Sometimes a long look just leaves you blind

Horseplayers sometimes overthink, which is better than underthink. And let’s not get started on the cringeworthy notion of groupthink.

But we handicappers do overthink. It is not a crime. It’s more like an infraction. And the blunder is common, which explains why certain phrases become racing jargon.

The ever-popular “paralysis by analysis” means to analyze a race top to bottom, inside to out, start to finish, on and on and on, without reaching a conclusion.

Paralyzed.

That is virtually the same as “study long, study wrong,” which involves handicapping scrutiny to such a timeconsuming extreme that even minutiae seem important.

Things like rail setting on a turf course. Fiddlefaddle.

A bettor eyeing the Sensational Star Stakes on Sunday at Santa Anita might be tempted to overanalyze. After all, four of the seven runners in the California-bred turf sprint have a chance. Five if you count longshot Margot’s Boy, which I do.

Or maybe handicapping the race is as easy as taking a performance at face value, trusting the horse to run two alike, and knowing the effort is good enough to win the stakes.

Only one Sensational Star runner won last out. His 89 Beyer Speed Figure is the top recent turfsprint figure in the field. He is a horse-for-course, and all three of his wins were on the Santa Anita turf. Basic stuff.

Jetovator is in peak form. He dominated an allowance last month. He is drawn outside his only pace rival, Jamming Eddy. Class? Jetovator is running in his first stakes. No problem. It’s a race for statebreds, not the Breeders’ Cup. At this level, current form trumps class.

Of course, bettors may have a hard time forgetting that Jetovator once was a money-burning bust. He lost his first nine starts, seven at 3-1 odds or less. Against maidens.

It is not relevant. Jetovator has changed. He won 2 of 3 this meet, and is the “now” horse, even if the stakes race is not a walkover.

The others? Desmond Doss enters with outstanding form in dirt routes. The Sensational Star is a turf sprint.

Jamming Eddy could get a cozy inside trip if he avoids a duel with Jetovator. The veteran Brando the bartender, in the money in 12 stakes including a win, shortens to his preferred distance. Royal Trump and Prodigal Son are not good enough.

As for Margot’s Boy, he made the Daily Racing Form Horses to Watch list following his fourthplace finish on Feb. 28: “Compromised by startand-stop tactics in California-bred route stakes, gelding gunned early, dueled between horses, then rated behind duel, re-rallied, lost punch. Form better than it looks.”

Margot’s Boy might not win the Sensational Star, but he could hit the board at a price. That would inflate the exacta or trifecta. As for the likely winner, no need to overthink. Jetovator would be a low-odds overlay at 5-2 or higher.

Sky Confidential worth considering

Sky Confidential, a longshot in race 9 on Sunday at Santa Anita, also made the DRF Horses to Watch list; his recent sixth merits viewing in Formulator (Santa Anita, Feb. 14, race 5). HTW comment: “Better-than-looked effort by longshot in N3L claiming turf mile. Rail trip just off fast pace, bogged behind runners in final quarter-mile, galloped out in front of the field.”

Sky Confidential might not defeat Honos Man, fourth in the same Feb. 14 race with a less-thanideal trip. But at the odds discrepancy, one could do worse than bet Sky Confidential straight at 15-1 or higher and include him in exotics under top choice Honos Man.

Red-board review

I screwed up last week outlining a handicapping angle. The example was a Laurel sprint, $5,000 claiming nonwinners of two, to illustrate the “light-bulb” angle – a last-out maiden-claiming winner facing bottom-level N2L sprinters.

The angle occasionally offers value. The illustration focused on Pardon the Pun in race 5 on March 14 at Laurel. Pardon the Pun set the pace, backed up, and finished seventh. No big deal. The screwup is he started at odds-on. Did not anticipate that short price but should have. The field was dreadful.

It can be acceptable to support a legit contender at low odds, like Miss Bigly in race 4 on Sunday at Santa Anita. But slow horses at short prices are best avoided. While the light-bulb angle has merit, it was a gaffe to endorse Pardon the Pun, a sorry underlay at 4-5.

The second selection last Sunday was less embarrassing. I can live with taking a shot on Sadie Bluegrass at 5.80-1 in the Irish O’Brien Stakes at Santa Anita. Sadie Bluegrass was no match for two rivals who faced questions regarding pace and speed. Leggs Galore and Bella Vita ran away from Sadie Bluegrass, who was merely third best.

To paraphrase one veteran California handicapper: “Sure, I lost. At least I lost with value.” Bottom line last week: 0 for 2.