ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 10, QUALITY LINE

FIRST RACE

Go fast and win for LOVE SOLUTION who draws the rail going a flat mile and with speed in tow. Half of her lifetime wins have come on this dirt but in only four starts compared to twenty-one elsewhere. Sprint to route will help sharpen her zip and the front end is hers with a decent break and aggressive ride. ARIES scratched out of a race on Thursday to run here and that isn’t our favorite. She will still go favored with Evans in her corner. This barn has had some low priced losers of late. MCGLORIOUS has won two of five at this distance. Possible excuses for last three are sprint, off turf, and turf. With that said, her most recent was a tad better. No doubt that the dirt is her best surface.

SECOND RACE

JANET’S MAE has speed on the stretch-out and draws the rail all going a flat mile. She likes this dirt where she has been part of the exacta in 7 of 10 starts. What we like best is the quick turnaround as team Silva is 28% when doing so. PRINCESS OF CAIRO has good upside, draws inside, gets back to the dirt, and is a stakes winner in Canada. Form cycle hints at better and race flow is more than fair. SHANGHAI KEELY goes for Evans and escapes stakes foes. First call rider gets a leg up.

THIRD RACE

FLAME AND CITRON found the pace versus first time winners a bit much and simply spit the bit. Today’s pace is better. Let’s see if front bandages added previously are no more. FIGHT ME broke his maiden at this distance only two back. He drew outside that day and again today. New barn is noted. SALTIE FIRE is in good form and is a beaten favorite last out. Weight break going super short is a plus as is versatile style.

FOURTH RACE

FABULOUS FLOYD never got a breather but won his debut nonetheless. Then he tried two turns, the turf, and winners all for the first time previously. He never got a breather (again) and was only one length back at the 1/8th pole before tiring late. Both career efforts are very nice. He owns a recent work and finds a better spot today all while returning to a shortened dirt sprint. L D’ RADO GOLDRUSH just hated Emerald. He gets off the rail today and is 10-1 on the morning line. This gelding did get a 58 Beyer last year as a 3YO. PERFECT FANNY has solid figs of late, gets in light, and drops in class. He proved two back that he can pass runners.

FIFTH RACE

LAYLA’S WILDCAT has some speed in a race with little speed. Advantage this mare who broke dead last in her most recent but still managed to beat five home. Now she goes third off the layoff all while cutting back a half furlong. Those local tries 5, 6, and 7 back all fit here. Best of all she puts three races together an indication that she is feeling good. PLEASE ZIP IT has some speed but does draw outside our top pick. Her most recent was poor but it was her first here and she broke second to last. MISS VANJIE NATION comes in fresh and tries easier. Works are well spaced but this barn is still 0 for 10 off a long layoff.

SIXTH RACE

GRAY ADMIRAL tried tougher last out but still managed a solid third while sent off at almost 4-1. He has improved his Beyer in both starts for his new barn (Evans). Now connections drop in class all while easily in the black if they lose this gelding. Yes, there is other speed in this race but this guy can stalk if needed. Your very logical favorite and for good reason. DIVINE FAVOR ran better two and four back and that bodes well for today. This gelding draws inside and gets good race flow. The turf to dirt move is 40% for trainer Casey Lambert.

PURELY POLITICAL is a grinder that has hit the board going a flat mile in all 10 starts. New barn is 43% off the claim. This gelding wants to pass foes and should save all the early ground.

SEVENTH RACE

A NEW TREND puts races together something he hasn’t done since February of last year so right off the bat he is feeling better. He gets off the rail where he broke second to last in his return try but still got the show dough and that was going only 4 1/2 furlongs. He adds 1 1/2 furlongs today where his career tab is a rock solid 11-3-2-4. This race is well spaced off recent effort and notice this guy had only two works going into said return try. ZOMBIE ALAN just won easy and did so at 5-1. As good as that was it was still 11 points below his Beyer top. This guy turns around in less than a week something this barn is 1 for 1 when doing so (paid $12.60). EMBELLISHING BOB is a 10YO and it takes older horses more than a few starts to get back into the swing of things. That was a better effort two back, right? And at 60-1. Coates returns and the price will entice.

EIGHTH RACE

FIERA CANELA goes third time this track and has improved her Beyer in three straight starts. This filly showed better front speed last out and we like more than anything. She draws fine and goes for a barn that is 25% with their maiden claimers. TROPHY CHEST did run OK last out and now goes second time this dirt all for a barn that is 25% with their maiden claimers. A better break would help (9th of 9 last out). SoCal foes in first two starts are obviously way better than these. BONITA REDHEAD returns off the long layoff and drops in class but that makes perfect sense. Who in their right mind would claim a 6YO with one career start. This barn adds blinkers and are 18% with new horses.

NINTH RACE

LONNIE TON is a 9YO with some better starts of late. Is he an Old Good Horse Getting Better? We think so and he has hit the exacta in 18 of 40 starts. Added distance might help as he is 10-23-0 going six furlongs. IRON ALEX ran OK two back when returning off a medium layoff. Not sure what happened last out when going two turns but connections get back to sprinting nonetheless. This horse has won at this distance. Full field helps the pace and this horse needs better than average splits or a minor placing is the best to be hoped for. VIDAKS BACK is quite consistent on the Beyer scale. When he breaks decent he has speed. Added distance helps early position but the break is still key.

TENTH RACE

QUALITY LINE draws outside but has some tactical speed to help with early position. This is only his third turf start but he is still bred to like it with his 302 turf Tomlinson. Current form could not be any better as he has won three straight. One of four sibs is a multiple turf winner. The Silva barn is 25% dirt to turf and 28% with horses that won their last start. This horse fits this condition to a T. DYNAMITE LAD ran OK two and three back and both were on this sod. Even recent dirt sprint wasn’t bad. New barn is noted. THE PUBLIC HALO has solid figs of late and is probably the one to beat. He has enough tactical speed to give Lopez some early options. SUPER ACCORD is by a 4% debut turf sire. His dam went 8-3-1-1 and earned 57K on the green (won turf debut). Lone grass sib is 2-0-0-0. BASHFUL BOB is by a new turf sire. His dam missed the board in only sod start and this is her first grass foal.