight starts, she faces multiple challenges that include facing older for the first time in a field with at least three other front-runners. NEIGE BLANCHE also faces older for the first time. She ran in three successive G1 races for 3yo fillies last year. Her closing style suits the race shape. SHE’S OUR CHARM, MISS BIGLY and TRICKLE IN all have speed.

FOURTH RACE

First-timer MISSY P., full sib to G1-winning millionaire female sprinter Mia Mischief, debuts as the likely favorite in this five and a half-furlong maiden sprint. She looked good (on video) working in company with stakes winner Astute on Feb. 28; she blew out three furlongs Monday morning. Drawn outside, apparently quick based on works, she can fire first out at a short price. REEM dueled and cracked in her comeback last month. That was her first start in 11 months, at six furlongs. Now she shortens to five and a half, with a race under her belt and a main rival who has never started. Based on her maiden-race form last year when she chased subsequent graded-winning stablemates Gamine and Merneith, REEM fits with this bunch. MONGOLIAN PANTHER is a 5yo first-time starter making her career debut with fast works; RATTRAPANTE showed brief speed and faded in her debut; she might improve second time out.

FIFTH RACE

Improving each start and close third last out at this Cal-bred N1X level going a mile and oneeighth, BURNIN TURF shortens to a mile on turf as the logical choice. He fired all four starts, in the money each time, with speed figures that steadily

improve. With a pace-pressing trip and shorter distance, he should be tough. Turf-route favorites trained by Dan Blacker have been reliable the past four years: 11-for-23 (48 percent). GEORGE

HERMAN RUTH returns from a one-year layoff as a first-time gelding. Maiden winner here last February, his work pattern suggests he is fit to run a mile first start back. TIZHOTNDUSTY ranks as one of the fastest in the field on figures, but his best races have been on the main track. He gets in light with a seven-pound apprentice allowance, and will influence the pace scenario. KAKISTOCRACY probably benefits by this shorter distance, while the third-place finish two back by ONE FAST BRO puts him in the hunt.

First start in four months with a history of firing fresh, MISS ALEGRIA is the one to beat dropping to $35k claiming N3L after allowance fillies were too tough last out. She won a starter allowance on this track last fall in relatively fast time, certainly fast enough to win this. The inside post is not great for her, although the rail has produced a higher percentage (29 percent, 4-for-14) of winners this meet at seven furlongs than any post. RATHER NOSY has speed, adds blinkers, drops in class and returns to the racetrack on which she has had the most success. SAVING SOPHIE found two turns too far last time, and misfired as the favorites. She cuts back to her preferred one-turn trip and will be running late. BLAZING CHARM also goes route to sprint as a longshot candidate from off the pace.

SEVENTH RACE

DISAPPEARING ACT looks tough in this mile-and-aquarter maiden turf race. Her runner-up comeback was solid at a mile and one-eighth; she hit the front too soon and got collared in a career-best effort. The win was validated by subsequent maiden-50 wins of two who finished far behind her (Lookin So Lucky, Shes’a Perfectlady). Trainer Richard Baltas won with seven of his last 15 starters (six wins Santa Anita, one Oaklawn Park). WITCH MOON ran better than the line looks in her local debut. She hit heavy traffic and had to wait behind runners at the three-eighths, lost ground rallying wide into the lane, and finished a creditable fourth. She loses Flavien Prat to the top choice, but picks up the meet’s second-leading rider Juan Hernandez. MIDNIGHT DIVA, a lightly raced 3yo facing MSW older, has improved each successive start. Her most recent, fourth at a mile and one eighth, was her best yet. LADY CROCKER probably needed her last, fifth while running for the first time since June. Sired by Curlin and produced by multiple graded winner Foxysox (including G2 mile and one quarter), ‘CROCKER should move improve second start back.

EIGHTH RACE

CANADIAN PRIDE is back doing what he does best, which is sprint. He faced good company both recent route races including a fourth-place finish last out. The 1-2-3 finishers all won since. Previously, ‘PRIDE finished second behind subsequent graded winner Kiss Today Goodbye. The point is, ‘PRIDE ran well against top rivals. But his best race was his only sprint at Santa Anita, a 95-Beyer maiden win in autumn. His recent five-furlong work was a bullet 59 seconds, he looks formidable even from post 2. COLT FICTION looms the upset candidate, second start back. He finished last his most recent start, but that was turf. He returns to dirt, his 92-Beyer Cal-bred allowance win in fall at Del Mar compares favorably to the top choice. ADARE might want farther than six furlongs, but he has sprinted with success. First start since late November, working well, expected him to rally late. SINGLE ME OUT also will roll late. HOWBEIT might be ranked too low by this handicapper. Claimed for $32k last out, his 88 Beyer is the highest last-out local figure. 285 West Huntington Drive Arcadia, CA 91066 (626) 574-7223

Main track: One mile, oval.

Distance from last turn to finish line: 990 feet.

Turf course: About Seven Furlongs

TAKEOUT INFORMATION

■ WPS: 15.43%

■ Two-horse exotic wagering: 22.68%

■ Trifecta, Superfecta, Super Hi 5, Pick 3, Pick 4, Pick 6: 23.68%

■ Early pick 5: 14%

■ Late pick 5: 23.68%

■ Daily Double: 20%

NOTE: A horse which wins a non-winners of $3,000 other than maiden or claiming, or two races, for Calbreds, shall remain eligible for that comparable open allowance race, provided that horse did not win a race other than claiming following that Cal-Bred win. Once a horse has won the two first condition allowance races (Cal-Bred and open), then the Cal Bred win will be disregarded in future allowance races for eligibility purposes only.