ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 5, SLIPPIN JIMMY

FIRST RACE

A 10-race Sunday card to end another 5-day week will start promptly at 1:10p ET and with a forecast of sunshine and a high of 80; the Rainbow 6 (races 5-10) is projected to offer a guaranteed pool approaching $500k, assuming the jackpot wasn’t emptied Friday or Saturday by a solo winning ticket. Giving WORK ETHIC a big chance to improve substantially over his off-the-board finishes vs. $50k mdn.-claimers when loading-n-going from his open-air outside box in the opener; addition of blinkers and Saez can’t hurt. LOYAL LOUIE has been 3rd or 4th in more than half his starts, a level of respectability that most of these have yet to attain; part of the picture you’d think. AWESOME FAMILY, like the top pick, showed speed at a higher level and could hang around longer this time.

SECOND RACE

Laughably lopsided amount of early speed in this second half of the early double should have bettors searching for something capable of rallying from off a torrid pace, and maybe CAPTURE THE GENIE fits that bill, assuming she was just too sharp off the lengthy layoff last time; gray gal sheds the blinkers when hopefully reverting to the tactics she used in breaking her maiden here way back when. CAFFEINE RUSH enters off backto-back runner-up finishes as a pace-presser in slightly longer heats; ought to menace once again with a similar strategy. PRINCESS CORO raced sporadically to end ‘20 while compiling competitive Beyers for this level; question of fitness and a willingness to rate when fresh.

THIRD RACE

Hardly ever a good idea to back an 0-for-16 maiden, regardless of circumstances, but we’ll make an exception here by defaulting to WATER WIZARD, for lack of more attractive options in this low-level mdn.-claiming mile; outer box can afford her and Junior the right kind of stalking trip. SCIENCE is an obvious wild card, having been away from more than 2 and a half years, wow; Calder drills say she might be OK in this weak spot. FLAT OUT COOL figures to come out firing when fresh.

FOURTH RACE

That was a solid runner-up effort from DREAMING THOUSAND when he was getting first Lasix in making his grass debut in that Feb. 10 race at this same $16k level, one to set him up for an overdue victory; just doesn’t seem to face much. UNLONELY drops a needed notch for Saffie; worth noting the best of his 4 priors came over grass. CHEVAL DORE showed speed going longer; outer box helps with a different kind of trip on this turnback.

FIFTH RACE

Two-back rallying score when clearing an N2L condition points out SLIPPIN JIMMY as he returns to sprinting after being overmatched in a mile starter; outer post should give Berrios leeway in making a late move; call him the day’s best for the underrated Nagle barn. Just to his outside, MACHO BLUE comes a major speed threat, even out of state-bred races; Beyers say he’ll definitely match up well here. FIG JELLY has somehow avoided the winner’s circle for quite some time now but tends to pay his way.

SIXTH RACE

Going to make the educated guess that ZURI will attract strong tote play not only because of her $1 million sale price and her strong and steady Payson work slate, but also because the alternatives in this MSW mile for 3yo fillies don’t look all that great; they don’t get much better than the Godolphin and Mott brands; right outta the box. VIVA LA RED might be best among those who’ve already started; exits a fairly strong two-turn race. ICED LATTE was pounded down to 2-1 favoritism

when unveiled last month by the TAP juggernaut; surely she’s better than that.

SEVENTH RACE

Stats sometimes don’t tell the whole story of a trainer’s capabilities, which is why SAFE CONDUCT is worth a very long look when returning from the lengthy layoff in this 1x turf route for Phil Serpe, a 37-year veteran who’s won races in more ways than you can count; solid work slate plus Lasix and Luis make this Spa MSW winner a major threat despite the disadvantage of perhaps needing one. BUGLE OF WAR throttled Tampa maidens in a manner to suggest he’s getting very serious about all this; expecting him to trip out nicely under T-Gaff. RAISON D’AIR acquitted himself well when getting first Lasix in his first turf attempt; clearly belongs.

EIGHTH RACE

A two-back 11-1 winner in this same sort of statebred mile, DARK AGES seems a timely last-out claim for KJB, whose barn was represented by another winner here Thursday in Charge Account; this 5yo liable to sit a trip under Saez before rolling into contention. JUST LIKE MIKE also was a 2-back winner of note; loses Irad (who’s serving a suspension from March 13-19), but C-Lan ought to be able to coax an effective stalking trip from the outer box. HONOLULU EXPRESS shows up in most of the others’ running lines as a 6-1 winner of the common Feb. 18 race; let’s see that again.

NINTH RACE

Out of a 3-turn marathon, CAIRA surely will be using different tactics when trying to sneak up on OSAKA GIRL and the rest on this turn-back to a mile; 5yo mare been showing signs of life and seems a prime candidate to get her HOF conditioner off the championship-meet duck. ‘Osaka has been in a few good fights of late; set to mix it up once more for Lynch and the Amermans. UNA LUNA was terrific in downing slightly lesser types in her last; just needs to hold form.

TENTH RACE

THE ZIP FACTOR won’t be 23-1 this time after looming boldly in his last start vs. some of these same $25k mdn.-claimers in the Feb. 5 common race; like the progression this gray guy has made over the winter for Cibelli, who tends to excel with grass types such as him; stands as good a chance as any to send you home a winner. Similarly, EXPONENTIAL rallied boldly in the key 2/5 race before settling for 2nd; the way he overcame the 12-hole that day was commendable. LOVE LIFE adds Lasix and gets fitted with a first tag when making his first start for a BC Classic-winning trainer; clearly a threat.