ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, IN LOVE

FIRST RACE

GROVE DADDY has been a rare winner, but he found the wire first last out, fourth race with blinkers, and cleared the maiden ranks going 7f over the KEE surface, albeit a wet one. 5yo geldings sometimes find themselves and he has much better Beyer speed figures than the one his lastout win produced. Worked over the track and think the leaders will be coming back to him. SMART TIME won last May returning from an 11-month break going this 6.5f trip and has an encouraging TTC work pattern for this latest comeback. Slots in behind the speed, in front of the closers. BEST OF GREELEY faced far better at OP in his first race back from a layoff, first for new barn. Drop second time around but not a steep one. Might best suit a sit-and-finish trip but wonder if he ends up laying closer than ideal. City Drifter looks in deep to me but the other two could also be considered. Trainer L Rivelli has boxcar numbers with long-layoff comebackers such as GET HAMMERED but the two he’s run the last five years at KEE got bet (like this horse will) and showed little. CITY DRIFTER looks from this vantage point like a 5.5f horse in a 6.5f race.

SECOND RACE

Wanted to side against WALKOFF, who might go off an underlay, but he appears to have too much going for him. 1 1/16 miles with a short stretch seems like an ideal trip, he’s won over the KEE main track, he comes in fresh for a high-percentage barn with a good mid-term layoff strike rate, and, solidly established as a $20-25K open claimer, races for $7.5K more than the last claim price. The field’s youngest horse, at 4, is MONEY FOR MISCHIEF, who was a sharp $10K claim last year for the late Angel Montano. Won at KEE last year, improved into the fall, can be forgiven the last start shipping into OP off relatively short rest, and has an encouraging work pattern while entered under starter-allowance conditions. Possible, though, that he peaks next start at CD? TEZ probably will be somewhat overlooked but brings solid credentials.

THIRD RACE

TURNAGAIN TIDE’s lone start came in a race won by Idol, the 2021 Santa Anita Handicap winner. The place horse, The Sound, T Tide’s Brad Coxtrained stable-mate, went on to win three in a row, getting a 104 Beyer for his second-level allowance score. So, that was no standard late-season, older-horse maiden race. T Tide worked a near bullet over the KEE track after prepping during the winter and spring at Fair Grounds, a great place to get a horse ready for a Kentucky spring comeback. The two-turn mile should suit him. EXTREME has the look of a horse prepping in a Turfway Tapeta sprint for this dirt mile. The shape of his performance first out suggested a short route would fit and he was back on the work tab just 11 days after racing. Trainer B Colebrook has started KEE three for three and long-layoff comebacker WINNING PROSPECT has snappy local works, though the pattern seems somewhat sparse.

FOURTH RACE

Top to bottom the Ellis Park rivals HARD STRIKE beat last summer in his lone previous start weren’t all that great, but the couple behind him worked out to be decent, and he was a dominant winner of that turf route. Had to do a lot of stuff, too, for a first-timer, racing in tight and between horses most of the trip. Looked for a moment like the hole between horses he needed wouldn’t open at the three-sixteenths pole, but then it did, and the race was over in a matter of strides. Long layoff, and

McPeek doesn’t have good numbers with this kind of comeback, but if you view the specific horses in the sample, none look much like this one. The ability he showed isn’t likely to be reflected in his odds, which ought to be more than fair. Concede that FLORIFORM is the most likely winner, his good second two back coming in race from which winner and show horse returned to run one-two in the Columbia S. at Tampa. Looks like he’s been held back for this start and Juddmonte does love to win at KEE. They also have FULSOME, who didn’t develop all that much over the winter at FG and needed 9f to eke out a win over a pair whose subsequent victories weren’t all that hot. AVIANO is the other obvious contender.

FIFTH RACE

Suspect BOLD VICTORY will be solidly favored for trainer Brendan Walsh - and that is a good thing. Starting with Flown’s win on 10/15/20 Walsh has gone a remarkable 35-20-11-4 with horses starting at odds of 2-1 or lower. On “the numbers” dirt is better than synthetic. Seems to stay the 9f. Solid work pattern for comeback, drop. ADARA stuck on the AE list. Posted very wide in last two. Second-time blinkers, first-time tagged. PERFECT PAINTING showing race by race improvement and earned another step up in claiming price. Only TP Tapeta races but trains on the TTC dirt. Will be a price.

SIXTH RACE

IN LOVE beat 11 on the KEE turf in 2020 finale to clear the N1X ranks and could be just as good on dirt. Those high-level Argentine stakes defeats came at distances likely longer than he prefers, and this 1 1/16M should suit. Has been working steadily at TTC since Jan. 31, going 6f there as far back as March 6, hinting this long has been the intended spot and he’s likely sufficiently fit. Wide draw less than ideal but the jockey is fairly accomplished. WEST WILL POWER is going to be heavily favored here, and maybe he’s just too fast, but he did lose two back at 11-10 and the barn’s lone starter so far this meet, Slumber Party, ran a little flat. Maybe UNCLE KICK is prepping here for a race at IND, where he went two for two last season after being stretched to two turns, but by historical standards those are very fast Calumet training track works for the Calument farm trainer, and wonder if this horse is a little live at a long price.

SEVENTH RACE

First thing to now - every one of the Ben Ali starters races without Lasix for the first time (at leat in the running lines that show). SPRAWL hit a careerhigh 90 Beyer while racing wide in a last-start comeback run he almost certainly needed following a seven-month layoff. Claiborne, Dilschneider and Drury eschew the N2X allowance option for this short-field Ben Ali, and after showing some real signs both at age 2 and age 3, this 4yo could be set for a breakthrough at a fair price. NIGHT OPS is even money on the morning line and while he clearly fits the spot I could not promote this horse at a price like that. He’s a steady performer and has been a very useful horse, but he’s a 5yo with 20 start and roughly no room for growth, and is 2-0-0-0 at KEE, FWIW. 1 1/2 miles last out was too far and 1 mile two back was too short for TREASURE TROVE? Maker and Co. hold steady in stakes competition with horse claimed for $40K five races ago. SILVER DUST raced on turf last out just to get in a needed comeback start, but he ended 2020 on a sour note and 1 1/8 miles never has been quite his deal.

EIGHTH RACE

INTO MYSTIC was beaten on dirt last time by ELLE Z but likely is just too good for these if the race remain on turf. She’ll have to find a way through the rail but has some speed, gears, and athleticism to make the chore easier. Nipped by an in-form Got Stormy over the KEE course in 2020 before getting a no-chance trip in the BC Turf Sprint. ELLE Z is a lightly raced 4yo who keeps hitting new high levels, and I wouldn’t put another mild upset past her. She’s not a horse to be taken back, however, and is drawn inside the other potential pace, which could lead to a pressured trip. IN GOOD SPIRITS got the cutback in distance she apparently wanted last out hitting a Beyer peak while handling sharp Yes It’s Ginger in an FG N2X allowance. Fresh and ready for her second grass sprint, and should have fading front-runners at which to fire through final furlong.

NINTH RACE

NOBLE REFLECTION debuted at 2 in a good race but wasn’t quite ready to be a racehorse, fading to third. Back in action seven months later at Oaklawn, he was really ready. On the one hand, front-running maiden victories can be easy to over-rate; on the other, route-bred horses who break like a rocket and show high cruising sprint speed can be very effective stretching out. Baltas successfully pulled the maiden-sprint-to-routestakes move with Venetian Harbor, a very good filly, but maybe this is a very good colt? Great visual impression last time. On paper, the pace is against him, and no Lasix today, but willing to take a shot at the expected odds. STARRININMYDREAMS beat some solid horses going 2 for 2 as a late 2yo. Had the rail for both those FG stakes races, and after showing zero in his comeback run, he was much better last time. Lost several lengths there during the final furlong and does not have to complete that furlong here cutting back to 1 1/16 miles. I’m actually a PROXY fan but can’t back him at the expected low odds. He’s back on somewhat short rest and the addition of blinkers didn’t cure the in-race habits (he’s still somewhat baby-ish and unfocused) that have so far kept him from fully expressing his talent. Wonder if the ability truly comes out when he gets on turf.

TENTH RACE

Not the strongest Jenny Wiley ever assembled not close, in fact. You could ay you could make a case for every horse in the field - and you could say you might make a case against every horse in the field. A complete pace void except for Juliet Foxtrot, but this is a mare who each of the last two seasons got better with racing, and I wonder if she’s set to press the tactical advantage. I’ll side with MICHELINE, who had a productive and progressive 3yo campaign of 2020 and very much looked, in her 2021 debut, to have continued that forward movement. That was a pretty deep bunch in the Hillsborough and she won decisively, and the tactical speed she showed suggests she might adapt to this one-mile trip, which, to me, is the major question mark. TAMAHERE might have Euro-bounced in the Matriarch, but another consideration is the relatively soft competition she crushed in her US debut. Not a lot of overseas form to back up the notion she’s top class. Interesting she has worked up to this comeback run with a series of solo drills (at least the ones in Fla). Do concede that if she’s ready, JULIET FOXTROT can wire this group. ETOILE beat lesser over 7 1/2 overseas, though does have very strong French form lines over longer.

ELEVENTH RACE

Prevalence didn’t show a lot in the Wood but he still was a far above average maiden winner this season at GP, and he’s who STAGE RAIDER ran into in his debut. Some early speed which helped him get something out of the race, and in past KEE spring meets, C Brown-trained second-time-starting maidens going from GP to KEE have been deadly. HARVARD looks like the other obvious contender, and while he met nothing like a Prevalence first time out, he did break from the rail and have to come around for a clean run since he lacked much early speed. He’s had an active work pattern since and gotten in some KEE drills, and seems set to improve. SIX PACK was an even fourth first out, breaking poorly, like a horse who needed his debut. The runner-up won a KEE MSW last weekend.