ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, AVENUE

FIRST RACE

High-percentage in general, Amoss barn excels with cut-back horses (33% strike rate) even showing a very solid flat-bet win ROi with route-sprint runners like IT’SFIFTYSHADETIME. Hardly the sexiest pick at likely low odds but does look quite well meant. ARTIE’S ROSE mired down at the fence last time at OP and —- draws the rail again. Turning back from route to sprint, will likely have to take back and come around, and wonder if she’s really built for that. Lone win came in slop, something to keep in mind if it rains. DESTINIQUE beat AR when they met at TP and has been logging lively local drills for Mr. Cox & co.

SECOND RACE

Trainer John Ennis bidding to become the next Wesley Ward? Ennis with a bunch of early 2yos ready to roll, all the KEE starters showing lively drills, including SHESGOTATTITUDE, who has really whistled in some 3f works. This one has a dirt pedigree while Ward’s offering, likely favorite TWILIGHT GLEAMING, has two grass works and bloodlines that suggest Royal Ascot could be the real goal this spring / summer. POUT ended a steady string with a KEE gate half-mile and a swift KEE 3f move. Maybe.

THIRD RACE

Active program for the Kobiskie card, with ALGEBRAIC perhaps the shortest-price among their starters on this Thursday program. Appeared to have no love for the Turfway Tapeta but the laststart comeback run should provide a useful platform for the jump back into dirt racing. Won last two on dirt, including a KEE score, with the clear question whether he can see out the two-turn mile. Wire could come before off-pace runners like LASTCHANCEATGLORY have a chance to get there. The latter has gotten ready for the shift back to dirt with a steady work pattern at Fair Grounds. The forward placements last year came in slow-paced races more truly “routes” than this. FRANKNJYMME’s best form is fading into the rearview mirror but won’t rule out at least a one-race revivial.

FOURTH RACE

DIVA BANKER claimed more than three months ago at TP by owner-trainer Handal, freshened, worked steadily, shows up under $5K starter allowance conditions with speed and the rail. Hmm. Looks somewhat wise-guy and could be a shorter price than she should. RADIANTRITHYM got a break after a win, which should raise at least a pink flag, but since the first published post-layoff work was a bullet half-mile, gotta figure she was getting legged up somewhere that didn’t have a clocker. Has not seen a tag since these connections took her for $5K last October and has an encouraging KEE record. TRICKIZAR, a longtime denizen of the starter-allowance ranks, cuts back from a twoturn mile to a sprint trip at which she’s never been worse than second in five tries.

FIFTH RACE

ONE NATION’s most recent one-turn, fast-track dirt race produced a Churchill MSW win with an 80 Beyer Speed Figure, a number he had run in the past. Actually handled the slop well enough last fall at CD, and this track could come up wet, and guess the longtime McGaughey assistant Medina has him ready for something decent off the training-center drills. THE BEAT has a long string of works for his comeback run and his dirt start three back was better than the subsequent Tapeta tries. $12k sales purchase in for a $40K tag in 3yo is encouraging. Guess COPA could be favored here. Beat a soft group (was 4-5 for a reason) in the overdue maiden win, and I’d swerve him at short odds tackling winners at a longer distance.

SIXTH RACE

Awkward start last out for AVENUE took him way out of the early action and cost him any chance to win that GP MSW, and will take him to turn the tables here on SOUTHERN DISTRICT. Avenue posted the fastest final quarter mile in that race, leaping forward when shown the stick in the very late stages. Looks like a horse that will enjoy the

stretch to nine furlongs, and might have given him the nod over Southern District even if the latter hadn’t drawn post 12. SD did have to wait ever so slightly for room last time, his debut, in upper stretch, but wound up getting through a hole and, start to finish, getting a very nice trip. Flashy gallop out and looks pretty good, but good enough to overcome this post? If rained onto the main his dirt-y pedigree could come into play. ALEXANDER VALLEY competitive in his two turf races and on pedigree should handle the added distance, but would guess he has less upside on the day than the top two.

SEVENTH RACE

WARRIOR IN CHIEF won nicely enough (74 Beyer - not bad for a fall 2yo router; runner-up Dolder Grand hasn’t progressed much at 3 but is all right) in his two-turn debut last fall, and after a winter break ran into subsequent Florida Derby winner Known Agenda last out, fading after disputing a solid pace. Suspect he’ll have a better chance than the win odds indicate. Blinkers on didn’t seem to do much for KINETIC SKY, who keeps producing the same relatively even, somewhat competitive dirt-route performance. Benefits from —- this soft spot. PROMISE KEEPER’s claim to contention is a sloppy-track one-turn-mile GP maiden score two back. Lasix returns after absent in the Tampa flop. Maybe he’s better than I think, but do think the price won’t be right.

EIGHTH RACE

His European form (beaten only six lengths by Mishriff, perhaps the world’s top horse right now, in the French Derby) would make OCEAN ATLANTIQUE a winner in his US debut if he can duplicate his better performances. First Lasix and has been working a good, long time in Fla (working well, too, from the video resources available) for this spot. Distance on the short side. Should be all right on a wet course if the rainy forecast holds. The price probably won’t appeal. BAKERS BAY won two of three last year after being gelded and might wind up especially competitive if this race were moved to the main track. STREET READY lost ground and went evenly in the end last out at GP in what very much looks like long-layoff comeback run meant as a tightener for this spot. Nearly won a stakes over the KEE turf last year racing with some give in the ground. Dangerous & very usable.

NINTH RACE

NILSBY gets a career restart after two poor showings as a 2yo. First of those on turf sans blinkers, second on mud sans Lasix, & now he’s first Lasix, second blinkers, aggressively spotted in a $40K maiden-claimer. As far as the mud goes, the 4/1 slow work followed by another drill 4/4 hints he can’t handle it at all, making the lone dirt race a potential toss. Capable layoff outfit. Likely overlooked in betting. PERSPECTIVE won’t be overlooked in the betting with a narrow last-start loss and Saez in the irons. Did take quite some time for him to work back after the most recent start and he’s in for less than the claim price paid — just little signposts making one wonder if the short odds are worth the risk. Trainer W Ward won with the two first-time starters he ran in dirt maidenclaimers at Keeneland during 2020. Of course there also are the previous 12 losses in a row to account for. CORNBREAD HILL would have to overcome the rail draw. Maybe. QUALITY WARRIOR clunked in the start following his last peak race.