ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 1, VIVAZANO

FIRST RACE

VIVAZANO went 0-3 on dirt last summer but she ran well in those races while showing some speed, especially in that 65 Beyer debut when making the lead and settling for 3rd behind a pair of fillies who are now both multiple winners; Gleaves 2 for his last 4 with dirt sprinters following 180+ day layoffs ($3.65 ROI), 2 for 3 in MSW races in that sample. ELECTRIC YOUTH caught a sloppy track first time out and made a long, wide mid-move into that race before flattening out a bit late; she did have a competitive pace in front of her there, but that was an okay place to start for a trainer who had a strong winter here. DOM’S FEISTY GIRL a firster by the excellent sire Constitiution (18% with debut runners) and from a dam who won five times in her career, all in sprints; Sciacca underrated with first-time starters.

SECOND RACE

RESPECT FOR ALL cut back while adding blinkers off the claim here 18 days ago and he never looked comfortable while chasing the pace from the start; debut win was solid while confidently ridden, and he finished a good 3rd vs. a much better field in his second start while earning a field-best 68 Beyer; blinkers come right off as he stretches back out. SCOTTY improved first time on dirt when dropped in class two back, then pressed the pace before easily pulling clear in the stretch to break his maiden last time; trending upward for an excellent trainer. BELLAMY DOLCE didn’t earn much of a figure en route to breaking his maiden last time, but he won that race convincingly, and did so while away from a good rail throughout the running; picks up Irad looking to take another step forward.

THIRD RACE

THE RIGHT PATH starting back from a layoff with a drop in class and he has shown a tendency to run well fresh in the past; prefer him sprinting and he has run well in both Aqueduct starts to date. MO GOTCHA won the first two dirt sprints of his career in races that are separated by over a year, the most recent of those last September with a competitive 84 Beyer; faced much tougher than this in his last

two starts on this circuit. NOT PHAR NOW trounced a weak field of maiden claimers when dropped in class two back, then took a step forward to score again when bumped up off the Atras claim; has ability for a trainer in the midst of a strong run.

FOURTH RACE

The 78 Beyer earned by BARISTA VIXEN for her maiden score two back towers over her competition here, and she had a legit excuse last time when breaking on her knees and then just missing at the wire to a rival who rode the stronger inside paths all the way; drops. MAKE OR BREAK hasn’t won a race in over a year, though she has hit the board in five of her nine dirt starts since; threat off the claim for an underrated trainer - Arriaga 6 for his last 17 first off the claim in dirt routes (35%, $5.29 ROI). AMITY ISLAND is lightly-raced for top connections and exiting a career-best effort in breaking her maiden when last seen, which was also her first start with lasix; upside in a race lacking for much of same.

FIFTH RACE

WHICHWAY TOMALIBU failed to improve on his decent early form when returned from the layoff late last year, but he did finally take a step in the right direction last time when overpowering maiden claimers to win clear in start number 11; Kimmel had a strong winter here and he is solid with last-out maiden winners - 8 for his last 46, 17%, $3.33 ROI. SOCIAL GROUP likely to be one of the choices here after a 1 for 3 beginning to his career, that victory coming on debut over this distance; back quickly for his second start off the claim and dropping slightly after facing a tougher group here last week. UNBRIDLED JOHN contested the pace and was no match for repeat winner King of Americain last month in this condition; has speed and his prior to fast dirt races over this distance earned him figures that would make him tough in here.

SIXTH RACE

INDIAN COUNSELOR dropped to score in his NY debut last month and, while he only narrowly held on at a short price that day, he showed a new dimension while keeping close to the pace and then dueling down a pace rival, before lasting over the closing runnerup; was often running too late while failing out of town but he can get this distance as he goes off the claim for an excellent trainer. FIRST LINE the lone two-time winner over this distance in the field, and he came up just short of picking up a third nine-furlong victory last time while facing tougher than this; strong contender right back. ADVANCE NOTICE won first time out at Saratoga while in for $20k and hasn’t won since, though he comes into this race as the speed with some of the top figures in the field; lone two-turn try to date was a solid effort to just miss over this course and distance.

SEVENTH RACE

INVALUABLE has been on a strong run since making her first three starts at Gulfstream to no avail and has now been either first or second in seven straight, four of them wins; is 0-2 over this distance in NY but she ran well in both of those races while facing some much better horses, including colts three back in December; speed from the outside but she is facing some fillies with potential in this spot. WATER WHITE one of those with potential while starting back from a layoff following an abbreviated 3yo campaign; is 2 for 2 over this distance at Aqueduct, including a game score in the Busher early last year, after which she managed only one other start. SHARP STARR is going to be hard to beat if showing up with her best race as she drops in class, but her last two races have been a little flat following a pair of superior efforts over this track and trip at the end of last year.

EIGHTH RACE

HUMPDAY faced much tougher in his dirt debut two back in the mud, then dropped and contested a quick pace for the level before settling for 3rd last time; may simply be in the right spot here while still eligible to improve. A VOW OF BEAUTY has already had his chances but he exits a careerbest effort when settling for second last time in just his second attempt at this level; picks up Irad for this third start off the layoff. RETICENT never threatened while earning competitive figures in his first two starts, then dropped to this level and finished a gaining 3rd behind A VOW OF BEAUTY in his first start with blinkers last time; tries again.