ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 5, N. K. ROCKET MAN

FIRST RACE

RAAGHEB need only to repeat his recent race to take this. He lost by a neck to multiple stakes winner and triple digit Beyer earner Chief Cicatriz. This gelding has improved his Beyer speed figure in three straight and once again gets good race flow even if not as fast as previous (43 1 half mile). MINISTER OF SOUL showed a ton of zip last out but he won’t have to do that again as their is no Chief C in this race. Form cycle hints at better and this gelding could get an early breather. MR PAYTIENCE was trying tougher last out and paid the price. He draws inside main pace foes today so he could hold the rail for a while if things break just right.

SECOND RACE

LOVE LYRIC has speed and draws inside going only 4 1/2 furlongs. How is this spot much different from her winning one two back? Granted, these are winners but this field didn’t come up that tough. We even think this filly had something left in the tank when winning two back. She simply went too fast in most recent when facing first time winners. INDIA WILKES passed foes last out and this is a good spot for that. Form cycle hints at better and this filly draws outside once again. YEP YEP YEP just ran a better than it looks 4th versus better going only 870 yards (basically four furlongs). What if this mare needed her return try two back? She has some decent tries before the layoff in New Mexico. A better price than some, right?

THIRD RACE

CATS TOUCH is a new route horse that draws well (see inside) and has some speed in a race without much zip. Plus, he is a hard trier that has hit the board in over half of his starts. Let’s move on then. BRICKBAT ran OK 1, 2, and 4 back. We even like that sprint start two back. With a good break and some early encouragement this gelding could be up close and personal in the early running. At this level, that is half the battle. IRISH POLO won routing three back. AND that was with a wide trip. Even running style going short bodes well for today’s added distance.

FOURTH RACE

AL RHYTHM has run well in most of his races that are showing in his pp’s. That includes some sharp starts on this dirt. The leading barn calls the shots and they are winning at 31%. They are an even better 35% with their claimers. The only knock is that this field came up tough for the level. COUNTRY ROAD is better of late and connections waste little time finding this guy another race. It is the old strike while the iron is hot angle. Race flow is only average for this stalker though. GRAND AIR is the other Evans runner. This gelding is 2 for 2 on this dirt when it comes to the exacta and goes third off the layoff today. He should be content to stalk early so and the leading rider stays put (38% for this barn). Like we said this is a good field.

FIFTH RACE

N. K. ROCKET MAN, today’s best bet, just broke his maiden on this sod and isn’t done improving. He is bred to love the grass. Second time this sod can only help and connections find a great spot for this gelding. We like that this horse has worked between starts. There is some other speed in here but nothing to suggest a fast pace. AUTISM SAVANT didn’t fire last out but he was returning off a layoff. The Wong barn is 26% second off this type of layoff. Second time Lasix can’t hurt. This barn is 22% on the grass and show a flat bet profit. His last race came back key when 2 of 7 returned to win with figs of 61 and 57. ULTIMATE MYSTERY did break his maiden on this sod four back and now lures the leading rider in Negron. A wide trip did not help matters previously. A recent work is noted.

AUNT RUTHIE was buried on the rail in her debut but won nonetheless. We actually like that she started her career as a 4YO. Both sibs are good with one being a multiple winner of 132K and the other 1 for 8 (banked 72K). Notice how connections find a spot where this filly can’t be claimed. We also like that she returns at win distance of 6 1/2 furlongs. Corbett is 4 for 5 when riding for team Diodoro. PRINCESS TALE puts three races together for the first time and that is a big plus. She drops a notch in class and goes for the leading barn. Race flow is only average though. LAST PUNCH has speed and might prove quickest if able to break sharp. She is a state-bred facing open though.

SEVENTH RACE

BIG TONY is by a 20% debut sire. His dam went 45-9-12-7 and earned 56K. Both sibs won including a multiple winner of 16K. Homebred could have tried state-breds but ended up here which we think is a plus. Works are rock solid. MORE FIREWATER ran OK in his debut and now drops in class. Most runners improve the second time they do anything. ABOVE THE LAW did nothing in his debut but that only helps the price today. Plus, he got race experience and that matters most. A recent work is noted. The rail draw is a bummer.

EIGHTH RACE

BABY SHAMU ran a Beyer top three back and then beat it by a point two back. Both were off layoffs. Not the cleanest of trips in local debut. That race came back key when 2 of 2 returned to win (no available Beyers as of this writing). We love how this gelding puts races together as he must be feeling better. Trainer stats for team Hone are solid across the board. MR. TRIPLEDOUBLE broke his maiden around two turns but then flopped last out when doing it again. Weird. Or maybe stakes foes were simply too much. When horses find themselves further behind than usual they often spit the bit. Good, more energy for today. The Silva barn is 35% route to sprint. COLONEL TRAVERS runs for Evans with Negron up and for many that is an automatic include. Yes, this colt just got a Beyer top in first start for new barn. We think our top pick might be quicker and this horse runs for the third time in March.

NINTH RACE

PINK SKY is in good form and is a hard trier that has hit the exacta in 8 of 11 starts. We know that she likes this dirt (or any dirt for that matter). Added half furlong helps and she draws fine. DUTCH MAMA might offer some value. Those Grants Pass fields were for the most part solid. This mare has won on this dirt before (Beyer top). Recent turf try should have her plenty fit on the cut back. SPUN LINE seems better every other start. Here is another that goes turf to dirt and two turns to one.

TENTH RACE

ITS A BOY just ran better and did so first out for new barn. We are convinced that this gelding is a good turf horse. This gelding gets good race flow, draws fine, finds a logical spot, and turns around in only 8 days. CROW MOON has speed to help with this outside post but other speed is a concern. This barn has been very good with their turf runners at the meet. We think this guy sends hard and dares the other speed to run with him. PACIFIC NIGHTS is an old favorite of ours. He did run OK when last seen off a layoff when third at 49-1. The works are fine and this barn knows this guy best. Alas, this horse is a 12YO and we all know that time is undefeated. Rooting hard nonetheless and this closer does get a fast pace to chase. We would be shocked if any public handicapper picked this guy which only helps the price.