ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 7, SHES GOT IT

FIRST RACE

It is Arkansas Derby week and it opens with a Thursday card that spotlights fillies and mares who route in the allowance feature. RISKY SITUATION gets the nod in the first race, in part because of how well he ran on the cutback from a mile and a sixteenth to this six furlong distance. He could be even sharper here, in his second straight sprint start. KAT’S HITMAN also ran a fine race on the cutback last time and has an age edge on some of these as he is 4. ROLL DINERO ROLL is a consistent sort who exits the same race as the top two choices.

SECOND RACE

HANDY moves back to a mile and a sixteenth and he won his maiden at this distance, and in a separate start at the trip put up his best career Beyer Speed Figure. SEA OF HOPE has speed and the rail and is a fresh horse as this marks his first start since October. TURN THE SWITCH showed speed over a laboring kind of track in his first start of the year last out and has reason to move forward in his second race since December.

THIRD RACE

STREET TOLL has fired competitive races in each of his last two starts, and both have come at this distance and level. He broke from the rail last time and the post he draws here might give Arrieta options. GALILEE is a February foal who started his season last out with a runner-up finish against similar. The winner of that race returned in his next start to account for an optional $30K claimer at Oaklawn with a Beyer Speed Figure of 66. TITLE SHOT debuted last out and hooked a quick crowd and the race, against steeper, was won by a more experienced rival.

FOURTH RACE

UNCLE GREGORY returned to both two turns and dirt after the synthetic-track sprint at Turfway and equaled his best career Beyer Speed Figure. UNCLE GREGORY also gets in lighter than some of these under apprentice Morales. DERBY CODE must overcome the widest post here, but moves from a starter allowance back to a conditioned claiming spot and her last win came for this price. CABERTOSS gives up recency to these, but what he lacks there he makes up for in class as one who has spent his career facing steeper. BEAR OAK has been well-flattered since his win last out at Oaklawn. The fourth-place, 10th-place and 11th-place finishers all came back to win $10K conditioned claimers in their next starts, all at Oaklawn.

FIFTH RACE

ENGLANDER looks like a logical choice in this spot. He comes off a runner-up finish at this level and distance and the Beyer Speed Figure of 67 that he earned is the best last-race number in this field. He also owns it’s best career Beyer. FAY DAN give up recency to these as he last raced in May, but he has seen steeper in Southern California. POWER BURST split the field in his two-turn debut last out and has reason to move forward in his second route attempt.

SIXTH RACE

CROWN JEWEL moves back to six furlongs and when last seen at this distance she was edged by a quality winner and equaled her best Beyer Figure. BREAK CURFEW figures to make good use of the bit of added real estate she picks up in this spot and she also draws a post that might give Cabrera options. MISS ANTIOCH was a game winner last out and now takes her show to open company, where she has had success in the past. She’s from a mare who won 14 times.

SEVENTH RACE

SHES GOT IT comes off a close-up finish at this level and the Beyer Speed Figure of 61 that she earned is the best last-race number in the field. It’s also the field’s best career number. MAKING

PROGRESS is back in a straight 3-year-old spot after facing older foes. She’s also back at one turn and she’s fared well at the configuration in the past.

SUPER STEAMY ran a big race off the bench last time and has reason to move forward in her second start since June. LIVINGMYBESTLIFE is by a stallion who is getting 28 percent debut winners.

EIGHTH RACE

The feature has drawn a well-matched field of fillies and mares, who will be traveling a mile and a sixteenth. W W FITZY is appealing as a seventime winner facing some less-experienced rivals. She also appears to have more natural speed than most of these, which could give her a tactical advantage. ALTA’S AWARD owns the field’s best last-race Beyer Speed Figure, an 84 for a runnerup finish at this distance last out at Oaklawn. She seems like one who can be closer to the pace than she found herself in her most recent out, when going turf to dirt. SARA SEA stretches back out around two turns and the last time she went sprint to route she popped a career-high Beyer Speed Figure. She could prove to be the one to catch. SARA SEA is from a multiple stakes-winning mare who had two-turn success at Oaklawn and earned $607K

NINTH RACE

INCORRIGIBLE brings speed to the table, an asset that should serve him well in a race that ends at the sixteenth pole - as with all mile races at Oaklawn. This one also draws a useful kind of post, owns the field’s best last-race dirt Beyer Figure, and could be sitting on a peak effort in the third start of his form cycle. DAY TRIP again draws a wide gate, but is back on dirt and his maiden win came on the surface. GEORGIA DEPUTY fits with these.