ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 7, STARTING OVER

FIRST RACE

Wesley Ward lost another 2yo race with a favorite on Thursday. Wednesday, his 2yo firster, also favored, had a paddock incident and was scratched. Opening week, he lost with two more 2yo firster favorites. One of those two probably was best, done in after a bad start; other beaten WW faves ran solidly in defeat while bred more for turf (think: Royal Ascot) than dirt. All that getting to feeling comfortable supporting likely Wardtrained favorite PAOLINA here, because this filly does have a dirt-leaning pedigree. Suspect she will be very quick. Would guess CHI TOWN LADY is the lesser of the two Wards, but in a race lacking a lot of appealing prospects, this one also could factor. Rail-drawn MY GIRL STEVE has a nice, long work pattern and also hints at being quick - but “rail-drawn” can be a major issue in these 4 1/2 furlong dashes.

SECOND RACE

Trainer D Kobiskie winless for the meet but all his runners have performed at least solidly, most, if not all, coming back from layoffs. BLACK KETTLE didn’t seem to enjoy her synthetic debut when last seeing racing action in January at Turfway, but the start before that she returned from a break similar to this one with a clear second in a $50,000 claimer. Outside draw in short field allows jock o dole out her speed as needed, won over this trip last summer, and looks very ready off the TTC work pattern. ITS COLD IN DEHERE isn’t hapless on synthetic but appears to prefer dirt and has a string of 2020 performances for claiming prices at or near this level strongly suggesting she’s headed for a high placing. ON DECK had a good winter at Turfway but lacks previous dirt form to validate the level she hit there.

THIRD RACE

So far this meet, the Dallas Stewart-trained horses that look like they fit spots have run to that form, and SIMPLY BEGUILED looks like she fits this $20K maiden-claiming dirt route. Best figure came on turf, but the debut sprint was too sharp and a bump at the start put her farther off the pace than she needs to be in her Feb. 19 race. L Saez is given the mount here, and he does a great job of employing whatever tactical speed a horse possesses. She’s worked twice since the last start while landing in a soft-looking race. BERTRADA ran all right in a KEE maiden-claiming dirt mile last year, gets Lasix for the first time, and returns to dirt, which appears to be her preferred surface. Steady work pattern for this. TALK RADIO drops to her lowest level and tries dirt for the firs time with a pedigree suggesting she can handle the surface switch. Mott, however, has really poor numbers with maiden-claimers going turf to dirt.

FOURTH RACE

Tough call for me between FAIRCHILD and TRACY FLICK, both of whom had tough trips in their most recent race. Fairchild was caught wide without cover around the far turn and spun even wider out on the Fair Grounds course for the stretch run, finishing strongly behind a winner who got through on the inside before galloping out far in front. Subsequent works encourage, as did the turf-sprint debut. The dam, as many know, is Rachel Alexandra’s sister. TRACY FLICK took a tough DQ at Gulfstream winning her career debut since the incident took place right at the wire and didn’t appear to cost the fouled horse a placing. As for Tracy, she’d already shied from a right-handed crop and literally ran into the rail in upper stretch. They’ve taken their time running her back, which seems like a good idea, and she could easily win this. First-timer NAKED ON THE BEACH’s lone sibling to race won its turf debut, and that’s an encouraging brace of TTC works for a horse that will be a long price.

FIFTH RACE

Layoff lines abound in this second-level dirt-sprint allowance with a $62.5K claiming option. GET THE PRIZE missed most of 2020 but was a horse of obvious ability in 2019 and notched a nifty come

back win last out at Fair Grounds. Had ample recovery time and is well drawn for a comfortable front-end trip. DEAN MARTINI seems like he could be poised to break through at this level - but that has been the case in several starts at this point. Do think the cutback has helped, but I don’t think he’s going to get much of a trip from this rail draw.

BANKS ISLAND returned last June from a long layoff to win nicely at Churchill but immediately required another extended vacation. Since been gelded. Looks ok, not great, in the work video I could find, but that was from way back in February. Entirely possible.

SIXTH RACE

Seems like W Ward wouldn’t mind winning the training title this meet. Hit in the Thursday nightcap with a first-time start in a maiden claimer and here drops BOURRE’ TRICK from four MSWs into this $30K maiden-claimer. Even cutting back from routes he seems to have the speed to lead. Turned in a 59 & change 5f working on the KEE dirt after his Turfway Tapeta comeback run in February, and has kept to a steady pattern since. Trainer E Kenneally riding a two-race win streak with firsttime starters in maiden claimers, both those scores coming last fall at CD. The work pattern on debuting CONVECTION is scattershot, to say the least, but I think he could be well meant. Can live with the published $80K purchase price debuting for this tag, though prefer horses racing for more than they cost. Speaking of which, SPEIGHT AND MALICE shows a $110K purchase price and after a couple turf MSW tries is summarily dropped into a mid-level maiden-claimer. He comes out of a good race and has gotten two leg stretchers over the KEE main track.

SEVENTH RACE

Other than the failed blinkers experiment in the Gio Ponti, STARTING OVER has nothing but strongly contending form for this N1X allowance, his first start since being moved into the Chad Brown barn. Faced much better and finished off the slowpaced, 10f San Marcos last time encouragingly, and appears not to have missed a beat in training since shipping to Brown in Florida. His first two races, along with pedigree, hint he could handle dirt if this comes off. BUY ME CANDY deployed a variety of running styles during his 2020 campaign and had blinkers removed midway through - looks like a work in progress. Got legged up for 2021 debut at FG before logging three local drills, and I’ll guess he’s ready for something better first time out this year. JUULSTONE was back on the worktab 13 days after his January comeback from a long layoff and has kept to a steady breeze pattern since, which makes one think this spot has been the target for quite some time. Likely needed the last start and has ample upside on the day.

EIGHTH RACE

After an exciting start to her career early in 2020, AIN’T NO ELMERS has failed to show too much progression, but there are a number of potential excuses that might make her development look worse than it’s been. She broke from the rail in her two stakes races later last year, probably needed her first start back this season, and apparently hated the wet track last out at OP. Now she has a sweet draw, a fast recent work, and a solid chance to clear the condition at a air price. PALACE AVENGER ran for a $75K tag in 2019 but came back to action in 2020 a much stronger filly. Think she showed her ceiling when only third, fading a bit late, after being given a stakes shot last fall at KEE, but that was not a bad race. Strongly suspect she’s fit and ready to roll here, but the inside draw could pose a challenge. If Palace Avenger, Anna’s Fast, and Elmers hook up and go too fast, CLUB CAR could come rolling and post the upset. Gotten a little breather since the no-Lasix third in the G3 at LRL in Feb.

NINTH RACE

PICASSO COLLECTION wheeled outside and closed her final quarter mile in 22.69 seconds to finish second by a neck to a decent filly while making her career debut over the KEE sod last fall. That, and not the two Turfway Tapeta starts, is the performance pertinent to this grass race, and she’s gotten in ample TTC work while attracting Rosario, a great jockey for a turf closer. BLACK SAND was all the betting rage in her career debut at SAR last summer and expect a similar wagering dynamic in her comeback run here. Didn’t show much first time out and I could find no workout video to assess her training for this start with Lasix added. MISCHEVIOUS MEL is the first foal to race out of Know Clouds, a sister to four turf-route stakes winners. Solid turf-sprint debut a good point of departure for this stretch to two turns.