ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 5, PROVOST

FIRST RACE

MAJOR MUNNINGS is feeling great and now ends up with Evans the leading trainer that is also 33% off the claim. This super short distance of two furlongs means one things and one thing only which is pure, raw, gate speed. This gelding has it. CAPITAL EXPENSE has never missed the exacta going two furlongs. This gelding just runs well with Cruz up and he was aboard for two furlong win on this dirt 11 back. SMILING ANGELO is another with a lot of zip. Cruz leaves for our 2nd choice but Valenzuela is 1 for 1 for this barn ($12).

SECOND RACE

TEQUILA TIME tried a tough 6 1/2 furlongs in his debut and actually ran well for four furlongs before tiring down the lane. All things considered, it was a solid debut. Both sibs beat winners. We like this outside post for a young horse. RELIANT just missed in her debut and has every right to improved second time racing. Not breaking dead last will help also. Facing the boys as a 3YO is a small knock but recent work just the opposite. IZERIGHT has run well in all three starts and all at different distances. He has improved his Beyer in every start. His is the best last race Beyer. DON WITH THE WIND is by a 12% debut sire. His dam went 6-3-0-0 and earned 24K. Of 6 sibs to race, 5 won with 4 having beat winners (best earned 130K and 265K). FEARLESS OVERCOMER is by a 18% debut sire. His dam went 4-2-0-1 and earned 30K. All 3 sibs beat winners with earnings of 11K, 19K, and 28K.

THIRD RACE

ZATTER goes for top barn and drops in class all while going fourth in current form cycle. First call rider keeps the mount and this gelding is 3 for 3 going this distance. THUNDER BOAT is the fresh face from NoCal and lands in a barn that is 19% with new runners. This gelding is 1 for 2 on a real dirt surface. ALL AMERICAN HERO has speed but so does the horse one door to his right. Recent Beyers are second best only to our top pick.

FOURTH RACE

ATTILA’S TATTLE sheds weight, draws outside, has speed, can stalk, goes third off the layoff, loves blinkers, and loves this dirt. Let’s move on then. GRAM

MYSPERFECTSTAR likes a shortened sprint and draws inside with some speed in tow. Local tab is fine while this barn is 21% with horses that won their last race.

NICE AND TRUE ran well going 1,000 yards the last two times that she tried a real dirt surface (5 and 6 back at Los Al). How is that much different from this? Best of all, this filly often breaks sharp and that is key going this short from the rail. Curious as to the price while thinking recent GG Beyers darken her form just a tad.

FIFTH RACE

PROVOST is the value even as his upside is clearly better than all. This colt debuted at Santa Anita versus special weights and lured Rosario to ride but he only beat a couple home. Layoff line and turf were next but this time all world Prat took the call yet this colt only beat one home. Here comes another layoff but then a switch to here where this colt broke his maiden with only a 52 Beyer. Here is the key: he puts races back to back for the first time and connections find a tough spot where this guy can’t be taken. We are betting that he is still maturing and that his raw talent could shine today. FORTIFIED EFFORT has won 9 for 20 here, draws outside, and gets good race flow. WEST DAWN just likes it here while most recent was only a point from his Beyer top. Race flow could be quick if the 1, 2, and 4 all gun.

SIXTH RACE

AFRICAN FIGHTER goes for the leading barn with Negron up and that is a 39% combo. Distance tab isn’t the best at 4-0-0-2 but this horse won going 10 furlongs only four starts back. Trainer stats are good across the board. REY COLIMAN might be better on the dirt something he gets back to today. Previous barn only won at 8% so Silva Jr is simply better. Grinding style might help a tad going this 9 furlongs. SNEAKY MEEK has won going this distance so there is that. Not sure what happened last out but we do have a new jock.

SEVENTH RACE

OLD WEST broke dead last in her debut but did get some play at 3-1. This is dam’s first foal so no help there. This filly drops a notch and draws fine all while facing very little. I’M ALL THE JEDI escaped Santa Anita foes last out and went favored but still ran poorly (7 Beyer). She had trouble. Second time this dirt can only help while connections waste little time finding this filly a race. FRENCH TUDOR is the fresh face from GG. Team Wong is 34% with new runners. Yet to try a real dirt surface is noted. This filly needs to break better than last few.

EIGHTH RACE

YO Y ME is a horse for course at 23-10-5-1. Back to back chalky wins in last few should be thrice soon enough. Second time with new barn is fine as is second time leading rider. Even better is that this gelding loves 6 1/2 furlongs at 9-3-3-1. MY LUCKY MARK just likes to win at 20-7-1-2. That was a decent try two back at this distance but versus better. This gelding draws best and is in good form. New barn is 0 for 7 off the claim but the sample size is small. BOUND TO GO is sharp. He has hit the exacta going this distance in four of six starts. Other speed is the main knock but at least this guy draws outside it.

NINTH RACE

BE GONE DADDY exits a key race where 2 of 3 returned to win with figs of 83 and 65 (another finished 2nd with a 65 Beyer speed figure). This gelding gets to save all the early ground while chasing a good pace. Second time with new barn helps. This horse hasn’t won on the grass but is bred to like it. PLAYOFF BOUND is in good form and goes third off the layoff. Of six career wins, five have come on this sod (in 11 starts). Best comes today and a hint of a price. ALL UNDER CONTROL adds a half furlong, draws fine, goes third off the layoff, and likes this sod. The Brown barn is 21% on the grass and with a flat bet profit.