ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 9, MUCHO UNUSUAL

FIRST RACE

Notwithstanding an abbreviated work pattern, first-time starter BIG BELL gets the nod in this turf sprint for Cal-bred maiden fillies. Progeny (3yo and up) of stallion Mr. Big won 25 percent first out, the dam of ‘BELL won her debut, and Tim Yakteentrained firsters often outrun their odds. Yakteen’s five-year win rate with firsters is 12 percent, but eight of his 10 debut winners paid $15 or more. The presence of the meet’s leading rider signals positive intent. It might also kill the price. MIND MELD makes her debut with an apparently okay work pattern. She is by a sire whose debut progeny (all ages) have won 13 percent; trainer Mike Puype has a five-year debut win rate of 11 percent, with a flat-bet profit. BOSSY MAMA was all speed and no stick in pre-debut workouts, and ran accordingly in her debut. She showed speed and faded to last. She might improve second time out; sired by Street Boss the move to turf is appropriate.

SECOND RACE

BYE BYE MISS PIE and BRUJA ESCARLATA are tough to separate in this N1X dirt sprint. The call is ‘MISS PIE, who rationed her speed second out and scored a convincing maiden win rallying from off the pace. She is versatile, proven over the Santa Anita main track, and fast based on her 86 debut Beyer. BRUJA ESCARLATA won her debut at Los Alamitos, followed by a starter allowance win on turf at Santa Anita. If she handles SA dirt, she could be long gone. Win or lose, she is likely to set the pace. The filly she beat last out (Translate) was the early favorite in race 7 Friday. TIME FOR EBBY is a seven-time winner who will rally from behind. SHE’S A DIME finished second last out in a Cal-bred sprint stakes.

THIRD RACE

First-timer MINISTER SHANE appears to have worked well including a series of team works early this winter (viewed on XBTV.com). Maidens trained by Carla Gaines typically race into condition rather than fire first out, but Gaines and jockey Umberto Rispoli are 2-for-5 together with firsters since last summer. CIBERTRUCK made the “horses to watch” list following his better-thanlooked fourth-place debut. He was not quick, rated off the pace, rallied outside and finished with run. He might want farther than six furlongs, but he did show ability first out. WHATDIDIDO debuts for the meet’s leading trainer (through Sunday). The gelding’s works look solid, he is a sibling to four winners including stakes winner Barbara Beatrice. JUDAS virtually split the field first out; improvement likely with a race under his belt.

FOURTH RACE

Inside post not a great draw for HERD IMMUNITY, but not a deal breaker for the last-out winner whose $32k claiming comeback victory was decisive. Claimed off the win, up slightly in class, he can fire right back. DIVA’S FINALE scored a solid debut victory for a $30k tag and was claimed. He is drawn outside his main pace rival and figures for a pressing trip in the clear. LOVE MY JIMMY is the aforementioned pace rival, a speedster returning to dirt after setting the pace and tiring late finishing third last out on turf. JOE DON LOONEY won his only start four months ago. He figures to be forwardly placed.

FIFTH RACE

EXULTATION returned as an improved horse this winter after being gelded in spring. Runner-up both comeback starts in fast races, his most recent second was flattered when the horse that beat him (Bench Judge) wheeled back to win a Calbred allowance. EXULTATION stays at the same starter allowance level, and can win from off the pace if he catches HARTEL once again. The latter is pure speed. He set the pace and tired to third both starts this meet, finishing behind the top choice in both. His speed makes him a threat, while stablemate ARMOUR PLATE wheels back one week after a creditable runner-up finish at a mile on turf. A sprint might be perfect for ‘PLATE, who tends to give it up running two turns. SIGALERT had trou

ble finishing fourth behind the top pair last out.

SIXTH RACE

Up a notch to $20k after a front-running $16k win from which he was claimed, OCTOPUS is drawn outside where he could tuck into a cozy trip positioned third behind the speed. Sharp colt in peak form seeks his third win of the meet. CAPTAIN SCOTTY is the “best horse” based on his runnerup finish last out for $32k. He was claimed, but the claim was voided following post-race evaluation. ‘SCOTTY drops two floors, enters with the top recent speed figures, and looms a front-end threat if he can avoid a duel with the horse directly to his outside. That is OUTLAW, a speedster with a speed-riding apprentice. SELF TAUGHT goes route to sprint and will rally at a price.

SEVENTH RACE

SALVATOR MUNDI drops to N2X following a respectable fourth in a Grade 2. The meet’s leading trainer and leading jockey are 11-for-20 with turf favorites since last month. Phil D’Amato also starts GREGDAR, who rallied from behind a fast pace to win a N1X at a mile and one-eighth. Another furlong should be fine. AWARD WINNER and BIG BUZZ have similar front-running styles. ‘WINNER finished second both starts this meet at one mile; BUZZ won a mile and a quarter N1X two weeks ago in his first start since summer.

EIGHTH RACE

Claimed for $25k off a highly rated runner-up finish, DEFENSE WINS enters this starter allowance as the fastest in the field. In a race with plenty of pace, ‘WINS could get a favorable setup for his closing rally. I GOT NO MUNNY was in tough last out in a N1X turf sprint. His debut victory two back on dirt gives him a big look as he drops in for the optional $50k claim tag. HOLDEN THE LUTE goes route to sprint and will rally late, while MIDNIGHT MYSTERY is one of several front-runners in the field including GATE SPEED, NOTRE DAME and DARK PRINCE.

NINTH RACE

G1 winner MUCHO UNUSUAL stands out in this G3. The class of the field, proven at a mile and a quarter, she employs a versatile style that should translate to a cozy trip just off the speed. Her recent form is solid, runner-up last out at a shorter distance against a better rival (Charmaine’s Mia) than she faces here. However, she must catch likely pacesetter TAPWATER. The latter moves up in class after a pace-pressing N2X win. She chased/pressed a fast pace in that mile race, nd now stretches to beyond a mile for the first time. That boosts her chances from a pace perspective. If she is not on the lead by herself, she will be pushing fractions that will be slower than the quick-tempo miles she exits. If she shakes loose and gets comfortable, she could pose an elusive target. NEIGE BLANCHE scratched from an allowance two weeks ago, she shows up instead in this 10-furlong G3. She wants every bit of this distance; her stable’s recent starters have been quietly outrunning their odds. GOING TO VEGAS might be ranked too low. She placed in three successive graded races prior to her last start at a mile. She benefits by the longer distance.