ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 2, GABBY SQUARED

FIRST RACE

AMISTAD spent the winter here racing on the main track, mostly in longer races; based on his limited form sprinting on turf, there is an argument to be made that he is much better on this surface and he has the advantage of switching back here without facing a layoff; maiden win the last time he was on the grass is better than it even looks after having to give away early position to avoid getting hung out to dry. FALSE ALARM stepped up to try longer distances in his final two starts of 2020 and was nowhere; prior to that, he ran well in both starts over this distance at Belmont, including the loss in September when stuck wide contesting the pace and only tiring late in a race that went to closers. SCUTTLEBUZZ might be the horse to beat based on his two turf sprints to date, including that win on the drop when last seen; erased a big deficit through the final furlong of that race and starts back in a logical spot.

SECOND RACE

GABBY SQUARED debuted sprinting here last December and ran a much better race than it may appear while never in position to really run, and she came back to get very unlucky last time when stretched out; tried to fire up the rail late in that last one after committing to the inside, and may well have won that race if she had the room. HARLEM HEIGHTS just missed in her turf debut after proving to be a disappointment on the main track, then stretched all the way out and tired in the stretch before the layoff; seems vulnerable at what might be a short price. ZOIKES made one start at Keeneland late last year, where she was outrun after failing to break sharply from the gate and was ultimately closest at the finish while never a threat; thought she had a decent setup in that race but may not have figured it all out until it was too late.

THIRD RACE

ROMP dropped for the first time most recently while entered for dirt and overwhelmed that field from off the pace after always traveling well in a clean trip; comes right back in a likely spot while catching a race that may have some pace for him to attack. AMERICAN GENTLEMAN fell to a big longshot when turned back and dropped two starts back, which was also his first start with Lasix, then wired a field right back at that level with a big 80 Beyer last time; protected off the claim. RESPECT FOR ALL is two for four to start, with both losses coming in this condition, though he fell to Wood winner Bourbonic in the first of those, and was cut back in a race that went to a closer in the second; off the claim again.

FOURTH RACE

LUNE LAKE stepping up for her return to turf, which may be her best surface despite the improved dirt record over the last year or so; has raced infrequently on this surface but broke her maiden over this distance on grass, after which she earned a competitive figure in her next turf start; is not facing a strong field for the level here and she will be a price. GUARDIAN MOON made one start as a 2yo, where she scored as the favorite with a solid 69 Beyer; holds all of the upside in this spot for an excellent trainer, though Abreu does not have great numbers off of layoffs like this. SNICKET has made four starts sprinting on the turf to date and has settled for second all four times, most recently when hanging on the money at 1:5 last September; has since won a race on dirt and returns from the layoff back on the grass.

FIFTH RACE

LUCKY STRIDE has made four dirt starts since arriving stateside last summer, and she has run well in all of them, including back to back recent stakes wins out of town; has run well in both NY starts under different circumstances and is versatile enough to get any kind of trip over a distance she can handle. HOROLOGIST went 2 for 4 for Mott at the end of last year, with both wins earning her triple-digit Beyers in graded stakes company, though wonder how legit the big figure wins are based on her overall form; might be the horse to beat off the layoff. THANKFUL traded decisions

with MRS. DANVERS late last year, beating that rival on the square in an allowance race going a mile, before taking the worst of it in a Grade 3 Comely that came back fast; not sure what happened last time but she can factor if rebounding to an effort more like her Ladies win two back.

SIXTH RACE

The pace of this race is likely to come from runners with unproven turf form, making this race a bit of a puzzle from a trip perspective - that is assuming the field stays intact. KING OF SPADES is cutting back from a pair of marathon races, but distance has never been a stumbling block for him - he shows a win cutting back from 1 1/4 miles to 7.5 furlongs earlier in his career - and he has run plenty of good races in NY in the past. NOBLE THOUGHT has been in close photo finishes in three of bis last four starts, coming out on top in two of them; closer a nice fit at this level as he returns from California for a highly-underrated trainer. VETTORI KIN dropping for his NY debut following a pair of recent stakes tries off the long layoff; has plenty of back class but hasn’t won a race since scoring in the Grade 3 Louisville in May of 2018.

SEVENTH RACE

ARHAM made a promising debut when chasing down an experienced pacesetter at Gulfstream to win clear with a 91 Beyer, and he backed that race up well last time to get into contention after missing the break, only to weaken late; bred to do better with the added distance. MALIBU STAR bombed when stretched out two starts back in an effort that is still lingering as something of a warning sign; earned a solid figure when breaking his maiden over this track and distance in December, and bounced back with a better effort last time despite being carried out by a pace rival up the backstretch and around the turn, which left the strong rail open for the eventual winner. YANKEE DIVISION deserves respect due to the pair of strong recent figures for Rudy, even with the first of those being propped up by a front-running trip on a gold rail; cutting back to a better distance for this.

EIGHTH RACE

PRICE TALK finished first in each of his first three starts last year while showing handy speed and strong finishes each time; Gio Ponti loss as the favorite not as disappointing as it may seem after getting bumped at the start and then being rated back to give away position in a race that didn’t come back for him; upside for an excellent trainer. ANALYZE IT has a race available to him that would bury this field, but some question remains as to whether he is still capable of that effort after missing a lot of time; looked good handling weaker off the long layoff last September, but he was flat as the favorite in the Shadwell Turf without apparent excuse, and he is likely to take money in this race once again. RINALDI’s four wins to date have all come vs. restricted company, but he ran well in the Saranac at the end of his 3yo campaign, and also gave a good account of himself when moving right along on the lead in the Artie Schiller last November, where he only succumbed stubbornly late.

NINTH RACE

FLIPPING FUN caught nd a muddy track in his NY debut last time and was in contention past midstretch in that spot despite getting stuck wide contesting the pace in a race that ultimately fell apart; one more chance. HANGOUT showed some speed in his muddy track debut last November vs. better and tired in the stretch, then was nowhere when stretched out on turf at a big price prior to the layoff; starts back on the drop as a new gelding with Lasix on. PAVE IT finished 2nd twice from four MSW starts early on while earning competitive figures, but has missed a lot of time since blowing a clear stretch lead when last seen over a year ago; drops for his return while switching to a dangerous trainer.