ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 8, DENY

FIRST RACE

RAASED stretches out and tried the grass for the first time but he has license to handle this surface switch and the additional distance, as he’s kin to a couple of minor turf winners and his dam posted both of her two wins in routes, albeit on the main track; he lands in a field that features little obvious pace and he should be able to shake loose and back down the fractions under Jose Ferrer, who is sensational when it comes to rating speed horses on the turf. ASTROTURF has steady Beyers and comes off a decent effort considering it was his first start in over 10 months; should be tough here if able to run to that race in his second start back. CAVEAT EMPTOR ships over from Gulfstream and adds blinkers after showing little speed in his bow; he was moving well enough late there and he should be rolling late under jockey Hector Diaz Jr.

SECOND RACE

SUZIE’SSTEPPINOUT meets better in her first start off the claim but she figures to be well set up from the standpoint of pace, as she will be looking to make the last run and there is ample speed to her inside despite the fact this is a short field; new barn’s record with fresh faces (32%, $2.48 ROI off the claim) only adds to the appeal. CAUGHT UP IN YOU is another who stands to benefit from the expected race flow; she was overmatched in the Minaret last time and against the race flow two back but she should have no excuses here, assuming a clean trip from the rail. POSEIDON’S PASSION is the one to beat based on her best figures, and a good effort for the show in the Minaret; she does like to be close to or on the lead at this distance, though, and she could be hurt by the expected pace scenario.

THIRD RACE

MOONSHINE STEVE was off the board when last seen but that was a sharp effort, as he dueled for the lead through fast early fractions yet was game until the very late stages; now down in class, and if he can get clear and set his own fractions this time around he’s going to be tough to reel in. NIP

OF BOURBON rallied smartly for the place in his first and only start on the grass; he was off the board in his latest but that was on the dirt, and he also had little pace to chase in that try. VALUABLE PILLOW hasn’t been out since the summer but he has proven speed and he did run well off a similar break just over a year ago; may be the one to get first run on the top pick.

FOURTH RACE

CHINOMADITO was well off the early pace set by GRAN CASIQUE last time, and while he was too late he was moving well through the lane there; should get a contested pace this time around, as there does seem to be enough speed in this field to create a duel up front, and if the fractions are swift enough he may be able to get there in time. TRULY STELLAR had little chance to close in a sprint that was controlled from the start by the eventual winner but he, too, could benefit from a lively tempo; makes his third start off the layoff and he did move forward in that second start back in terms of Beyers. RATTLESNAKE RIDGE is down in price and he does have competitive back figures; has speed but will need to rate here to win this, it seems.

FIFTH RACE

LONTANI makes his first start since October but this does appear to be a good spot for his return, as his tactical speed can be put to good use and his Beyers do put him in the middle of this; working well toward this return, and trainer Jordan Blair has solid stats with horses off this type of break. INFINITE is widest but he comes out of sprints and he very much figures to be the one they have to catch for trainer Wesley Ward; barn known for winning with young sprinters but note the 22% win rate with horses stretching out to routes. AND WON has steady figures and comes off a win against $16,000 claimers, this third career victory over this course; would benefit greatly from a wild

pace up front.

SIXTH RACE

FLASH IT was well off the winner in that last run but a slow start cost him, as he had to rush to gain position after a rival took his path early; now back at 5 1/2 furlongs, and though he was off the board under these conditions two back that was a paceless race, making things tough on the closers. COMPANY STORE took advantage of a forward trip in a race light on speed to finish 2nd and post a career-best Beyer in his first start off the claim; likely to regress off that figure without another favorable set up but still capable of winning this from just off the pace. CAPTURED BY FATE is perhaps the one to catch in his local debut; he stopped despite a loose lead last time but he certainly has room to improve upon that effort in only his second start since last May.

SEVENTH RACE

NO RENOVATIONS doesn’t offer a lot of pedigree power — his dam raced only once and her two starters to date are a combined 1-for-45 — but this gelding has some decent works showing and meets an apparently average field for the class level as he makes his first career start; trainer Mike Stidham’s success with debut runners, particularly in maiden claimers (29%, $3.00 ROI) a huge plus. IS IT BY CHANCE is kin to a couple of minor winners but the dam’s lone win was on the grass; trainer Moises Yanez does some of his best work with turf runners and maiden claimers, if not firsters. POSEIDONS MYTH adds blinkers for his first start on turf; well off the board in his first start in nearly six months but perhaps an upgrade candidate given a better pace set up.

EIGHTH RACE

DENY seemed well positioned to earn his diploma in that last sprint but he leapt in the air at the start and that cost him precious position; he made a middle move to get within striking distance of the leaders but flattened out and wasn’t pushed late by jockey Jose Ferrer, and he should be expected to fare much better here if able to get away with the field. NELSON LEGEND ran a nice race in defeat despite the long layoff and the wide post last time, especially considering the fact that he ran into traffic trouble at a key point; blinkers on today. PACHI is a logical threat and the one to catch, and perhaps the one to beat, but he figures to be overbet off those last couple of figures and he did fail despite favorable set ups in those last two.

NINTH RACE

SPATIAL has been working well toward her career debut for trainer Christophe Clement, who is always tough with firsters on the grass, especially at Tampa; the dam, Lon View, won once in three starts in Ireland, and while neither of her two full siblings won on the turf the appeal lies in the connections. Along the same lines...HIGHER TRUTH debuts for trainer Chad Brown, making her a contender by default, though her dam did win three races overseas and her lone starter to date, Lady Wannabe, won three races in Europe; mustuse in multi-race exotics. BAFFLE ‘EM took a big step forward when switched to the grass last time out and the resulting Beyer makes her a threat in her local debut; trainer Brendan Walsh scored in a Maiden Special Weight turf race here back in December with Gulfstream Park West shipper Marlborough Road.