ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 1, CARGO

FIRST RACE

First post now 1 p.m. with the resumption of Daylight Saving Time. This Cal-bred maiden turf mile is the stronger split of race 8. CARGO should be tough as he stretches out from a promising runnerup debut sprint. The gelding is bred for two turns: sired by multiple G1 turf route winner Point of Entry, and produced by a dam whose six wins were around two turns. Furthermore, the even-paced running style CARGO employed suggests a mile is ideal. Trainer Phil D’Amato and jockey Flavien Prat teamed this year with seven favorites: five wins, two seconds. HAIL FREEDOM has a route under his belt, runner-up second out. Not sure about the quality of that race, however. Seven behind him ran back, none hit the board. But the lightly raced colt is making only his third career start. He has upside. BUKAYO improved each successive start. He ran well last out at a mile and one-eighth when he “set the pace” chasing the runaway leader and finished a creditable fourth. He might benefit by the shorter distance of this mile race. Ultimately, the top choice will be tough. Favorites this meet are 10-for-18 in MSW turf routes (all sub-categories).

SECOND RACE

IMPRESSION is the only entrant in this five-runner claiming route that ran well last out, runner-up in a highly rated race. The only horse to run back was third-place finisher Studly Perfection, who validated the race by winning his next start at Golden Gate. IMPRESSION has speed for a front-running/pacepressing trip. CONQUEST COBRA would be tough in this $12.5k claiming route based on his runner-up finish two back. But he seems headed the wrong direction. He won for $20k in September, finished third and second in $20-25k claiming-caliber races two and three back, and now drops in class off a last-place finish for $16k. On the other hand, the presence of the leading rider suggests the ninewin veteran is fine. If one bad race can be excused, he is a contender. Prat rode him to wins in 2019 and 2020. FABOZZI, stablemate of the top choice, was in tough last out. He chased back-class graded winner Marckie’s Water and faded in the lane. That was a $25k claiming route, he returns to the $12.5k claiming level at which he won in December.

THIRD RACE

Front-runner SIMMER DOWN, a filly facing colts and geldings, can win this maiden-30 route if she rations her speed more efficiently. Last out, she opened up by six setting a fast pace, tired and finished fourth. Although her route ability is uncertain, and she faces other speed, the gray front-runner nonetheless gets the call based on her most recent start and her relatively fast runner-up finish two starts back. SHORT RIB ran better than his running line or low figure suggests last out. He was caught five-wide the first turn, at least three-wide the remainder of the trip, and finished fourth. Not bad considering the ground loss. His runner-up two back compares favorably to the top choice. SKY NAVIGATOR drops in class, returns to dirt, and makes his first start since he was gelded. Improvement likely. HARD METAL is gradually improving, runner-up last out while more than four lengths in front of SHORT RIB.

FOURTH RACE

Front-runner THANKS MR. EIDSON can lead this N2X turf sprint gate to wire. He ran super last out in a stakes race when he chased/dueled with fast rival Mr. Vargas, put away that one (‘Vargas finished last), then got swallowed late to finish third. Big effort by ‘EIDSON, who drops in class and looks like the controlling speed. Six of the last 12 turf sprints at six and one-half furlongs (all rail settings) were won by the pacesetter. With the turf rails at 30 feet, two of six at this distance were won by the pacesetter, four by closers. The bottom line is ‘EIDSON could be long gone on the drop. GHOUL already won this N2X condition twice; he entered for the optional $62.5k claim tag. He finished behind the top choice two back, then ran well last out weaving through traffic to finish a close fourth. If the top choice falters, GHOUL can rally for the win. His trainer Peter Miller, 7-for-26 the past two and a half weeks, also entered COMMANDER. The latter scored a highly rated comeback win a month ago and gets an optimistic hike from $40k claiming to N2X. His sprint form is solid.

FIFTH RACE

Second-time starter JUST DISTORTED and firsttime starter STELLA NOIR top this sprint for

maiden 3yo fillies, with the slight edge to the filly with experience. JUST DISTORTED ran fairly well in her runner-up debut. She took dirt racing inside and behind, rallied steadily through the lane, and “won” the race for second though no match for the late-running winner. All in all, a promising effort by ‘DISTORTED first out. Her advantages include a race under her belt, and another half-furlong to work with. However, she faces a formidable rival in STELLA NOIR, whose five-furlong work last weekend stamps her “live” first out. She broke off behind two other workers, looped those two on the turn, ran past and cruised in a fastest-ofthe-morning 59.20 seconds. Big work by a promising unraced filly. She is the first foal from debut winner/five-time Louisiana-bred stakes winner Guadalupe High. Close call between the top pair; the first-time starter might be special. STRESSED dueled inside and just got worn down late by the top choice in an improved effort over her debut. She is quick, improving, with a chance to wire the field.

SIXTH RACE

An impressive maiden win by BIG BEAUTY stamps her top choice in this turf route for Cal-bred fillies. She made an early move on the far turn, blew past the leaders, and won comfortably. It was only her second start for trainer Cliff Sise and owner/ breeder George Krikorian. A full sibling to stakes winner Big Book, ‘BEAUTY can score right back if she continues to improve. Of course, if two-time sprinter winner DISKO FEVER carries her speed a route of ground, this race could be history. ‘FEVER wired Cal-bred maidens and starter allowance fillies, both at six furlongs. Her most recent win was outstanding considering she broke dead last, zoomed to the lead and kept running. Big win by a fast filly. The uncertainty is whether she can stretch her speed two turns. Her dam was a sprinter. Trainer Richard Baltas won at least three turf races this meet sprint to route. SUPER GAME drops from Cal-bred stakes and adding Lasix. Her most recent was her best yet, but that was two months ago.

SEVENTH RACE

CLAYTON DELANEY won this Cal-bred N1X condition last out on turf, he wheels back as the one to beat switching to dirt (surface-switchers retain allowance eligibility). Considering he won a maiden race on dirt last summer, it is not likely the surface switch will be an issue. COALINGA ROAD improved recently, since switching to dirt. He finished second at this level last out. Although it was not much of a field, he did finish eight lengths clear of third. LIGHTNING FAST is racing into peak form, this is his third start back and follows an improved third last out. HAPI HAPI can roll from behind, even with blinkers on.

EIGHTH RACE

This Cal-bred maiden turf mile is a split of race 1. CIRCLEOFCHAMPIONS ran super last out at a mile and one-eighth. He set a fast pace, opened up by five lengths, and held second. The improving colt cuts back to a mile and can win if he rations his speed and copes with sprinter STANDING O. The latter set the pace sprinting last out, held second, and might be quickest of this field. First-time gelding, in light with a seven-pound apprentice allowance, long gone? WARRENS CANDY MAN tries with blinkers off, the seven-start maiden will be running late. BIG FLINT was eased last out. His back-to-back runner-up finishes previously stamp him the logical contender from off the pace. BLUE STAR also will rally.