ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, EDGE OF FIRE

FIRST RACE

CADEAU DE PAIX returned from a long layoff in January vs. a field of restricted claimers that was better than what she faces here and overcame a stumbling start to win easily while matching her career-best Beyer; drops back down after facing much tougher in her two starts since then to no avail. LIFE ON THE EDGE has split her time between turf and dirt and has won twice on each surface to date; has speed cutting back off the layoff showing a blowout win and a nearmiss in her last two main track starts, AWESOME ALANA got in over her head off the claim for these connections in January, then was on the outside vs. a strong rail when dropped to this level last time; has the back races to factor strongly vs. this kind of field.

SECOND RACE

OVERDRESSED won back-to-back dirt sprints shortly after being switched to the Maker barn last year, then rallied and came up short vs. tougher when back to dirt at Oaklawn last month; good spot making her NY debut on the drop with Carmouche taking over. TAKE IT OFF contested the pace from the start and pulled clear late to break her maiden on the drop two starts back; dueled and tired vs. better in her first start vs. other winners last time. INVESTMENT GRADE dropped making her dirt debut in the mud in January and gamely prevailed as the favorite after getting to a clear early lead; lightlyraced 3yo has dangerous speed dropping for this.

THIRD RACE

TIERGAN has the best of it while stalking an easy pace along a strong rail off the Rudy claim last time and posted a big new top Beyer en route to winning that race much easier than it may appear on paper, but he also ran well two back when rallying for second behind the streaking Doubly Blessed (now 3-for-3 on dirt after returning to crush allowance rivals with a 97 Beyer in his next start); likely to be overbet but this race didn’t come up start strong for the level and he has always been pretty good while underachieving, TOO EARLY’s lone win to date came as an MTO entrant in a race rained off the grass but his last two efforts, both over this track and trip, make him the horse to beat this time; has

tactical speed in a race without a lot of pace. RIFT VALLEY has finished far behind TOO EARLY in each of his last two starts, the first of those after showing improved early speed and more recently over a wet track; has much to price but ran well in his first two starts and it’s too early to give up on him.

FOURTH RACE

ROSE E HOLIDAY debuted going this distance last month and was only second-best to class-dropping Suspended Campaign while racing away from the strong rail; blinkers on for her second start and lands in a suspect field. VENUS OYZO the lone entrant facing maiden claiming competition for the first time in this spot and she will do so on a quick turnaround after bumping into an impressive winner (95 Beyer for Aunt Kat) last weekend; 76 Beyer earned in her previous dirt start stands out in this field and she is second off the layoff here. MALIBU ANTHEM prevailed on a photo for second over WICKED HAPPY at this level two back then got outrun to the lead and never had enough as the favorite last time; has the speed to be forward from the start as she tries again.

FIFTH RACE

TRUEBELIEVE cut back off the claim two back and ran a winning race in that spot while contesting the pace for a long way and falling short at the end to the heavily-backed Macho Jack; drops back down following another good try vs. better last time and he picks up Carmouche for this, DAVID’S GEM disappointed off the layoff in January but he bounced back strongly when overlooked in his next start to dominate two-life claimers on the front; getting back to the right level once again and he has speed. PRINCIPAL DANCER has been consistent since breaking his maiden over this track last January and he finally picked up a second career win last time after keeping a solid pace for the level in range; like his tactical speed and he looks like a nice fit right back.

SIXTH RACE

EDGE OF FIRE bombed on another wet track in his 2021 debut following a short layoff (and a vet scratch in the interim) then went away for another 77 days; like him cutting back slightly or his return after showing some ability early on vs. solid competition, but would only want him over a fast track. MISTER WINSTON got the right trip into a race that got competitive early to win first time out at Gulfstream early last year, then ran an even better race when stretched out for his second start and nearly surviving a fast pace; returns from the layoff with forward to go for top connections. O’TROUBLE got bet for his Saratoga debut in his lone start as a 2yo, then took a while to break through upon his return while continuing to race at a similar performance level; caught the right kind of field when finally breaking through at a short price two back, and he took a step forward last time when rallying for second to an in-form Runningwithscissors.

SEVENTH RACE

CIVIL WAR overcame noticeably greenness to get up first time out while racing for a tag and he has been in way over his head in each of his four starts since then, three of those vs. graded stakes rivals; remains unclear just how good he is but he is finally in a realistic spot here while adding Lasix for the first time. SWINGING STICKS switched to dirt on the drop for his second start and gamely prevailed with an improved figure; has switched barns since then but he remains unexposed and may not have to improve all that much to contend right back. BLU GROTTO blew clear stretch leads in each of his first two starts vs. maiden claimers when cut back to this distance, then got to the top over a track that was favoring speed and the inside last time and clearly took advantage; has speed stepping up.

EIGHTH RACE

ERNIE BANKER has attained something of a level through his first six starts and he has held his own vs. better fields more than once along the way; finally drops in class as he returns from the layoff for a trainer enjoying a good run right now. PAPA SMOOTH is by a top first-out sire (Bustin Stones wins with 17% of his first time starters) and is a full to sixtime winner (and debut winner) Stoney Bennett (95 Beyer top), as well as four other winners from this dam; attracts Carmouche for his first start. TRUSTYOURINSTINCT has settled for second-best in each of his last three starts at Laurel, most recently with another declining figure while going to the post as the heaviest of favorites vs. only three others; putting blinkers on for his NY debut.