ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 4, SECRET TIME FIRST RACE

Not so great kicking the early pick 5 with a five-horse field, and I didn’t like the race at all before doing some stats digging and finding what might be a useful nugget regarding BENNYFROMTHEBRONX. His trainer, Chad Brown, is 0-12 with the most recent sample of KEE MSW runners, but you have to recall that KEE 2020 consisted of a July meet and an October meet, and Brown used to run horses at KEE only in the spring. So go back to spring meets between 2017 and 2019 and - wow. 9-6-2-1 in KEE MSWs over that period. Two of those winners were firsters, the other four were making their second career start following a Gulf debut - just like Benny. That gives him the edge for me off a useful debut run behind Collaborate, who remains a very talented colt despite failing on the rush job into the G1 last weekend. GHAZAALY already got his second-out improvement, and really, he should have won that last race at GP. AMERICAN LAW did have to wait when shuffled on the turn, then came with a nice turn of foot to reach contention. Didn’t work for nearly a month Feb to March. Yes, Empire Maker dam, but this is a sprinty family, & not sure 9f is great.

SECOND RACE

In terms of single race performance, Blameworthy and He’s In Charge might have been the second- and thirdfastest 2 & 3yo sprinters in NoLa this winter behind the now-injured Prate, and A C EXPRESSWAY finished third behind that pair March 11, his form leaping forward with blinkers removed. Like him at the Beard Course trip. The change MAHOMES MONEY got that at least coincided with (if not outright motivating) improved laststart performance was Lasix on. Gotta like a change in running style, too, in a suddenly improve performance.

CHASING ARTIE’s win came in a $15K maiden-claimer; he’s clearly better than that, but even if loose will struggle to stay this extended one-turn trip.

THIRD RACE

The thought is this MSW dirt sprint could be open to chaos. We’ve got the 2nd- and 3rd-place finishers, Shadow Matter and K C Rocket, from a so-so FG MSW, a couple other 2nd-time starters who have shown something but not a lot, and the debut of the Cox-trained brother to California Chrome, Primary Endpoint. Don’t trust any of the lot, to be honest. GUN LAP debuted with a solid finish against Gagetown, who has not turned out to be special but was at least an average maiden winner, then was stretched out to no great positive effect at FG. Now he’s first-time gelding, which seems a good thing, while cut back to a sprint, also a plus, even if blinkers on has not been a very productive move for trainer T Drury. Should sneak under the radar price-wise. RECIDIVIST broke a little flat-footed, rushed up with a quick move to duel inside the odds-on favorite, put that horse away in upper stretch only to be tagged late by a closing winner in a fairly encouraging career debut. By Into Mischief, so, dirt, and the outside draw could help; likely a fair price. Will narrowly side with K C ROCKET over SHADOW MATTER out of the FG MSW race. D Stewart trains the latter and it’s better latching onto his runners under less obvious circumstances.

FOURTH RACE

SECRET TIME has raced in nothing but stakes competition since she won a July maiden at Longchamp, a race in which Flighty Lady, who is a high-level Peter Brant-owned runner, finished third. Moreover, her performances in the stakes races where she didn’t catch courses with too much give have been consistently creditable, and the drop to an N1X from facing the likes of Got Stormy and Zofelle last time out is truly massive. Worked three times since last and well drawn on the fence - should thump this bunch. WE THE CLOUDS showed ample early ability, struggled last summer, but popped back toward her best form last out in her turf debut. Will take that race at face value and assume the surface switch has unlocked her nascent talent. OSAKA

GIRL’s long litany of narrow defeats includes one at this class level over the KEE course.

FIFTH RACE

Very meaty N1X allowance with plenty of places to turn. Will eschew the shorter prices on the line and side with SANTA

CRUISER, who easily could be bet considerably low the listed 10-1 price. This is the horse in the race taking the big drop, from serious “Derby preps” back into N1X. He teased as the only horse really running late in the Lecomte, but that was mainly a mirage, and the strong thought is Santa Cruiser will really appreciate turning back to a long sprint. Debuted against champ Essential Quality then ran two good ones, and now is first Lasix with two works following the OP slop flop.

PALIO ought to be a long, long price here. Only beat VA-breds last summer on the CNL turf but actually made a fine impression in so doing. He was the workmate a couple times at FG with Proxy, one of the better 3yos in North America, and connections were quite impressed with how he was going not just in those drills but generally. Always good to know there is some substance behind the quick morning clockings. Really liked the look of ONE FAST CAT’s Turfway debut, but in fairness, the favorite he beat turned into something of a punching back for TP MSWs over the winter. He’s a good-sized colt whom Ward seemingly has held back to this spot, but the rail draw is a real bummer, and Ward’s numbers in a bunch of pertinent categories underwhelm.

SIXTH RACE

Given their respective trips in the BC Juvenile Fillies Turf over this course last fall, SPANISH LOVEAFFAIR ran at least as well as Plum Ali, if not better, and where Plum Ali is making her first start since that race — meaning we don’t know how she wintered — Spanish Loveaffair already came back in 2021 with a very nice showing. Took a tough DQ last time in a dominant performance and should work

into a good trip tracking Lasix-off front-runner, Jouster, who does not put up fast finishing fractions. Will try to sneak FLOWN into the exacta over PLUM ALI. The latter beat the former at Kentucky Downs but got first run on wide-drawn Flown that day, and I thought Flown showed plenty of life returning to win an KEE maiden race last fall, as well as in video of a couple recent Florida turf works. Connections have the N1X allowance option sitting out there but opt for this stakes, a positive. Have never been around PLUM ALI but on video she looked like a pretty strong and mature summer 2yo last season. She appeared to take at least a small step back in the Breeders’ Cup and at a relatively short price here I’d rather hold fire this time and see how she’s done from age 2 to 3.

SEVENTH RACE

Do not much care for this race, frankly, and am picking against horses as much as positively supporting my choices. Obviously SPECIAL RESERVE is totally unproven at the level, and there’s a good chance he simply won’t class up. But since a recent equipment change, blinkers off, coincided with the two best showings of his career; and since Maker, who claimed him two back, sees fit to step him up off the sharp OP allowance win; and since this race lacks pace and he could make the front and control tempo; and since he’s going to be at least 8-1, will take a shot for the top spot. Would actively like ATTACHMENT

RATE, who prospered last out when cut back from twoturns to a one-turn mile, were there more speed to set up his run. Turned in some very solid 3yo stakes tries last year and has one-turn upside right now. Can’t fault the visual on HIDDEN SCROLL from his Cox-debut, OP win last out, but the horse does seem to love a wet track. Faced several of the same horses Special Reserve beat in a pretty comparably performance, but SR is 12-1 on the line, Scroll just 5-2, and that’s a 5-2 coming along with plenty of baggage. Do think he could be sitting on a serious effort but can’t support that chance at the likely odds. Also happy to wager against FLAGSTAFF, whose blinker experiment was short lived, indeed.

EIGHTH RACE

IMPRIMIS lost his most recent start - but so what? Defeats still are terribly over-rated by handicappers. Give me a good, closing-ground loss like Imprimis’s over an all-out victory any day vis a vis forecasting future performance. That also was an $80K turf sprint at TAM, this a $200K race at KEE which spot, really, do you think had primacy for the connections? Know way of knowing where, exactly Imp would’ve finished in the BC Turf Sprint, but we can see he did have run and was set to knife between horses for a contending kick before all went terribly amiss. So, so much speed signed on here; Imp will get a great setup and if he can find a way through traffic this time, he wins. AMERICAN BUTTERFLY might be 50-1 on the morning line but I’ll have a few dollars on him to win and will use prominently in single-race exotics. American Pharoah out of a War Front mare, generally speaking, is a strong turf-leaning pedigree, and, more specifically, the dam’s lone win came in a turf sprint. This colt has gotten one grass look, in a route where he went too fast over a distance far behind his best. His peak dirt performances give him a shot if he does take to grass and the stalking style could come in very handy if even 60% of the potential pace shows. Race-shape-wise JUST MIGHT might not fare so well but he is one of those chronic overlay horses, and a repeat of his 2020 KEE run in the Woodford gives him a legit top 3 shot. BOUND FOR NOWHERE would’ve gotten a higher rating had he not drawn so wide.

NINTH RACE

I don’t hold SIMPLY RAVISHING’s Golden Rod against her at all - except, I guess, in the sense she might not be another Swiss Skydiver, able to keep producing top races nearly indefinitely — since she seemed clearly over the top following a long, strong summer and fall campaign. Performed commendably in BC Juv Fil with circumstances against her, proven over the KEE dirt, looks well prepared for comeback run, ad is the “best” horse in the Ashland. Sure, this is a KY Oaks prep, but that doesn’t mean she won’t win it. WILL’S SECRET could be the overlooked filly here. Not just three wins in a row, but improvement all along and tactical variation as circumstances warranted. Final-time speed figures like Beyers tamped down by crawling pace at OP last time she finished quite fast there (by 3yo dirt-route standards) and evinced an appealing physical presence. Now, the filly who rallied for 2nd was coming off an FG maiden win and does not appear top class, and in the top pick WS is meeting a different manner of beast now, but again, the price should be right. Flopped between Pass the Champagne & MALATHAAT for the third slot. Malathaat won the last Demoiselle because Millefeuille, who has come back to race poorly this year, stuck her feet in the ground. M is a large, hearty specimen & yes there’s a chance she can grow and improve, but until shown otherwise couldn’t have her at the same level as Ravishing.

TENTH RACE

Estilo Talentoso can’t win or even place, barring the bizarre, and I don’t care for Fair Maiden, but the other five? Can’t rule it out. Mundaye Call seems suspect from a “quality” perspective but she also is lone speed, and when she controlled the pace versus a lesser group, albeit one that included Sconsin, she ran huge last summer at Ellis. Still, I can’t get behind her off that one start, and while Sconsin ended her 3yo season like a filly who’d be better as a 4yo, and has been working with verve, she’s number 4 on my scale here. Possibly biased because have always “liked” the horse but it’ll be KIMARI on top for me. Her last two dirt races came over OP slop, but have a glance at her fast-track KEE career debut. Also believe she is quick enough to keep tabs on Mundaye Call if only she would break alertly. Unlike Sconsin and BELL’S THE ONE she’s had a start this year, and it was very, very good, and this excellent mare absolutely should have a G1 on her resume. As trainer N Pessin said in a phone interview this week, everything he wanted to do with Bell’s the One since she came back to the barn in January, he’s been able to do. Not convinced that a slower pace has to do her in. Loves the KEE dirt.

SANENUS might be the best value. Her La Canada was high level, as have been her team works with Smooth Like Strait. Having to miss the 3/13 Beholder after tying up the day before, plus post 1 here, are the negatives.

ELEVENTH RACE

Since I’m taking the odds-on favorite on top here, and his merits are obvious to anyone looking at the form, will try to be relatively brief. ESSENTIAL QUALITY has come out of his sweet 2021 debut with some fine FG work before shipping north, and it easily could be he who fills the Blue Grass pace void. They aren’t looking to burn the house down four weeks before the Derby, but he can get in a perfect prep and still beat these. Will take a little shot in the second hole with UNTREATED, who looked like the best 3yo racing on the Tampa Bay Derby card. Pletcher is 1-26 wins going maiden to graded stakes in 3yo dirt routes over the last five years, but nine of those starters have finished 2nd or 3rd. Get the sense this colt could take a more forward position here. Can’t see connex of HIGHLY MOTIVATED wanting to get to the front, take pressure from EQ, and turn the Blue Grass into a stamina test with a horse who might wind up more a miler. The dam, 2nd dam, and 3rd dam all wanted one turn. Think he is set up to show his best here, but just guessing the distance will slightly find him out in the end.