ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 2, STARSHIP CHEWBACCA

FIRST RACE

PLAY CHICKEN, the only entrant who has not run for a claim price, drops from a series of stakes to run for the $50k optional tag. He also is the field’s only two-time winner, returning to turf for the first time since his debut victory in autumn. Lasix on, easier foes, Doug O’Neill assistant trainer Leandro Mora calling the shots, logical choice to win on the drop despite recent losses by 18+ and 20+ lengths. GOLDINI did not have much behind him winning a maiden-50 turf mile, but it was only his second start and he was claimed by the meet’s leading turf stable. He earned a decent figure, 66 Beyer, albeit vs. weak opponents. Seven behind him ran back, producing only a maiden-50 second and a maiden5k third. SWIFT AS I AM stretches to a route for the first time, and tries turf. His even-paced style suggests a mile is fine; his pedigree suggests any surface is okay. SENSEMAKER is first-time route, with a route pedigree.

SECOND RACE

After a series of compromising trips from inside post positions, including several against tougher special-weight company, STARSHIP CHEWBACCA finally catches a break while returning to the Calbred maiden-50 level. He drew the outside post in this small field, his dirt figures tower over his rivals. Standout, at least on paper. FLY BUDDY FLY goes route to sprint, turf to dirt, Cal-bred MSW to Cal-bred MCL. Improvement likely on the drop, though older maiden-claiming runners from this stable tend to be undervalued. The past five years, Peter Miller is 9-for-50 with maiden-claiming runners age 4 and up, an 18 percent win rate. But a win wager on each would have generated a return of just $1 for each $2 wager. LUCKYS LAST STAND makes his second career start following a creditable third-place debut three months ago. He adds Lasix, and has speed to make the lead if wants.

THIRD RACE

CONSIDER ME GONE must improve on her debut figure (41 Beyer) to win this maiden-50 sprint, but her effort was better than the number. She showed no speed at all, picked up steam rallying on the turn, switched outside in deep stretch and finished well for second. Promising effort by a filly likely to improve with a race under her belt and move to an outside post. Due to her low fig, she could actually offer wagering value. Worth a bet at 3-1 or higher. K P KAN DO drops to maiden-claiming after two spin-around-the-track off-the-board efforts in MSW turf sprints. This group is easier, her pedigree okays the move to dirt. PURDA VITA flashed speed and faded both starts. The front end is usually a good position for a maiden-claiming sprinter. AVISSE goes route to sprint and should rally late.

FOURTH RACE

FOUND MY BALL was in tough last out finishing fourth in a Grade 2, but the 3-year-old’s runaway win two back vs. Cal-bred maidens would be tough to beat in this Cal-bred N1X. Sired by Square Eddie, the switch to turf makes sense. Also, four siblings to ‘BALL ran well on turf. THELUTEISMINE buried maiden-50s last out in his sixth career start. The slow-developing gelding ran well on turf last year, he is drawn outside where he can press or set the pace. He is trained by Peter Miller, who also entered comebacker ROCKTILLYOUDROP. The latter won his career debut in October and subsequently was purchased privately and transferred to SoCal. Despite a gap in his work pattern from Jan 9 to Feb. 17, the colt is eligible to improve off his 2yo form. He adds blinkers, gets Lasix and will be ridden by the meet’s leading jockey.

FIFTH RACE

Based on her decisive victory two back at this $12.5k claiming level and seven-furlong trip, MADAME BARBARIAN looks tough. A 13-time winner from 77 starts, the veteran mare ran okay last out against better, fourth with a rocky trip in a $25k claiming starter. She drops in class, switches to the leading rider, and enters with speed-figure superiority. The only knock is price. Her odds are likely to be low. TIZ TOFFEE dueled and faded last out for $20k, now she drops returns to the claiming level of her win September. The speed of the field, she will take them as far as she can. ETERNAL ENDEAVOUR, third as the favorite both starts this meet, figures as a contender although she

seems to have misplaced her will to win. Since fall 2019, while mostly starting in the low odds range, her 10 starts produced three seconds, three thirds, no wins.

SIXTH RACE

SADIE BLUEGRASS gets the call to upset this turf sprint stakes for Cal-bred fillies and mares. The 7-for-11 filly has speed to set or press the pace, her recent form in N2X allowance races is solid (one win, one second), and she ran well over this turf course two months ago. Come and catch her. LEGGS GALORE is likely to start favored based on her romping January win in a similar state-bred turf sprint. It was her fourth straight win since moving to turf, and from the outside post she has the option of either setting the pace or pressing while in the clear. The challenge is she got away with a soft opening quarter-mile last time, but probably will see quicker fractions here. BELLA VITA looked good winning her comeback in a Calbred stakes race on dirt, her first two career starts sprinting on the Santa Anita turf last winter were promising. SAPPHIRE KID will roll late, seeking her third straight.

SEVENTH RACE

RESPECTFULLY got into all sorts of trouble last out, yet ran well to finish a close fourth against similar. The effort stamps her as the one to beat. She did not break smoothly; she was rank and tossed her head around. Then she ran into a traffic jam after passing the half-mile pole and was forced to steady, then she re-rallied inside and missed by only three lengths. Better post this time, switch to a journeyman rider, the one to beat. ROYAL BLEND crushed maiden-40s last out, winning by more than three lengths. The race earned a low figure; runner-up Consider Me Gone will test the validity of the number when she starts as one of the favorites in the third race on this card. DANCING DANA also encountered trouble last out, runner-up on turf. She handles dirt and will be running late. OSCAR NOD is speed, adding Lasix, and will take them as far as she can under 10-pound apprentice Emily Ellingwood.

EIGHTH RACE

Turf is something new for ANNA FANTASTIC, whose dirt form stamps her the one to beat. She is the fastest in the field on numbers, with versatile speed to set or press the pace. If she transfers her main-track form to grass, she can win with an up-front trip. AWAY FROM THE SUN trounced starter allowance foes last out on synthetic, while undoubtedly flattered by the soft competition.

But her six-length romp was her second runaway win from two starts, and she showed in her debut she handles grass. Expect her to vie for favoritism with the top choice. SWEET RAFAELA is a six-time winner on dirt and synthetic, but 0-for-8 with three in-the-money-finishes on turf. SOFI’S GOLD returns from a four-month layoff; she won a maiden race on this turf course by more than three lengths last fall.