ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 4, MISS BIGLY

FIRST RACE

LIAR LIAR had a nightmare trip last out, third by only three lengths. His traffic trouble was severe, into the far turn and through the stretch. He returns at the same level, over the same turf course, at the same distance. But one key change is first-time Flavien Prat. RAGER is uncertain around two turns, but his turf sprint form is solid. His recent sprints, second and third, were his first since last spring. He might be ready to stretch out. He has been chasing fast sprint fractions, which gives him the option of being a pace factor while stretching to a mile. HOOP DREAM, runner-up in the race four of these exit, looms a legit threat from off the pace. With the exception of a race in which he stumbled, he finished in the money every route. CHASING FAME stretches out from a front-running maiden-50 sprint win. Expect he will use his speed. WITCH’S VOW also likes to run up front. CONSTITUTIONAFFAIR might be ranked too low by this handicapper. He returns from a long layoff for a top stable, and might be a better horse at age 4.

SECOND RACE

BANDEENA and OUR BONNIE LASS are tough to separate in this maiden-20 route duel between apprentice riders Emily Ellingwood (Bandeena) and Jessica Pyfer. They finished two-three last time, the prediction is for a similar result. BANDENNA is improving every start, she did show some finish last out in her first route, three-quarters in front of OUR BONNIE LASS, who is a threat on the front end. ‘LASS squandered the lead three straight. She led at the eighth pole every time. Someday, she will keep running or the ones behind her will spin their wheels. The speed of ‘LASS makes her a contender. She carries eight pounds more than the top choice (119-111). WATCH THE FED stretches out for her third start. She was semi-competitive her first two starts in low-caliber maiden-claiming sprints. That makes her a threat on the stretchout. A mile should be okay, she has not yet lost at the level (maiden-20 route). New face to the race. PARTYATTHECAPITAL also enters with the twosprints-and-a-route pattern.

THIRD RACE

With two sprints under her belt, in the money both, BIG CLARE is ready to stretch out and win this turf mile for Cal-bred maidens. She is bred to run long, the running style she employed in both sprints suggests a mile is perfect. A ALOT OF MAGIC merely ran around the course sprinting in her debut, finishing five lengths behind the top choice. ‘MAGIC can improve at this longer trip. SUNSHINE BABE has something the top pair lack. That is, experience around two turns. ‘BABE finished second last out in a maiden turf mile similar to this, and will be rolling late. MENSA ON TAP will pick the up the pieces at a price.

FOURTH RACE

MISS BIGLY towers head and shoulders over her rivals in this this $32k claiming starter allowance. She is racing into condition in California, third in a dirt sprint followed by a spin-around-the-course tune-up nine days ago in a turf route. Both races were against better, her best races are long on dirt. She is quick enough to establish a forward position, and looks like the most probable winner on the card for a hot stable. PAIGE RUNNER won her last four vs. claiming-caliber rivals, her only misfire was when she was outclassed two back in a N1X. ‘RUNNER won a $12.5k claiming starter last month by more than 13 lengths. While the favorite will be tough, ‘RUNNER can provide a worthy challenge. MIDNIGHT JAMBOREE attempts a giant class hike after winning a N2L claiming route. TIP TOP GAL stretches out with speed to make the lead if she wants.

FIFTH RACE

EQUILOVE makes her U.S. debut as a potential standout based on her European form last year and trainer Phil D’Amato’s success with similar maiden imports. In her final two starts in Ireland, EQUILOVE finished second and third vs. winners in big fields open to both genders. She has worked

very well for her local debut, D’Amato won with his last four maidens making their U.S. debut (Cathkin Peak, Majestic Steps, Earls Rock, Coulthard).

LADY MACARENA finished an okay second in her debut; maidens from this stable tend to race into condition rather than fire first out. The eighth- and ninth-place finishers behind her won next out.

BOWL OF CHERRIES, fifth both starts, returns to turf. She finished only a length and a half behind LADY MACARENA two back. Ultimately, the top choice looks tough to beat.

SIXTH RACE

This N2L claiming route is a scramble. GOTTA BE LUCKY ran well enough finishing second last out in her first against winners to merit top billing. She had an odd trip. Forwardly placed, she may have been uncomfortable inside and behind runners. She dropped out and lost position nearing the three-eighths pole, then produced a modest re-rally for second. Decent current form, top dirt figures in the field, perhaps she can wear them down. Perhaps. LUCKY LONG LEGS drops dramatically in class and stretches out for the first time on dirt. She will be forwardly placed coming out of a sprint, and benefits by a tepid pace scenario. Not much speed in this field. SECRET SQUARE drops in class, returns to dirt and stretches out for the first time on dirt. INFO’S TREASURE, in the money three of five at this class level, will clunk along late.

SEVENTH RACE

The sharp JETOVATOR moves into a Cal-bred stakes after a dominating victory in an open N1X. Two-for-two in turf sprints this winter, drawn outside his only pace rival who breaks from the rail, JETOVATOR figures for a front-running or pace-pressing trip in the clear. Come catch him. DESMOND DOSS gave five-time stakes winner Fashionably Fast all he could handle last out in a dirt-route stakes, missing by a head after a slow start. Excellent effort by ‘DOSS. The question is whether he can be as effective in a sprint as routes. He handles dirt and turf, it is just a matter of winning from off the pace in a sprint that might not unfold at a particularly fast clip. JAMMING EDDY is the aforementioned pace rival for the top choice. Claimed from a runner-up finish last out for $40k, he should be forwardly placed saving ground. MARGOT’S BOY looms the knockout. His fourth last out was better than it looks. He was compromised by indecisive tactics when he was gunned early, took back, then tried to re-rally. Confusing trip. Runner-up by a head last summer in the G2 Del Mar Derby, MARGOT’S BOY has yet to regain top form this year at age 4, but he might be in better form than it appears. Off-the-pace upset candidate.

EIGHTH RACE

BETITO ran well both starts this meet vs. similar maiden-20 sprinters, and looks set to graduate in his third start of the meet. His runner-up finish last out looked better visually than the six-length margin of defeat looks on paper. He has speed for another pressing/chasing trip, and he will get the jump on his two main rivals. Those include comebacker SALAH, who entered “not to be claimed.” That typically signals optimism, SALAH ran races in late 2019 and early 2020 fast enough for this level. He is now a 5yo maiden, with 13 starts, but on raw ability is fast enough to win a bottom-level maiden-claiming race. EL CENTENARIO will be running late in his first start on dirt after seven okay tries on synthetic. Trainer Jonathan Wong and jockey Flavien Prat have teamed 10 times. All 10 runners finished in the money, three winners. STIR THE POT is the speed. He will take them as far as he can.

NINTH RACE

HONOS MAN did not have a great trip last out at one mile, which is shorter than he prefers. He got bogged behind runners on the far turn, and finished evenly for fourth. Now he stretches to the mile-and-one-eighth distance of his mostrecent victory, and can wear them down for the win. SEEKING REFUGE finished second in the same race, while in front of five runners that entered this race including the top choice. ‘REFUGE was re-claimed off the effort by Vladimir Cerin, who trained him for his mile-and-one-eighth N2L win in autumn. SKY CONFIDENTIAL is live at a price. His sixth last out was better than it looks. He was stuck behind runners for most of the final five-sixteenths, never really had a clear path, but galloped out in front of the field. He was 76-1 in that race, and therefore should be a big number here as well. Bombs away? SLY will press the pace likely to be set by DR. TROUTMAN.