ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 9, ISTAN COUNCIL

FIRST RACE

Man in the Can, who has been named the Arkansas-bred of the Year for 2020, makes an appearance on the card in the $150K Nodouble. Other races of interest include a stakes-quality allowance for fillies and mares over a route of ground. In the opener, D’ RAPPER is appealing as one who has seen steeper. He also brings tactical speed to the table. CHAMPAGNEONME exits a quick race against steeper. MUSIC TO MY EARS seems like a strong fit with these.

SECOND RACE

OLIVIAN has the speed to hold her position from the rail. She’s also appealing as one who has broken sharply in both of her starts. RUN FEARLESS has natural speed and a post that might give Court options. DO ME A FAVOR has an age edge on top two as she is 4. SERIOUSLY SASSY is from a mare who was 7-for-8 in dirt sprints.

THIRD RACE

SOLDIER BOY removes blinkers and his last win on form came without a set. He also seems like one who might benefit if the strip is fast after catching wet surfaces in both of his local starts this meet. WINGS UP exits a key race. The third-place finisher came back in his next start to win for a $16K tag at OP with a Beyer of 80 and the fourth-place finisher, Tapalist, a $10K conditioned claimer, also at OP, with a Beyer of 74. CHICKEN TRUCK, who faces older rivals for the first time, exits a race that has produced three next-out winners. The fourthplace finisher, Pico d’Oro, came back to take an N1X at Turfway with a Beyer of 72; the sixth-place finisher, Twirling Mamba, another N1X at Turfway, with a Beyer of 71; and the eighth-place finisher, Ultimate, a conditioned allowance at Hou, with a Beyer of 71. The winner of the race CHICKEN TRUCK exits, Mandaloun, would go on to capture the Grade 2 Risen Star at Fair Grounds.

FOURTH RACE

TOP GUNNER shows a swift five-eighths work in his final prep for his seasonal debut. He went in 59.40 seconds over the local strip, and could show the way here based on the move, the fractions he set in his last start, and the fact that he’s a fresh horse as this marks his first out since December. JACK LUVS NOVA did not get the break last out when closing for third and seems like one who could be closer to the pace with a better start. WESTERN PHAROAH figures to be making his case through the lane on the cutback to one turn, while another of interest is the quick BATTLE HERO, who draws outside of primary pace rival TOP GUNNER.

FIFTH RACE

THE BIG BLUFF makes his first start since November and in addition to Hobby winning at a well above average rate with layoff prospects, this one won off the bench last year at Oaklawn. SOUTHSIDE SWIG has full-on speed and looks like the one these will have to catch. NILES CHANNEL figures to be making his case through the lane on the cutback to one turn.

SIXTH RACE

BITUMEN makes a couple of notable moves. He returns to the straight claiming ranks after facing starter foes. He also returns to racing over six furlongs, site of his last win. BALANDEEN gives up recency to these as this marks his first start since August, but what he lacks there he makes up for in class. His cause is furthered for the fact

that Becker wins at an above average rate with horses returning from layoffs of more than 180 days, according to statistics from Daily Racing Form. HUBBADAHUBBADABOOM, like top choice, is returning to the claiming ranks after facing starter foes.

SEVENTH RACE

SONNY SMACK faced tough conditions and tough company in his last start. The fog set in on what was the final race of a very wet card, while the one-two finishers have stakes wins in their past performances. MISSISSIPPI was a credible fourth in his first start of the year last out and is now back at the mile and a sixteenth distance of his last win. INTREPID HEART owns the field’s best last-race Beyer Figure.

EIGHTH RACE

SOLOMONIC was third at this level last out in a race that went in good time. The Beyer he earned is the best last-race number in this field. BLUERIDGE MOUNTAIN enters in peak form, as a winner of his last two starts. He’s from a multiple stakeswinning mare who earned $353K and she has produced a Grade 3 winner in Salute With Honor ($303K). THOMAS SHELBY should be sharp for the move back to two turns off a pair of sprint starts to launch his season. His dam was a stakes winner of $163K and she has produced a multiple stakes winner in Street of Gold ($282K). CATHOLIC GUILT is a half-brother to Concert Tour, who won the Grade 2, $1 million Rebel here March 13. A day later, this one was a maiden winner at Oaklawn.

NINTH RACE

ISTAN COUNCIL shakes a two-time champion here as she faced Monomoy Girl last out in the Grade 3 Bayakoa at Oaklawn. ISTAN COUNCIL is appealing for her company lines, natural speed and consistent nature. She’s also a winner over the local strip. VAULT was second against similar last out and as such is a logical choice back. She’s a stakes winner and a half-sister to Grade 1 winner Mirth. PIECE OF MY HEART might have a chance to control the pace against these. She is making her second start since August. last-race Beyer Speed Figure. MAN IN THE CAN is the 2020 Arkansas-bred of the Year and figures to be making his case in the later stages. He was turning back from a route last time, when fourth in the local prep for the Nodouble. K J’S NOBILITY won this race a year ago and last out closed for fifth in the local prep. Another of note in the field is the capable BANDIT POINT.

ELEVENTH RACE

CASH ROCKET comes off a runner-up finish at this level at Fair Grounds and for the effort earned what ranks as this field’s best last-race Beyer Figure. Before that start he faced Big Lake, who would go on to win a Fair Grounds allowance and finish a troubled third in the Grade 2, $1 million Rebel at Oaklawn. CAERUS ran a strong race in his debut and is bred to be a runner as his stakeswinning dam has produced the Grade 2 winners Family Tree ($733K) and Liora ($530K). This one is by Curlin. STILLETO BOY makes the move to two turns off some strong sprint races. He gets good pedigree support for the added ground.