ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 2, MEETMEINCALI

FIRST RACE

REPO ROCKS is finally getting the class drop he clearly needs and cutting back to six furlongs is another likely benefit to him based on his efforts up to this point, as he has yet to find a strong finish in his races going seven and beyond; Mott a solid 8 for his last 30 going MSW to maiden claiming in dirt sprints (30%, $3.66 ROI). HIGH PRESS debuted sprinting on dirt vs. a better field at Keeneland last October and traveled well in that race for about a half-mile while down on the rail, before coming up empty in the stretch; back to dirt on the drop off the layoff as he switches to a dangerous trainer, and he will add Lasix for this. AMERICAN GENTLEMAN dropped to this level last time while switching from turf to dirt and cutting back in distance, and he had a clear lead in the stretch before failing to contain a longshot winner at the end; tries again.

SECOND RACE

MEETMEINCALI still looked a bit green when switched to dirt for the first time last December, but he powered to the lead around the turn and was an easy winner at the end once getting straightened out; caught a wet track for his NY debut and was climbing early while over behind horses, then weakened late after getting a look up the rail in the stretch; picks up Carmouche and can improve back over a fast track. RESPECT FOR ALL didn’t defeat a strong field first time out, but he won that race easily over a difficult distance and he came right back with an even better performance last time while only third-best at the end; claimed again and cutting back for this. TEXAS BASIN ran better than it looks on turf first time out, then got rained off and rallied gamely along the rail from last to just get up to break his maiden; cuts back for his return to NY and will have Lasix for the first time in this spot.

THIRD RACE

WAILIN JOSIE isn’t a winning-type but she has been racing in the best form of her career recently, and she came through with another solid effort for second last time behind heavily-favored Eloquent Speaker; competitive right back if she can keep it going in this spot. CHEATHAM HILL’s most recent victory came when dropped sharply in class in her final start for Servis at the end of 2019; has been keeping better company to no avail recently and she was a non-factor 4th last time while approaching her top figure. SHESASUPERFREAK used her speed and settled for third behind the top one last time while back from a short layoff; will try to wire again as she looks for her first win since scoring first time out at Saratoga way back in 2018.

FOURTH RACE

HOMETOWN has a long layoff to deal with in this spot but he ran well in both starts last year, including that near-miss going longer at Saratoga with a field-best 84 Beyer; half-brother to two graded stakes winners doesn’t land in a strong field for his return. HAPPY MEDIUM a firster with pedigree - dam has dropped five winners so far, including stakes winner Dig Deep, and is from the family of Test and Ballerina winner Chaposa Springs; appears to be training forwardly into this first start. RISK PROFILE steadily improved through his first four starts last year, while hitting the board three times, and he landed in some tough spots prior to the layoff vs. the likes of The Sound and Malibu Star; cuts back with blinkers on for his return.

FIFTH RACE

AJAAWEED is obviously hard to trust following a non-effort off the layoff at Gulfstream last time, and it’s not like he even did much running in his lone start at three while finishing a distant third in the Sam Davis; did show some real potential prior to those two races and willing to give him one more chance to step forward if he is let go at anything like his early odds. BOLD AGENDA a stablemate of the top one with more to hold onto after only two starts, the most recent of which was a workmanlike maiden score with a 90 Beyer;

bred to stretch out and he also ran pretty well first time out when giving away early position to wind up last behind a moderate pace. MYSTIC NIGHT improved in his 4yo debut last time to win convincingly after stumbling at the start; didn’t beat a very compelling field that day but it was another step in the right direction and he is bred to handle the distance.

SIXTH RACE

MUCH TROUBLE missed a lot of time after being claimed by Maker two summers ago and he has been protected since his return while running well in all three starts; good try last time when turning away the odds-on favorite on the pace and only getting closed down late. MISTER BOBBY doesn’t win often - in fact, he has never finished first in a race - but he is consistent and has been competitive over a long series of races at this level; tried gamely once again in his 2021 debut but was only second-best at the end. TONKA FLOWER a new face bringing speed from the rail into this spot, and the inside has been an advantage over this track recently; has improved since being claimed by Ness and shows up here with two of the top dirt figures in this field.

SEVENTH RACE

DANEBURY has a lot of seconds and thirds on his card but he also has speed and is stretching back out for this after sprinting off the layoff (with a bar show on) and racing on evenly after a bump at the start; contends with his best effort in a wideopen race, though he was listed as a vet scratch last month. DADDY KNOWS dopped sharply off the long layoff late last year and was claimed, and he has quickly started to improve since then for Rudy with two wins and a couple of solid thirds with excuses; was getting out while dueling on the lead last time, leaving the gold rail open for the in-form winner. WUDDA U THINK NOW a lightly-raced stablemate of DADDY KNOWS exiting a no-chance run last time behind another stablemate in Yankee Division, who controlled on a strong rail last time en route to an inflated 99 Beyer; has upside to go along with some speed.

EIGHTH RACE

EAGLE ORB has run pretty well going longer vs. open rivals in his last two starts, ultimately proving to be no match for those better horses over distances he really doesn’t seem to want; last sprinted in the Notebook, where he won easily with a new top figure, and his main competition here appears to be coming from recent maiden winners. EXCELLENT TIMING ran well first time out after rushing up to the lead following a lackluster start, and he took a nice step forward to bury weak maidens last time on the lead; Brown has excellent numbers with horses like this from a limited sample; first after trainer switch, dirt, sprint: 7 for his last 16, 44%, $3.39 ROI. PERFECT MUNNINGS won each of his first two career starts - one on turf with a good trip and then the Rego Park with an 81 Beyer; cuts back after getting dusted by the talented Nicky the Vest in the Gander last time.

NINTH RACE

BASTET ran well when switched to dirt at this level last December while bumping several times with the eventual winner in the stretch and just coming up short, then lost his rider as a heavy favorite in his next start; was against the track all the way last time as repeat winner Did I Stutter got the aggressive ride clearing to the lead and the strong rail. LIGHTFOOT MISS also last ran on President’s Day, which was a strong rail day, and she took a threeto-four wide trip around the track that day to no avail; cuts back. ODEMGOLDENSLIPPERS a firster in a relatively weak field; dam broke her maiden on dirt before going on to win four more races on the grass and she had dropped several multiple winners already.