Irish O’Brien odds may lead to Sadie Bluegrass

“Never bet against a legitimate favorite,” a wagering guru warned, and the advice fell short. Betting against a legit favorite is not truly a “betagainst.”

Legit favorites have clear attributes. There is no debate. The catch is maybe the odds are askew. If so, it can make sense to bet another horse. Not to go “against” the favorite, but rather bet “on” a higher-odds alternative.

Some favorites are legit, others not so much. Then there are favorites that are uncertain, in races such as the

$100,000 Irish O’Brien Stakes on Sunday at Santa Anita.

Leggs Galore and Bella Vita might be best, but their reliability at a short price is questionable.

Leggs Galore has won four straight turf sprints, including a recent romp against California-bred stakes fillies and mares similar to those she meets Sunday. Her 88 Beyer Speed Figure was a career top, and tops the field. High figures generally equate to low odds.

But when Leggs Galore wired the field last out, she did it setting an inordinately slow first quarter for six furlongs on turf – 22.84 seconds. Circumstances were favorable. Leggs Galore took advantage and won clear with a big number.

Conversely, in three previous faster-pace races, her top fig was 80. Leggs Galore ran fast last out. But the easy pace and high fig may or may not apply in the quicker-tempo Irish O’Brien. Perhaps it won’t matter. From the far outside, she might dictate her own pace.

Bella Vita romped against California-bred stakes fillies and mares last out, albeit on dirt. She has gas, but she has never run particularly fast. Her top Beyer is 81.

Assuming that Leggs Galore does not get another soft trip, and that Bella Vita is not fast enough to warrant backing at low odds, the play is Sadie Bluegrass.

Sadie Bluegrass has won 7 of 11, and earned an 83 Beyer finishing second in a N2X allowance turf sprint at Santa Anita two starts back. A repeat of that effort would make her competitive in a California-bred stakes race. Furthermore, she runs well in faster-pace races.

Sunday at Santa Anita, Sadie Bluegrass seeks her first stakes win. If she starts at 4-1 or higher, this handicapper will back her to win the Irish O’Brien.

Handicapping angles

Handicapping angles are a waste of time. Most of them, anyway. Finding winners requires more than one clue. It demands consideration of multiple factors, including condition, class, speed, and pace.

But there are exceptions, and one creditable angle pops up often. A colleague dubbed it the “light-bulb” angle. It occurs when a longtime maiden-claimer finally jumps up and wins – the light bulb went on.

The angle applies to sprints at the lowest claiming level for winners. This winter at Santa Anita, the lowest level is $12,500-16,000 claiming nonwinners of two races lifetime. At Laurel, the bottom for winners is $5,000 claiming, nonwinners two lifetime.

Basement-level N2L claiming sprints tend to be populated by horses stuck at the level. Time and again, they fall short behind horses running at the level for the first time.

Droppers hold the edge, but their odds tend to be depressed. Another type of first-at-thelevel runner often slips through – the light-bulb runner, off a maiden-claiming win.

An example occurred March 5 at Santa Anita, in race 1. It was a bottom-level N2L claiming sprint for fillies and mares. Every runner except one had previously lost at the level. The exception was It’s a Riddle, entering off a maiden-claiming win in her 14th start. The light bulb stayed on. It’s a Riddle won again at $18.40.

An example presents itself Sunday at Laurel, in race 5. It is a $5,000 claiming sprint, N2L. Every entrant except Pardon the Pun already has lost at the level. Pardon the Pun finally broke through last time in his 13th start. The light bulb went on.

The angle is simple. At the lowest N2L claiming level, toss every horse that has lost even once at the level. Next, identify those running at the level for the first time – droppers and last-out maidenclaiming winners. Once in a while, one can land on an 8-1 winner like It’s a Riddle at Santa Anita. And maybe, Pardon the Pun at Laurel.

Red-board review

Just one of the two March 7 selections in this column fired, neither won. In race 9 at Aqueduct, Triple Americano finished fourth at 2.95-1. The winner, named Winners Laugh, was a first-time starter labeled “interesting.” He paid $8.40.

In race 4 at Santa Anita, the Grade 3 Santa Ysabel, Moraz put away the favorite and was on her way to victory. Perhaps jockey Umberto Rispoli thought he had it, because he stopped pumping in deep stretch in order to look over his right shoulder. He got nailed. Moraz might have lost anyway, but who knows? Bottom line: 0 for 2 last week.