ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 8, SHASHASHAKEMEUP

FIRST RACE

It is Arkansas Derby Day and the 13-race card has drawn a number of notable runners, including top Kentucky Derby prospect Concert Tour, champion Whitmore, $1.8 million earner By My Standards and multiple Grade 2 winner Frank’s Rockette. The opener is one of five maiden special weight races on the card, each carrying a purse of $93K. NAVY SEAL looks like a candidate to wire the field. He’s also a well-bred sort as a half-brother to both multiple stakes winner Weast Hill ($497K) and stakes winner Usual Suspect ($101K). TOPF ROAD RULES is from a multiple stakes-winning mare who ran out $266K. The race he was second in last time has produced three next-out winners, all at Oaklawn, with the third and seventh-place finishers taking maiden allowances and the ninthplace finisher, a $10K maiden claiming race. MO BETTA cuts back to one turn after showing speed around two, and that can be an effective move with a horse.

SECOND RACE

Rosario teams with BOX OF CHOCOLATES, who has been a popular claim among stables. This one was just edged in a quick sprint last time to earn what ranks as this field’s best last-race Beyer Speed Figure. On a pedigree point, BOX OF CHOCOLATES is a full brother to Leofric, a Grade 1 winner of $951K. DAVIDIC LINE ran a big race last out on the cutback from a mile and a sixteenth to six panels. WAR DETONATOR exits a quick allowance. He’s from a stakes-winning mare who banked $90K.

THIRD RACE

SIANARA has the speed to hold her position from the rail and is back in a straight 3-year-old spot. She’s from a Grade 3-winning mare who earned $98K. COPPELIA split the field last out in a quick maiden race that served as her career launching pad. Her stakes-placed dam won five races and has produced a Grade 3 winner in Once On Whiskey ($163K). MY MY MUNNY exits same quick race as COPPELIA and like that one she was making her first career start. FROSTED BLUE is a half-sister to Grade 3 winner Firing Line ($916K) and she hooked an eventual Grade 1 winner last out in Princess Noor.

FOURTH RACE

Baffert trainee FOLLOWING SEA comes off a credible race in a quick maiden allowance at Santa Anita and the Beyer Speed Figure of 77 that he earned is the best career number in this spot. He draws a useful post, has recency on his chief rivals, and will be first Lasix. On a pedigree point, FOlLOWING SEA is from a stakes-winning mare who earned $97K. HAPPYMAC shares the same sire as top choice, as both are by Runhappy. This one is a half-brother to the quick Shancelot, a Grade 2 winner of $624K. HAPPY MAC is making his first start at 3 and will be first Lasix, and the same is true of RISING EMPIRE. The latter is a half-brother to Grade 2 winner Rocketry ($789K).

FIFTH RACE

BANDIT POINT exits a sprint stakes in which he closed from last for third behind a wire-to-wire winner. The race went in good time, and he figures to be sharp on the move back to two turns. TRUCULENT brings speed to the table and has fired strong races in each of his starts at the meet. IMPOSSIBLE TASK meets some more experienced rivals, but owns the field’s best last-race Beyer Speed Figure. He’s a half-brother to Spelling Again, a multiple Grade 2 winner of $534K. Other contenders in a competitive race include SANTOS DUMONT and TASHKENT.

SIXTH RACE

The Carousel is the first of four stakes on the card and FRANK’S ROCKETTE is the class of the field as a multiple Grade 2 winner of nearly $700K. The East Coast-based runner is returning to Oaklawn after a January appearance in which she won the American Beauty. The start was her first of the year and she would seem to have reason to move forward in her second race back. EDGEWAY also launched her season last out and was an allowance winner at Santa Anita in her first start since June. She equaled her best Beyer Figure, a 94, which is the same number she earned for her memorable debut victory last meet at Oaklawn. She has the speed to show the way, or she could track FRANK’S ROCKETTE, who breaks to her immediate inside. CASUAL was second last out to Kimari, who after their meeting won the Grade 1 Madison at Kee. This one is a daughter of Lady Tak, a multiple Grade 1 winner who ran out $1.1M. CASUAL could get an ideal trip, sitting just off the speed situated to her inside.

SEVENTH RACE

Triple Crown nominee GLOBAL APPEAL has a chance to wire the field for Hall of Fame trainer Lukas. MACRON, who has seen the likes of Mandaloun, comes off a fourth-place finish in a key race. The seventh-place finisher, Heartbreaker, came back to take a $50K maiden claimer at OP with a Beyer of 66 and the 11th-place finisher, Big in the City, a $30K maiden claimer, also at OP, with a Beyer of 63. This one is a half-brother to Grade 1 winner Egg Drop ($534K). STAR SAILOR cuts back to one turn and he put up his best Beyer Figure, a field-high 80, at this six furlong distance at Del Mar. He’s from a stakes-winning mare who ran out $336K. SKIP INTRO is a half-brother to champion Whitmore ($4.2M), who runs later on the card in the Count Fleet.

EIGHTH RACE

SHASHASHAKEMEUP moves back into the overnight ranks following the Grade 3-placing at SA. He owns the field’s best last-race Beyer Figure and is returning to a surface over which he won an allowance at this distance at 49-1. STRIKE ME DOWN is back on dirt and he ran a fine race on the main track at LRC. He’s from a Grade 2-winning mare who ran out $683K and who has produced a Grade 3 winner in Golden Sabre ($332K). ONE FOR RICHIE has won two of three starts at the meet, and the winner of the race he exits has since advanced to graded stakes company at Keeneland. This one’s multiple stakes-winning dam won 15 races.

NINTH RACE

BY MY STANDARDS shortens up some in distance for what will be his first out since November and he could get an ideal stalking trip in an Oaklawn Mile that drew a good deal of speed. BY MY STANDARDS exits the Grade 1 Clark that has produced two next-out winners, with 11th-place finisher Title Ready returning nd to take the Grade 3 Louisiana at FG with a Beyer of 94, and the 14th-place finisher, Phantom Currency, an allowance at Gulfstream, with a Beyer of 93. RUSHIE also exits a key Grade 1 race, the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile. The winner came back to account for the Pegasus World Cup at Gulfstream with a Beyer of 108 and the runner-up, the Claiming Crown Jewel, also at GP, with a Beyer of 97. RUSHIE invades from Santa Anita, but is proven over the surface at Oaklawn. BLACKBERRY WINE was a powerful winner at this distance last out at Oaklawn and the Beyer Figure of 99 that he earned is the best last-race number in this field. The concern is that he must contend with opposing speed. The race here ends at the sixteenth pole, as with all mile races at Oaklawn.

TENTH RACE

GAME DAY PLAY is a two-time winner facing some less-experienced rivals. He also is back in the overnight ranks after facing stakes foes. MIGHTY MISCHIEF has speed and a post that might give Santana options. This one meets winners for the first time, but owns the field’s co-highest last-race Beyer Figure. He shares the distinction with NAME REJECTED. The latter is also making his first start against winners. UPSTRIKER hooked a quality sort last out in Highly Motivated, who last weekend ran second in the Blue Grass won by champion Essential Quality. The race this one exits also produced three next-out winners, two of them taking stakes at Fair Grounds.

ELEVENTH RACE

The champion WHITMORE is seeking a record fourth win in the Count Fleet at his winter base of Oaklawn. He could get the perfect setup courtesy of a handful of high-quality speed horses in the field. WHITMORE used his patented closing kick to capture last year’s Breeder’s Cup Sprint over C Z ROCKET. The latter launched his season last moth at Oaklawn and won the Hot Springs over WHITMORE. Their rivalry has been one of the delights of the meet. C Z ROCKET draws well, to the outside, and in his last start he closed from last to get the job done in “the shadow of the wire.” NO PAROLE has speed and the rail and is back on dirt, where last year he won the Grade 1 Woody Stephens at Belmont Park. EMPIRE OF GOLD also brings excellent speed to the table. This marks his first start since running fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint.

TWELFTH RACE

CONCERT TOUR is seeking a $1M double at Oaklawn. He invaded from Southern California last month and accounted for the seven-figure Rebel and is now back for the Grade 1, $1 million Arkansas Derby. CONCERT TOUR ran a beautiful race last time, when facing a number of these. He broke well, moved right to the front, withstood some early pressure, then controlled the pace from there to win in hand. The unbeaten colt was making his two-turn debut and his first start outside of Southern California. He draws another outside post here, and could again show the way or track the speed to his inside. HOZIER has stepped up his game with the move to two turns. He met winners for the first time in the Rebel off a maiden win at a mile and a sixteenth and ran a big second. GET HER NUMBER is proven class as a Grade 1 winner, accomplished last year in the American Pharoah. He had a troubled trip in the Rebel last out, which marked his first race since September. GET HER NUMBER would seem to have reason to move forward, while SUPER STOCK also is making his second start of the year. He was Grade 1-placed last season, when third to eventual champion Essential Quality in the Breeders’ Futurity.

THIRTEENTH RACE

Triple Crown nominee CONTINENTAL COINS makes the move to two turns and has a nice foundation of sprint starts leading up to the new distance demands of routing. This one is a half-brother to stakes winner She’s Offlee Good ($128K). ANTIGRAVITY is well-versed at the two turn trip. ARDANWOOD also is experienced at the configuration and owns the field’s best last-race Beyer Figure. He’s from a Grade 3-placed mare who overall won 3 races and banked $127K. MISTER

SNICKERS is from a Grade 1-winning mare who earned $795K and who has produced a Grade 3 winner of $496K. Another of interest is SAQEEL.