ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 7, TUNED

FIRST RACE

Trainer and jockey of VIDAL launched the KEE meet with Bohemian Frost, who had excellent speed and wired the first baby race of the season. Vidal appears to have worked with Bohemian Frost, a couple ticks slower, on 3/21, coming back with a snappy 3f that suggests she, too, is quick. Speaking of quick, the very fast short drills from BAYTOWN FROSTY hint at a lot of speed, but she’s drawn very wide. If homebred KAUFYMAKER, with her pedigree and works, where trained by Wardley Wes and ridden by Orad Itiz, she’d be something like 8-1 here. For Wesley Ward and Irad Ortiz, she’s favored. Ward of course went 0-2 with his Friday maidens, though Dream Flight might well have beaten Bohemian F had she not blown the break.

SECOND RACE

Trainer B Colebrook often does well at KEE and his two winners (from two starters) opening week were well prepared and spotted. CANCELLARA gets a $5K claiming-price bump, a positive, off the second out maiden win in which she added blinkers and Lasix and got a class drop following her MSW debut. Solid run last time and can build on that, especially since the pedigree leans dirt over any other surface. HARD STING looks well spotted in second start on the KY circuit and can be forgiven the subpar run last out in synthetic-surface debut. She’s just 1-12 career, however, and the best Maryland runs were Laurel one-turn miles. CLEVELAND SIMPSON a mystery on dirt and got an easy trip en route to the TP $15K maiden score last time. Can’t rule out but definitely wouldn’t want anything like the 2-1 morning-line price.

THIRD RACE

Tough, tough race, and find it difficult separating most of these filly turf maidens. THE FLYING PHAROAH might have more positional pace than she showed in debut, where she gave the gate a solid thump upon departing. The trip was far from clean thereafter, and while sixth, she was beaten less than three lengths while posting the fastest final quarter mile in that field. Has returned with encouraging work. Dam a sister to Champ Pegasus,

a long-winded turf graded-stakes winner. BALLACOLLA and BIG BEE exit the same Tampa maiden race, where they debuted, and while Big Bee took a more forward position, she had the more difficult trip as Ballacolla came with a wide run in the clear, both galloping out well. Big Bee is a candidate to lead in what looks like a paceless race but will give the edge between the two to BALLACOLLA, whose dam was a 1 1/2-mile horse. Could be set for meaningful improvement - though that also could be said of MULSANNE and LAYNLOMAKNDOUGH, with A THING OF BEAUTY also in the mix.

FOURTH RACE

KAELY’S SISTER’s two races came on Tapeta at Turfway but all along she’s been training on Keeneland dirt, and while her TP form is solid enough, I wonder if she doesn’t improve on dirt. Speed in a race with other front-runners but the outside draw in a short field gives jockey Saez all the options. Homebred reasonably dropped top $50K N2L claiming and gets narrow call over MAKEAJOYFULNOISE. Latter still above the claim price these connections paid and ran into the very fast Euphoric last out in a FG N1X allowance. On the bare form she beats the top pick, but am guessing the bare form won’t tell all here. MADAME OVERSERVED fits the spot in many respects but looks like a more natural 5 1/2-furlong kind of filly who could get swept into fractions that won’t help her stay the six panels.

FIFTH RACE

Not sure how good PERHAPS TONIGHT is or even how far she really wants to run, but do know she had no chance at much of a placing last out at GP making US debut given the trip she pulled. Here’s hoping she breaks better than she did overseas and takes a forward position on what ought to be a modest tempo. THIRD DRAFT probably made a premature move two back at AQU in her 2yo finale and rallied encouragingly in her 3yo bow while racing on Lasix for the first time. Can’t get too excited at the likely price but she’s likely to be a part of things. SALIT’s two dirt starts suggest she’ll appreciate getting back to turf, where she caught the eye in her debut this winter at GP.

SIXTH RACE

DON’T FORGET looks more like a 3-5 shot than a 9-5, as listed on the line, but I’ll still bite. The cutback to sprints has worked wonders, he’s in for a lovely trip stalking a fast, contested pace, and he even got a March 28 workout in preparation for this. TESTY KITTEN’s most recent dirt race came over 1 1/4 miles, making the poor performance easy to forgive, and his three previous dirt tries hint he’s far from overmatched in this spot. Race shape could suit, the comeback run at TP last time likely a prep, and the price should be plenty fair. SAVAGE NATION, the Mahoning Valley Flash, looks like an underlay with Rosario named to ride, and is not a big one for passing horses.

SEVENTH RACE

TUNED had tough trips two and three starts back and no pace at which to run last time, still turning in creditable performances in those three races, two graded stakes, one non-graded stake. The class relief down to allowance competition comes with a cozy draw and over the course where she won her N American debut. Juddmonte homebred POCKET SQUARE had a nearly lost 2020 campaign but has form with clues she possesses ample ability for a spot like this. Chad Brown has won with four of his last seven KEE starters making their N American debut, and is three for three over the sample with Juddmonte homebreds. Would have taken on top if not for the poor outside draw. WALK IN MARRAKESH faces older horses for the first time and seemed never to quite get over the hump last season.

EIGHTH RACE

STAY HOME has three second-place finishes, showing meaningful improvement, since blinkers were removed in February. Overlay the two-turn form with the sprint form and the horse looks lIKE he’ll suit the Beard Course, a long one-turn sprint. IKE cuts back with speed after getting cooked on a hot pace last time at Oaklawn. Connections got DISTORTED RANSOM eligible for $5K starter allowance races last out in his long-layoff comeback and now he’s not in for a tag. The pre-break form stamps him as a long-priced possible though I’d guess he’ll be better next race than this one.