Noble Reflection worth the gamble

Oaklawn has a $1 million race, the Arkansas Derby, on the richest card in North America this Saturday. It’s a fine program, loaded with playable races, but I can’t get enthused from a wagering perspective about the stakes, especially the headliner.

I was somewhat skeptical of Concert Tour in the Rebel and favored Caddo River. Cue the jeers. Concert Tour dominated and if anything has looked even better in subsequent works – a rock-solid Arkansas Derby favorite.

Serious pace players pack the Count Fleet Sprint Handicap. In a true handicap world, Whitmore and CZ Rocket would carry more than 123 and 122 pounds, respectively. The race likely falls to one of those two short prices.

Lexington

I actually think a lot of Proxy, my top selection in the March 20 Louisiana Derby, a raw colt with a grand physique and ample natural talent. His brain and psychological makeup have not yet caught his physical capability, however, and with the addition of blinkers he ran basically the same race in the Louisiana Derby as in the Risen Star. Now, either of those races could prove sufficient to win the Lexington, and Proxy will be bet accordingly. But with Proxy yet to put together a complete, professional performance, and at something like even money, I don’t mind fishing around for alternatives to a horse who might wind up being better suited to turf racing (like his sister, Micheline, who will come up shortly).

Starr in in my dreams earned serious consideration. After a dismal 3-yearold debut, he surpassed, figure-wise, his winning Beyer Speed Figures from his two-win 2-year-old campaign when finishing a modest but seriously improved fifth in the Louisiana Derby. I’d guess his connections hoped to have the horse closer to the front last timeout, but Starr in in my dreams broke flat and was caught behind before he really knew what was going on, and he raced from the rear, coming up short in the final furlong of that 1 3/16-mile contest. The turnback to 1 1/16 miles in his third start off the break seems positive; post 10 is not, and this is not a colt that, to me, brims with upside.

Noble Reflection – he has all that upside. Noble Reflection made the weekly Breakout Beyers feature with his dazzling March 7 Oaklawn maiden special weight score, and if he breaks as sharply Saturday as he did there, Noble Reflection could find the front and dictate terms in what, on paper, looks like a speed-filled field. Despite flying through that six-furlong race, this is a robust, powerful-looking colt bred to go a route of ground. Is it a big ask stepping up to the Lexington from a maiden sprint? Sure, but the short-stretch finish helps, and Noble Reflection, 15-1 on the line, falls on the right side of the risk-reward ratio.

Jenny Wiley

Tamahere got loud buzz when she won her U.S. debut last fall for trainer Chad Brown. Maybe she Euro-bounced in the Matriarch, but maybe, also, she beat a very modest bunch in the Sands Point. She’s plausible, and I prefer her to Brown’s other horse, Etoile, who appears to need a longer trip for her best.

Tamahere could be a lower price than her 5-2 morning-line odds, and Juliet Foxtrot also could drop below her listed 7-2 as the obvious lone speed in an otherwise paceless race. Juliet Foxtrot, however, got better with racing both of her last two campaigns, and like the barn’s Mundaye Call, bet down last weekend at Keeneland as lone speed in the Madison Stakes, I think she’ll be run down.

For me, Micheline is the one to go get her. This filly, Proxy’s older sister, bloomed last season and came back this spring at Tampa looking like her development had continued over the winter. She kept up nicely with the speed there, encouraging for this spot, and shouldn’t mind some cut in the ground if a wet forecast holds.

Danger’s Hour

Happened to catch Hieronymus breezing at Fair Grounds when I was there for a weekend in mid-March, and he appears to have filled out very, very nicely since last seeing action in May 2020. He was fourth in that last start, the War Chant, a race that has aged very nicely, with winner Smooth Like Strait proving to be a legit Grade 1 animal. Hieronymus is going to the front here, and I think he can put the other speed,