ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 9, TAP IT TO WIN

FIRST RACE

Florida Cup Day kicks off with an interesting maiden claiming sprint. KOZY VILLAGE is out of a sire who is clicking at 15% with his firsters and though the dam’s two career wins came on the turf her best runners, the stakes-placed Ek Haseena and eight-time winner Ca mina con los co dos, were dirts printers; barn specializes with maiden claimers. MARLEE was well off the board as the favorite last time but a slow start from the rail cost her position; against the race flow two back. SIP’N DIP races on the dirt for the first time but new trainer Luis Carvajal Jr. does well with horses making this surface switch, as well as with private acquisitions; doesn’t meet the deepest of fields but she could be overbet some based on those turf Beyers.

SECOND RACE

WICKED STRONG ALEX deserves one more shot after hitting the board in his last two starts under similar conditions to these; had no chance in those route races three and four back, thanks to a duel in one race and a loose leader who posted a huge figure four back. STOPIT cuts back to a sprint, and it was at this distance where he posted his lone career win to date; dangerous if he runs to that effort/figure on his return to seven furlongs. DISCO’S BRIDGE us clearly a threat off his latest try, when beaten just a neck after setting the pace on a loose lead; moves outside and doesn’t seem likely to get clear here but he can rate off the pace if need be.

THIRD RACE

CRYSTAL SKY posted the best Beyer of her short career in her debut, which was her only start without blinkers, and she will have the shades removed today, which is a positive angle for trainer Walter Woodard; has the speed to get position from the start. BEND THE KNEE ran her best race yet on the dirt in her latest and she’s dangerous here with another step forward, as she has improved with each of her last two starts in terms of Beyers for trainer Aldana Gonzalez. BETTER BOAT faded after stalking the pace in her first start off the layoff but she could be looking for the lead today as she goes a little longer in her second start back.

FOURTH RACE

KARNAK moves from turf to dirt and turns back to a sprint for trainer Arnaud Delacour, who does well enough with both of those angles, and his three siblings to race all won on dirt, including multiple stakes-winning sprinter Bode’s Dream; this son of Pioneerof the Nile also adds blinkers and the works since his latest try suggest this move agrees with him. OH STEVE is going to be tough as the favorite, as his Beyers stand out in this maiden sprint; picks up Paco Lopez, which adds to the appeal but also means an even lighter price. MCRAGS is kin to five starters, all of them multiple winners, including Parlor, who won his own debut and earned over $574K, albeit mostly on turf; decent works showing for this colt’s first career start.

FIFTH RACE

CHESS’S DREAM is going to be a handful today if he’s able to run back to that last Beyer, which stands out amongst this Sophomore Turf field; gets Lasix for this, and while he may not get another dream set of fractions as he did in his latest there does seem to be enough pace in this field to set him up to make the last run. LIGHT US UP may be the right value play, as he has not been able to run to his potential on the turf yet thanks to race flows that have not been in

his favor; first start off the layoff but he’s working extremely well toward this return. HOT BLOODED is one of the likely speeds; gets Lasix for this, a 30% angle for the barn, and he could get loose here under leading rider Samy Camacho if INDY LYON is unwilling/unable to run with him early.

SIXTH RACE

TONALISA is the first starter out of a dam who was a dirt sprinter but she debuts for trainer Mike Stidham, who is always tough with firsters on the turf; works suggest she has some speed and she picks up Gallardo for her bow. IN ITALIAN, the first starter from the dam, is from the barn of trainer Chad Brown, which makes her a contender by default, though it also likely means a depressed price; it would be no surprise were she to come out running, as the works are steady and solid. EARNESTINE N HAZEL gets Lasix for her first start off the short layoff, and trainer Christophe Clement does well on both fronts; well bet in her debut, and while she was off the board the resulting Beyer gives her strong credibility.

SEVENTH RACE

WILLY BOI was a sharp and game winner of the Hutcheson, pressing the pace from the start yet staving off the closers late; the 81 Beyer he posted there makes him the one to beat in this Sophomore Stakes, even if he now has to go an additional furlong. BREEZE ON BY is the one to beat, making his seasonal debut for Ralph Nicks but with very competitive figures; he’s proven at the distance, and though he was beaten as a heavy favorite when sent long when last seen he did rate effectively in that route, and that should help him avoid a duel with the top pick. TWO STEPPIN KLUKI debuts in a tough spot but could prove best of the rest if he runs to his works; the dam and her only sibling to start thus far were turfers but this gelding clearly has some speed.

EIGHTH RACE

J P HELLISH seems to hold a tactical advantage in this Turf Classic as the main speed in a relatively paceless race. He was unable to stay close to the leaders in that starter allowance race last time but those were very quick splits, and he never threatened, but he should be able to get clear fairly easily here; if he can back down the fractions sufficiently he can run to his best figures, which may be good enough, and he does figure to be a square price. SECOND MATE was third in a beaten claimer last time but that Beyer, as well as his other recent figures, make him a big threat; needs to stay close if the pace is in fact controlled from the start. SHAMROCKET has steady figures and an inside post; cuts back to 1 1/8 miles but perhaps he has enough tactical speed to work out a forward trip.

NINTH RACE

TAP IT TO WIN makes his first start off the layoff but he won last year when he came back from a break and he lands in an apparently ideal spot in terms of pace in this Sprint Stakes, as his best game is when he’s able to stalk the leaders and make one run and there are several confirmed speeds in this field; best Beyers make him easy to like as well. SOUPER STONEHENGE suffered a tough loss in that last one, dueling for the lead from the start and just missing late, but he has also proven he can rate off the pace and make one run; expecting him to revert to stalking tactics today given the expected race flow. CAJUN BROTHER has strong Beyers and meets lesser after setting the pace and weakening only late in the Grade 3 Gulfstream Park Sprint last time; last two Beyers make him a top contender today but the fact is they were earned with the aid of ideal trips, and he could regress without that type of set up today.

TENTH RACE

SUMMERING scored a little less than a year ago when she made her first start since August of the previous year, and she returns today in the Distaff Turf with some of the best Beyers in the field and works that suggest she’s ready; tactical speed should ensure a favorable trip regardless of how the pace scenario develops. BIENVILLE STREET will need to work out a trip from the hedge but given clear sailing she will make an impact in the lane; needs pace help but given any kind of honest fractions she figures tough late under Paco Lopez. BEAUTIFUL LOVER has back figures that put her right in the middle of this; up the course when last seen but she was caught too close to the pace there, and she’s at her best when she’s able to sit further off the lead and make one run.

ELEVENTH RACE

GO JO JO GO gets Lasix as she makes her 2021 debut, and trainer Michael Yates has solid stats with horses off this type of layoff as well as with horses receiving medication for the first time; she’s going to have to improve to beat Princess Secret but she does seem set to take a big step forward in this Sophomore Fillies Stakes. R ADIOS JERSEY is undefeated in three starts and she has been very versatile, winning both on the lead as well as from just off the pace; looks like the one to beat but she goes seven furlongs for the first time and could be overbet. PRINCESS SECRET has yet to run a bad race, and she is proven at the distance; first start of the year but clearly dangerous if she runs to her best efforts.

TWELFTH RACE

ELUSIVE RYDER had an epically bad trip three back and she returned to score two back despite getting away slowly, and having to race on the dirt when the race was switched off the grass; she was off the board last time but she once again had trouble, and she can post the upset here if she finally gets clear sailing. MARIES MELODY was well back on the wire last time but a race-long duel from an outside post gives her a clear and legit excuse; big threat here if she can avoid a similar trip. LAKE PARIMA parlayed a perfect trip into a win over non-winners of three; meets better today but merits respect based on that figure, as she has steadily improved with each start.