ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 5, MOON MISCHIEF

FIRST RACE

Looks as though O’Neill bought at the right time with LITTLEBITAMEDAL. He claimed the 6yo gelding for $16K off a 3rd here Feb. 15 and saw that guy validate the purchase by coming back to romp over starter allowance foes here March 13, posting a career-top Beyer. He’s back in for a tag, yes, but it’s a whole lot bigger ($40K) than they paid for him. POSTERIZE pressed the issue in that same March 13 race before ending up 2nd to the top pick as he couldn’t stay with that foe in the lane. He gets a crack at revenge here and his speed will again make LITTLEBITAMEDAL come and get him. SINGLE ME OUT looms a late threat as he drops in class.

SECOND RACE

LONE SCOUT finished with good energy at this trip on turf in his 2nd start here March 20. That shows the distance is no issue, and the footing shouldn’t be either since daddy won G1s from a mile to 12fs on dirt. This colt’s dirt debut wasn’t terrible as it came in a very fast race. He’s worked well since and his 2 sibs are multiple winners including Nakamura (18-4-3-4, $265K, 4 SPs including a G2, G3). PHANTOM DANCE tries dirt for the first time after racing on turf and synthetic, and you’d think with his pedigree (sire, grandsire and damsire all won multiple G1s on dirt including the BC Classic) he’d handle this ground. He has route experience and shown flashes of ability. He worked well here April 4 and is kin to 3 winners including Dance Again (15-3-4-3, $270K, SW, 3 SPs including a G2) and Try Flying (62-13-11-14, $344K). PAPALE has done something of which no one else in here can boast - he’s actually won a race. He easily beat maiden claimers on dirt at this trip at DMR Nov. 26 but got DQ’d. That shows he handles this trip and footing. It’s nice to see Prat take the call (he was up for that ‘win’) and there are some good works leading up to this. He’s kin to 5 winners including Dancinginhedreams (15-4-4-1, $328K, G2 SW, 4 SPs including 2 G2s).MY SUMMER DREAM ran well vs. winners on turf at this trip last time out and moving back in vs. maidens certainly helps.

THIRD RACE

LUCKYS LAST STAND showed talent in his first 2 starts, both in races like this including a sharp 2nd last time out March 14. His speed figures to have him in the thick of it from the start and with his speed shortening up a half-furlong may help. He worked smartly April 4. GERLACH’S was fairly well beaten in his first 2 starts, but not only were those his first 2 starts, they came on turf. He moves to dirt which might help and the opposition here isn’t overwhelming. His 2 sibs are both winners. GORDY’S BOY showed promise in the fall though things have tailed off since. He gets some class relief, returns to dirt and gets blinkers reapplied and maybe all that can get him back on track. All 3 sibs are winners.

FOURTH RACE

YOUR ROYAL COIL stalked and ran 4th when last seen at DMR Aug. 8. She was claimed by Lerner and while she hasn’t been seen since (which is a bit worrisome) she’s been working well, returns with blinkers and no tag attached. She has the speed to be in the thick of it from the start and her best work has come on this track. IT’S A RIDDLE comes here sharp off 2 straight wins after a couple months off. That makes her the one to beat and she showed versatility in those 2 wins, achieving the first Jan. 24 from just off the pace and the last March while dueling from the start. BELLA RENELLA was a sharp 2nd just behind ‘RIDDLE in that March 5 outing and then came back to beat $16KB foes here April 2. Those were her first 2 outings off a long layoff (7 months) so she’s obviously doing well off that layoff.

FIFTH RACE

MOON MISCHIEF was only 5th here Feb. 19 but remember that came vs. much more expensive and was his first start in over 11 months. He can benefit from that outing, today’s drop and the addition of blinkers. It’s also nice to see he’s worked smartly since and gets the meet’s leading rider (Prat). STIR THE POT showed talent over a

year ago but things soured for a while. However, he moved to this level this winter and has 2 nice 2nds in his last 3 starts, all at this level at this type of game. He might be ready to bust through and get that elusive diploma. PRINCE MAGICIAN beat the top pick when 3rd here Feb. 19 (MOON MISCHIEF was 5th) so he’s got some talent. Of course, that was ‘MISCHIEF’s first start in a long time so he figures to improve. PRINCE MAGICIAN came back to run poorly but that was routing on turf so the return to dirt, to sprinting, with the drop might add up to a much better run.

SIXTH RACE

EXAULTED looked super winning a race just like this here Feb. 12, an effort that earned him a shot at the G2 San Carlos here March 6 where he was a respectable 3rd, beaten just a nose for 2nd. The return to this level may prove a winning one. COLT FICTION continues his good form and he’s got the speed and versatility to give his rider options. Toss that dull turf sprint run here Feb. 7 (off a layoff) and he’s pretty much fired every time. GOLDEN STAR ROCK didn’t do much in his first 2 local starts but the $400K son of top sire Tapit made those starts on turf, after a layoff. It’s nice to see there’s not another layoff and the move to dirt, blinkers and Hernandez may get him back on track.

SEVENTH RACE

CONTAGION was in a funk for some time but the 5yo gelded son of Fed Biz looked like a new horse when he romped over $10K foes at this trip here Feb. 27. He bided his time and blasted home to win easily. He’s doubled in value, a great sign. CONQUEST COBRA comes off a smart win over $12,500 foes routing here March 19. He gets a multiple-level class hike which is most encouraging, as is the fact Prat keeps the call. COLOSI comes here off 2 good sprints. He moves to a route and steps up in price, but he’s won before at this trip and while he’s up in price he’s been competitive before vs. tougher. That 2nd last time out for $16K here Feb. 15 looks even better when you note 3 he beat that day came right back to win.

EIGHTH RACE

COUNTRY GRAMMER showed ample quality last summer, winning the G3 Peter Pan at SAR. He then found the G1 Travers waters a bit too deep but has had plenty of time off since and resurfaces for new trainer Baffert who’s superb off the bench. This $450K son of multiple G1 SW Tonalist was always cut out to be a nice horse and he’s run just 6 times so it’s by no means too late for him to deliver on that promise. BOLD ENDEAVOR blasted allowance foes here Feb. 6 and was then 2nd in another allowance race here March 6, that day finishing not far behind Mastering who had won his 2 prior starts and was then 4th in the Santana Mile as the favorite. He has speed and versatility. ROYAL ACT looked like a Derby horse last year. Things didn’t pan out and his form since has been a bit dodgy but after a freshening it’s nice to see no drop, that he’s worked well and lures Smith, who appears to have had options here.

NINTH RACE

MEDUSA’S GAZE has been knocking on the door and today’s drop in price may be just what the Dr. ordered. The has the speed to be well positioned from the start, which may translate to a nice stalking/pacepressing trip. LULU D’ ORO pressed the pace in a race like this here March 4 and stayed on well for 3rd. That was just her 2nd start so she’s eligible to move forward. BIG AL’S PRINCESS ran 2nd in that March 5 race, just ahead of LULU D’ ORO, so she’s a good fit. She has plenty of speed and with the rail they figure to use her speed. She’s run just 2 times so she can surely move forward.